Archive - Oct 11, 2009

A California Court case is headed for a resolution. It looks like AIG is the loser. But that means the taxpayers will suffer. If the case is overturned then the taxpayers will suffer. Another no win situation for the folks writing the checks.

Go long Gannett at your own peril (although the short squeeze has a little more to play out so you are probably cool for a few more days). According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, in a memo submitted to staff on Friday, "USA Today publisher David Hunke said the average circulation at the Gannett Co.-owned newspaper was 1.88 million from April through September. That marks a loss of 398,000 copies, or 17 percent, from the same period the year before at the newspaper, which is printed on weekdays only." The reason for this unprecedented drop, which will put the paper in second position behind a growing Wall Street Journal, is the "growth of online news and the slump in travel pummel the newspaper."

First Steve Jobs and now Bruce Wasserstein? The head of Apple has had his share of disclosure issues regarding his health, which recently culminated with an (accelerated) liver transplant. It appears the CEO of Lazard could be next up on the health rumor pole. According to Bloomberg, Wasserstein "is in a “serious” condition after being hospitalized for an irregular heartbeat." The investment bank has added that it would "not be providing additional updates at this time." Could this confirm rumors from over 3 years ago that all is not as good with its CEO as Lazard would like to make it seem?

Like him or hate him, the author of The Black Swan does provide a unique and interesting perspective. Here is his entire presentation to the Long Now foundation from early 2008, a few short months before everything starting collapsing, and, in many ways some would say, proving him right. Of particular note: Taleb's personal disdain for "experts" of all sorts, is second only to that of Buffett and Munger.

On Sept. 4, the NYMEX October futures contract for natural gas closed at $2.73/mmbtu, a 7-year low, as the ratio of oil to natural gas prices ballooned to 25-to-1, compared to its energy conversion ratio of 6-to-1.

Now, just one month later, natural gas has rebounded 75% to close at $4.77/mmbtu for NYMEX November delivery last Friday on record high levels of natural gas in storage, leaving investors to wonder if prices have bottomed out and it's time to jump back into the market, or if the sector is dead.

The cremation of the dollar is spreading as other Central Banks realize what a nifty trick currency devaluation is. The BBC notes that tomorrow the CEBR (Centre for Economics and Business Research) will present a new forecast which calls for the BOE rate to remain at 0.5% until 2011, and to hit 2% in 2014 at the earliest. Furthermore, the pound will be the next carry currency, as it is now expected to drop to $1.40, and below €1. The culprit is the same as in the US: out of control budgets, which will be "moderated" by tax rises (precisely the thing Goldman was warning against earlier) and spending cuts. And, lastly, the CEBR sees the UK's QE program increasing by nearly 50% from £175 billion to £250.

This weekend’s WSJ interview with Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs by Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. is worthy of commentary by both sides of the Goldman fence: those that subscribe to the theory that Goldman is the Matt Taibbi coined “..great vampire squid..” or those that have taken Mr. Blankfein’s recent public apology to heart and have accepted his words that “…Goldman wants to be a force for good…”.

The last part of the Max Keiser interview with Janet Tavakoli. All relevant topics covered.

"Over the full ten-year period, we now see the deficit cumulating to $10½trn, up from $9trn previously." - Goldman Sachs

There's been a coup.

The global pension crisis is a major concern. The uptrend in equities in Q3 boosted pension returns in Canada and elsewhere, but this will do little to address long-term concerns on the sustainability of pensions. After losing 31% in their last fiscal year, Ohio fund's annual report detailed how long it would now take for its investments to put the fund back on track. Officials simply said: "Infinity."

I want to state that equities are for renting not owning at this juncture.

• Russia economy to shrink 7.5% in 2009 according to President Medvedev (BBC)
• Medvedev: Slump deeper than forecast (WSJ)
• Andy Xie: Why one bubble burst deserves another (Caijing)
• Paranoid theories can't take the shine off gold (FT)
• US States face "unbelievable" revenue shortages (Reuters)
• October surprise from bank earnings? (MarketWatch)
• Employers have fewer jobs to offer (WSJ)