Archive - Oct 2009

October 29th

Tyler Durden's picture

Albert Edwards: "The Trend Is Your Friend Until It Hits A Bend"





"But, having flagged up so strongly that one should tactically become a buyer of equities on
the upturn of these indicators, I failed to follow my own advice! To be perfectly honest, as the
market powered ahead, I, like so many others, waited for the pull-back that never arrived. Do I
feel like a grade 1 moron? Yes, I most sincerely do. Should I be beaten mercilessly to within
an inch of my miserable life? Definitely. But I remain convinced we are still in a structural bear market and that this economic recovery rests on such shallow foundations that it will be washed away by the first moderate wave. Many clients and salespersons point out though that lead indicators, including the ECRI, suggest instead that a traditional V-shaped recovery might unfold with 10%-plus quarterly GDP advances just over the horizon." - Albert Edwards, Soc-Gen

 

Cheeky Bastard's picture

European Highlights: October 29





These are some of the more important stories concerning the European economy

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Daily Highlights: 10.29.09





  • 1,578 jewelry retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers fail in US from Jan-Sept'09.
  • Asian share markets continued to fall after US markets sapped investors' appetite for risk.
  • Fed is ending Treasury purchases that held down yields, stabilized housing.
  • New-Home Sales in US unexpectedly falls 3.6% as end of first-time credit nears.
  • Norway lifts key rate to 1.5%, becoming first in Europe to reverse easing.
 

Marla Singer's picture

Flash Traffic: GDP +3.5% (v. 3.2% / Previous -0.7%)





GDP +3.5% (v. 3.2% / Previous -0.7%)

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: October 29





  • Sticking to the tar baby that is AIG (Bloomberg)
  • Reversal of Fortune for AIG? Fingerprint evidence on insulin bottles appears to have smudged. (WSJ)
  • Shocked, shocked to learn that zombies don't lend (NY Times)...
  • ...perhaps the addition of 535 new board members may explain the lethargy? (WSJ)
 

Reggie Middleton's picture

Deposit Insurance Arbitrage





Hey, the little banks are doing their derivative thang too!

 

inoculatedinvestor's picture

The Unforgettable Lessons of Hyman Minsky





In the ongoing debate between the so called freshwater and saltwater economists about how the US got into this mess and how we are going to get out, what somehow often gets lost are the prophetic words of Hyman Minsky. Investors would be well advised to understand Minsky’s ideas concerning financial instability, especially given the current market euphoria.

 

October 28th

Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: HITECH - Your Medical History In The Machine





In the future, a visit to your family physician, or any specialist, will begin with a quick scan of the computer screen, where a few keystrokes will tell the doctor everything he or she needs to know about you – all the way from how much you weighed at birth, to X-rays of that bone you broke when you flipped your motorcycle thirty years ago, to how much you spent on blood work last year, right up to the hypertension pills you took after dinner yesterday (and maybe even what you ate, although hopefully not).

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Market Correlations





Due to the recent abnormal moves in the equity and credit markets, (anything lower should be considered quite abnormal), coupled with a vicious rebound in vol, we present some scatterplots which emphasize just how skewed (overpriced) the S&P is relative to the other correlation measures.

 

Leo Kolivakis's picture

To the Moon Or to the Sun?





As I stated before, there is an unprecedented amount of liquidity in the global financial system that can easily lead to another bubble sooner than you think. Is the market "going to the moon"? You can call me crazy, but my bet is still that the market is going to the sun and it will melt up faster than it takes Bill Gross to blow out his midnight candles.

 

Cheeky Bastard's picture

The Catastrophic Economic Impact of Cap and Trade





Many people are wondering what will, the impact of the proposed Cap and Trade legislature, be. A renown climatologist David Kreutzer Ph.D offered his view on the impacts of the proposed legislation in his testimony before The Energy and Commerce Committee on April 22nd 2009. This is what he said.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman's Extended GDP Analysis





"We estimate that real GDP grew 2.7% (annualized) in the third quarter. Our number is below the Bloomberg consensus of 3.2%, probably because our estimate of the pace of inventory liquidation is more aggressive than that of other forecasters." - Goldman Sachs

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Additional Perspectives On CNBC Viewership





Our post yesterday highlighting the 50% decline in CNBC YoY viewership seems to have generated a bit of controversy. In order to preserve objectivity, we take this opportunity to present the overall shift in monthly CNBC viewership over the past two years, where both the spike in CNBC viewers in October 2008 is quite visible, as are the flat trendline in the business channel's demo (A25-54) and the declining trendline in its total viewership (P2+). Whether this trend is something that should prompt Jay Yarow at Business Insider to claim that that CNBC is "crushing it" is somewhat open to interpretation. And for those asking, a two year comparison, ignoring the outlier October 2008 data set, indicates a flat demo and an 8.4% decline in CNBC's total audience. Indeed, in an a "new normal" economy, this could indeed be the new crushing it.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

If It's A Fake, It's A Good One!





Fundamentally, I have discussed several times that the business cycle and the upswing in ISM was scheduled to top out around November or December. Economic news has started to disappoint. There are now worries that GDP, which was even said to peak reach +5% annualized growth in Q4, might disappoint a bit tomorrow, and has already for the UK and China, along with lower revisions to bad Q2 numbers. The risk is that given that consumer confidence is still very low, any slowdown in the progress will also impact cap-ex plans for 2010, and you are down to relying to governments only to hope a breakeven in growth. Also housing is a problem we are far from done dealing with. I agree with Bil Gross that it was 50% overvalued from 2007 highs. Well there is still quite a way to go.

 
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