Archive - Dec 4, 2009

"We expect real GDP to grow 3% (annualized) in the fourth quarter, slow to a 1½% pace in late 2010, and then gradually reaccelerate in 2011." - Goldman Sachs Team Jan, not Team Jim

Gold futures register a "Multiple Confluence" of sell signals across several time-frames ...

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The degree of insider trading in this market is getting ridiculous. And the strangest thing is those who are executing on blatantly obvious material, non-public insider information, are no longer concerned the least bit about getting caught as they realize that the "mighty" SEC will do nothing against them, courtesy of the example the SEC has set by finding absolutely nobody "responsible" (except, of course, the regulator's own future employers who thus get immunity from prosecution) for the greatest market heist in history in which over $5 trillion has been transferred from the middle class to the Wall Street oligarchy (future providers of paychecks for SEC staffers).

Today's grotesque example of the SEC's futility to act as even a modest deterrent to insider trading activity: New York Community Bancorp (which, just so happens, is a $602 million recipient of TLGP debt), whose stock surged in the final minutes of trading for reasons (then) unknown. As reader QevolveQ pointed out at 5:30 pm, the activity in both the stock and the calls of the company was many standard deviations away from average and raised major red flags. Those questions were quickly put to rest when it became known at 6:33 pm that NYB would in fact receive FDIC subsidies to acquire newly failed AmTrust Bank in a transaction that would be "immediately accretive to earnings."

The interview that may have sealed T^G's fate. Even Timmy is slowly realizing that the Administration will need to find a way to deflect Main Steet's anger at Goldman and keep it focused exclusively on Wall Street instead of equating it with Obama et al. The problem is - you make some very serious, tentacled enemies in the process. Geithner also flip flops on his prior position on the transaction tax. While before he was more opposed to the transaction tax than even Marla, his new "windsocked" position on the topic may now provide a challenge even to Nitric Oxide inhibitors.

The man who has benefited more from governmental subsidies for financial companies (which also happen to comprise his core investments) than anyone else, Warren Buffett, has decided to cry foul and complain to the SEC over what is quickly becoming a war in the news wire world. Turns out, his Business Wire firm, which is one of the top two distributors of official news and information from public companies, has realized that subsidies are actually not all that cool, especially when one is not on the receiving end of wasteful capital spending. As a result Buffett has come to the brilliant conclusion: "Business Wire contends that subsidization would be anti-competitive." We wonder how long it will take before Mr. Buffet concludes the obvious - that government subsidization of his pet Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs has very much the same anti-competitive results? We are not holding our breath. Warren has once again proven that while the word hypocrite may be a tad strong in describing him, it does serve quite well.

"While much of the focus was on the overall number, the breakdown by category was less reassuring. Those areas of the economy that would naturally be associated with a sustainable rebound in activity, including manufacturing, trade, transportation and utilities, and construction, are still hemorrhaging jobs. Moreover, recent developments suggest that two categories which did see respectable gains, education and health care, face major headwinds in the period ahead. With municipal budgets under growing strain, school budgets -- and education-related hiring -- have nowhere to go but down. And with all eyes now focused on the rising cost of health care, the pressure to reign in spending will only increase." - Michael Panzner

We will post this without much commentary as the probability we would otherwise be sued for grossly indecent language in a public venue as well as libel and slander is very, very high.

Well, its official. The program robots gunning the "short dollar" and "long stocks" trade were shredded today. Along with various other Forex Gridbot and Forex Megadroid players. Huge moves everywhere in currencies, gold, etc., yet stocks remain pinned near the highs, with the Transports probing new highs. Without the EUR/USD meatball, what do we do next?

All the fabrications behind the BLS numbers in one easy to digest cartoon. And for those who wish to know what the December NFP number will be, we suggest FOIAinf Obama's TV tour schedule and juxtaposing it with January BLS releases. After all, someone has to take over Oprah's "feel good" show.

It appears that all the improvements in the housing market have not been due to market corrections, but are from government stimulus, and the numbers are fake. Such actions will only delay a recovery and housing prices will continue to fall.

Supporters of an escalation of the Afghanistan war often respond to criticism by asking "okay smart guy, what would YOU do to fight Al Qaeda in Afghanistan?"

Here's one answer ...

A 4% move in 4 hours. At least with the gold bubble out of the way, stocks are fully apprised of what to anticipate. Somewhere Tim Geithner is congratulating himself for a strong dollar job well done. Of course, this does little to resolve the several trillion of worthless crap on bank balance sheets whose "value" just went in the non-FDIC preferred direction. And thus the Sec Tres is reminded why he is scroomed: there is no way out now - either jobs have to revert to trendline (the BLS would need to, ironically, hire humans over Kool-aid infused monkeys to do the next data analysis), or banks will be soon knocking on Sheila Bair's door, reminding that they were just kidding about that TARP payment. In that sense Napoelon Iceman Dynamite, Fred Mishkin is correct that gold is merely a sideshow.

It doesn’t take a fancy European name like Jan or a PhD to take the guesswork out of the
monthly Non-Farm Payroll data. A simple 3-factor model can predict payrolls within spittin’ distance of the actual post-revision result. The monthly average of the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims (sa), the monthly average of the insured unemployment rate (sa), and the %Y/Y change in employee withholding taxes.