Archive - Feb 27, 2009

(Please read update 4 for very important additional information)

Rating agencies just love reminding people they are still around.

Rating agencies just love reminding people they are still around.

Developing story: WSJ reports that bondholders, tired of getting diddled by management and the UAW, will show everyone who is boss, and have demanded a meeting with Steve Rattner and his car task force. It was only a matter of time before Rattner would get buddy buddy with his old wall street crowd who will now demand bond security concessions and federal guarantees...

We tend to get accused of being propagators of pessimism porn. We will get you the good news as soon as we see it. In the meantime...

• California announces state unemployment rises to 10.1%
• Citi put on outlook negative by S&P.

Summary from the report:

Or at least according to Robert Prechter, who had forecast the 1987 stock market crash, and is chairman of popular technical research firm Elliott Wave International. It is not like the Legion of Doom really needs any more groupies, but if that's the man's opinion we will take it.

In a piece that would be hilarious if it wasn't serious, Bloomberg discloses that as a result of crushed consumer confidence, more and more Americans are preparing for the metaphorical (and literal) end of days.

"A growing number of Americans are stocking the basement with Spam and
marketable gold, while they peek out from behind the curtains with their firearm

In a piece that would be hilarious if it wasn't serious, Bloomberg discloses that as a result of crushed consumer confidence, more and more Americans are preparing for the metaphorical (and literal) end of days.

"A growing number of Americans are stocking the basement with Spam and
marketable gold, while they peek out from behind the curtains with their firearm

Shareholder trigger fingers twitching. Market bottom speculation looks to be delayed by yet another day. Curiously, GE CDS wider by 20 bps from 700 on the news, despite the cash conservation nature of the move... nothing makes sense anymore

The bad news for creditors of bankrupt Lehman Bros just keep coming.

Today the CFTC, which Harry Markopolos had no choice words against in his congressional testimony, and so far has not seen a lot of public anger for lack of action and complacency, has started turning on the afterburners.

The ETF bubble looks like it may be the next one to burst. WSJ just out that the CFTC is probing the USO ETF for price moves coinciding with trades in and out of crude-oil contracts. The USO has recently gotten prominent media attention over allegations that it is a perpetually value bleeding asset, and potentially a pyramid structure.

Just what the auto industry needs: Ford, which may have foolishly avoided government aid so far, announced U.S. auto sales in February fell even more compared to January, when the annualized sales rate was the lowest since 1981. Ford sales analyst George Pipas also had this bleak comment to share "We don’t know where the bottom is." January's SAAR was 9.6 million and February numbers which comes out next week should further cement the case that U.S. automakers are simply unviable in current form.

Thanks to an intrepid reader who pointed out Seth Klarman's must-read 1991 book "Margin of Safety" is easily accessible on the internet, we are presenting the link to where it can be found on rapidshare.

Fox Pitt analyst Gary Ransom says to be very wary when Berkshire posts earnings tomorrow, warning results may be the worst since Buffett took over the company in 1965. As a result of equity losses and writedowns on derivative bets, the Oracle of Omaha's book value per share, or intrinsic value may have dropped by 8.5%, which will be only the second time this metric has declined under Buffett's command, the only previous time being 6.1% in 2001.