Archive - Jan 2009

January 31st

Weekly Chart Overview

Reading some GS equity weekly data. Key charts are presented below.
Note: as have been getting this question quite a bit, GS has the following most recent 2009 and 2010 Earnings estimates for the S&P500 (according to GS equity team; would imagine their credit teams has much different conclusions: see UBS case):

The ISDA CDS Settlement Auction is A Hidden Goldmine for Cash-Rich Accounts

When I discussed the basis trade opportunity, the conclusion was that arbitrage in the secondary (and by extension primary) market exists due to significant dislocations in liquidity. Sure, one can argue that immediate culprits for the arbitrage have to do with counterparty risk and funding costs, which makes sense, but those are merely derivatives of the liquidity disconnects between different brokers, their accounts, and any permutations thereof.

January 30th

The Push To Postpone the Inevitable Collapse Is Coming To An End

The only man with cojones to call the depression a depression, David Rosenberg, of what is now Bank of Countrywide Lynch, is reading behind the BS that was this morning's highly suspect GDP number, and expects the current quarter's annualized GDP decline to hit -6.3%! The two items that attract his attention are consumer and capital spending, declining 3.5% and 27.8%, respectively. So where did the fudging occur to result in the upside surprise: inventories.

Nassim Taleb's Facebook Accountability Initiative

Nassim Taleb of Black Swan and fat tail fame, has created a Facebook site called "Make Bankers Accountable." It is feasible that this could become the 21st equivalent of the million man march on Washington. We fully endorse the initiative. Maybe eventually Obama will realize just how angry the general public is becoming.

Nassim Taleb's Facebook Accountability Initiative

Nassim Taleb of Black Swan and fat tail fame, has created a Facebook site called "Make Bankers Accountable." It is feasible that this could become the 21st equivalent of the million man march on Washington. We fully endorse the initiative. Maybe eventually Obama will realize just how angry the general public is becoming.