October 9th, 2015

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Goldman Demolishes Jobless Claims Hype: "This Does Not Signal A Booming Labor Market"

As we pointed out previously, the growing convergence between BLS-reported initial jobless claims (at 42 year lows) and reported job cuts (highest since 2009) suggests someone is lying. It appears we have found the cuplrit as Goldman Sachs confirms that changes in gross labor market flows (e.g. gross hires and quits), as well as changes in the unemployment insurance benefit take up rate, affect the relationship between jobless claims and employment growth over the cycle. For this reason, today’s low level of jobless claims should probably not be taken as a sign of a booming labor market.


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The Dumbest Thing You Will Read Today... Maybe Ever

Dear Americans, meet your venerable central planners:


So, according to the Fed's academic experts, the US economy is not, well, the US economy, it's not Y = C + I + G + NX, it's not the product of all goods and services created in the United States...  it's this:


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Aging Prison Population Sends Health-Care Costs Soaring

In a year when the nation’s overall prison population dropped, the number of older inmates grew rapidly in 2014, continuing a trend that translates into higher federal and state prison health care spending.


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The High-End Consumer Is Rolling Over: Will Apple Save The Economy From A Recession This Time?

The latest BAC credit and debit card spending data is out and it is not pretty, and not just for the mid-level consumer who, as documented previously, has been tapping out ever since April as the following Gallup consumer spending chart shows but also for the high-end.


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Forget Potassium: Kazakhstan Is Now America's Top Supplier Of Uranium

There's one thing resource downturns are good for: seeing which projects and regions are the strongest in industry. And we got another big indication this week that there's one global leader when it comes to uranium mining...


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Stocks Slide After Fed's Evans Takes October Off Table, Fears China Growth Weakness

It appears bad news is bad news again. Fed's Evans just played "bad cop" to any hopeful talking head (Fed's Dudley earlier predicted US rate hike this year), implicitly taking October off the table...


The market's reaction to this "way lower for longer" comment was negative.


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Crude Jumps Back Above $50 As US Oil Rig Count Declines For 6th Straight Week

Following last week's biggest rig count decline in 5 months, Baker Hughes reports a smaller decline of 9 oil rigs this week to 605 - the lowest since July 2010. WTI Crude was trading just below $50 as the data printed and jumped above it on the rig count drop.


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Economists Finally Admit, Odds Of A US Recession Are On The Rise

As the evidence, that the US economy is either in or near a recession, mounts (confirmed by a new cycle high in inventories-to-sales just today), it appears even the most ardent optimists are admitting the odds of a US recession are on the rise. As Bloomberg reports, for the first time in 14 months, economists year-ahead recession probability estimates rose (to their highest level in 2 years).


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China Threatens The U.S., Says Will "Not Tolerate Violations Of Its Territorial Waters"

"We will never allow any country to violate China's territorial waters and airspace in the Spratly Islands, in the name of protecting freedom of navigation and overflight," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a regular news briefing."We urge the related parties not to take any provocative actions, and genuinely take a responsible stance on regional peace and stability," Hua said in response to a question about possible U.S. patrols.


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Happy Days Are Not Here Again

The Dow-Jones Industrial average closed over 17,000 today, for the first time since August. Do not misinterpret this recent rise. Happy Days are not here again.


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Credit Suisse Stuns Investors With 50% Bigger-Than-Expected Capital Raise

Hot on the heels of Deutsche Bank's admission that all is not well, Credit Suisse's announcement last night of a major capital raise was greeted by buying pressure from investors. However, reality punched them in the face this morning as CS releasaed its investor day details and, as Bloomberg reports, is looking to raise up to CHF8 billion (almost 50% larger than Goldman Sachs investor survey suggested). Clearly, CS' has a much more massive capital shortfall than expected.


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Santelli & Hunt Warn About "Dire Consequences" Of Negative Rates

As more and more Fed speakers, talking heads, and status-quo-protectors talk of, beg for, and demand negative interest rates (NIRP), the mainstream is starting to wake up to the possibility of this farce coming to America. As Lacy Hunt tells Rick Santelli in the brief clip below, "the evidence is overwhelming that QE was more of a negative than positive," and warns the consequences of NIRP are dire (and The Fed has the tools to enginner it) as "to make it effective they would effectively have to call in the currency."


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Gold Jumps To 3-Week Highs On Heavy Volume

For the fourth time today, gold has been aggressively bid higher. The latest move broke recent stops and took the precious metal to 3 week highs on heavy volume...

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