Archive - Oct 14, 2009

The bell ringed a little louder today at 4PM with a nice 5-digit print for the Dow. People were no doubt clapping and smiling on the floor of the NYSE, far detached from the emails going around pointing out how much higher most commodities are compared to the last time we crossed 10,000, or how the dollar lost 25% in the meantime. Why wouldn't they clap? It's working! Printing cash in the end will make almost every asset go up. The only asset class that should not be going up is Treasury Bonds, but since part of the printing scheme consists of supporting that market... well everything is up other than the USD!

Heads up!

For my Zero Hedge debut, I decided to introduce myself to readers by making an admission. Yes, I am a value investor. This means that I refuse to chase liquidity driven rallies and to buy stocks that are discounting operating margins and earnings that may not be realized for years. Sorry if this makes me an investing lunatic. But, if that is the case, I assume I will fit in quite well here at Zero Hedge. Welcome to my world.

The FDIC is proposing new rules that will allow banks to lower underwriting standards and capital requirements in order to encourage them to rewrite commercial real estate loans. This will cause more deflation, stagnation, and tightening of credit and will lengthen the recession/depression.

With everyone cheering the US economy finally completing its first lost decade, and likely the first of many, it is worthwhile to compare the top ten Dow Jones stocks by market cap today and ten years ago. What is notable is the rotation out of pharma companies, with both Merck and Pfizer dropping out of the ranking, and their replacement with taxpayer capital proxies, in the face of JP Morgan (#4) and Bank of America (#9). As both of these companies have achieved phenomenal profitability (and a resulting stock price appreciation) almost exclusively courtesy of the inverted yield curve and numerous other boons from the Fed, their market cap contribution should be carefully considered for whether it is sustainable or is one-time item (assuming the QE 1.0-xxxx.0 liquidity pump ever runs out). Also notable is CNBC parent GE's fall from grace, and its over $200 billion loss in market capitalization.

Anyone remember the classic movie "Rollerball" from 1975?? Reminds me of today's financial markets, where "Inflation" vs. "Deflation" oriented teams roll around in a circle annihalating each other until all the players are dead. Meanwhile, Lloyd Blankfein sits in the executive box, relishing in the action.

A year after the government applied many extraordinary measures to resuscitate the banking industry, the bleeding has slowed, but it hasn't stopped. Meanwhile, bank stocks have rallied off their winter lows, driven primarily by nonbanking businesses such as fixed-income trading and investment banking. There are several factors behind the big banks seeminly impressive performance....

Garrison Satch walked through the lobby of the old 23 Building on Wall Street and winked at the receptionist. Fannie was wearing red that day and was quick to return a faux-demure smile. However, his thoughts quickly turned to VeRA–not a woman, but a secret initiative launched by the owners of the Building and the New York Stock Exchange. VeRA had her own underground facility that was accessible from both the 23 Building and the NYSE at 11 Broad Street. She also had a street entrance, but...

Developing story per WSJ. LAZ halted. And yet again, questions for the SEC on companies reporting potentially misleading health information on key individuals.

Here I show a direct comparison of my "on the street, grass roots" and "spreadsheet" observations to that of what is portrayed in the media. Let me know if you see any discrepancies...

Congress takes a dive before round 1 of the boxing match even begins.

Ever more investors are fleeing from not just the 30 year Treasury but the 10 year as well. Money is rapidly congregating in the whatever yields the sub 10 year space is providing. The fact thatthe upcoming QE 2.0 liquidity and housing stimulus does not contemplate UST purchases is definitely not helping.

"With respect to the large-scale asset purchase programs, some members thought that an increase in the maximum amount of the Committee's purchases of agency MBS could help to reduce economic slack more quickly than in the baseline outlook." - Fed on The Upcoming Quantitative Easing 2.0

Another great representation of the amazing loss of purchasing power by the US public are today's oblivious statements about the Dow at 10,000. While in absolute terms the Dow may cross whatever the Fed thinks is a necessary and sufficient mark before QE begins to taper off (Dow crosses 10k just as Treasury purchases expire), the truth is that over the past 10 years (the last time the DJIA was at 10,000) the dollar has lost 25% of its value. Therefore, we present the Dow over the last decade indexed for the DXY, which has dropped from 100 to about 75. On a real basis (not nominal) the Dow at 10,000 ten years ago is equivalent to 7,537 today! In other words, not only have we had a lost decade for all those who focus on the absolute flatness of the DJIA, but it is also a decade where the US Consumer has lost 25% of purchasing power from the perspective of stocks! You won't hear this fact on the MSM.

JPMorgan disclosed today that it has provisioned $8.785 billion for compensation for the 9 months ended September 30. Based on the 24,828 employees currently working for Jamie Dimon, this implies an accrual of $353,834 per employee (this excludes the accrual to be set aside in Q4). The number is a 34% increase over the prior year period, and represents 38% of revenues for the first nine months of the year. Run rated, the median JPM employee should expect to make $471,779.