Archive - Mar 2009

Paulson keeping it real as usual

Paulson keeping it real as usual

Paulson keeping it real as usual

Here is something for all those who say we are permadoom sayers... Fresh from gimme credit, and we tend to agree. A full blown implosion of Citi would be the Mutual Assured Destruction to everyone with exposure to Citi, which is... well... everyone, whether it is by 1 or 6 degrees of separation. Betting on Citi's demise is ironically just like buying US Sovereign CDS: you have a high likelihood of being right, but if you are, the money you make (assuming someone honors the contract you are collecting under) will be worth just the paper it is written on.

From GimmeCredit:

The most flagrant abuser of conflicts of interest in the current economy, PIMCO (relax, relax, we jest), has just gotten its tentacles even more entangled with the rotor of the government's economic shredder. Reuters reports Bill Gross has been hired to advise the U.S.

IG: 229/230
HY11: 70.25/70.50 -1.30
LCDX10: 73.00/73.25 -0.80

Secured and unsecured loan indices trading at identical spreads... no, the market isn't broken at all.

We were getting a little behind the 1 bankruptcy a day run rate... Undiversified maker of flash memory (of which nowadays you get 16GB for free with every purchase of toilet paper) Spansion late last night deposited its first day motions in the after hours Chapter 11 drop slot in Delaware bankruptcy court. The company's decision "was made in consultation with an ad hoc consortium of holders of Spansion's $625 million Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2013."

Expectation was 33.8. Based on market response, looks like few care about leading indicators anymore.

If the most anticipated leading indicator ISM posts a number indicating the decline continues, as Jon Hatzius of Goldman expects, pull all stops.

BRK/B Indicated $2,200-$2,400 as market is about to open after closing at $2,564

Most bank names wider by 20-30 bps. Notable movers Bank of Communist America: +30 to 270; Citi: +35 to 430; Merrill: +30 to 375

Talk about the captain staying with the sinking ship.... or not...The man only became CEO a mere 6 months ago. Guess when comp is capped at or around $1 in perpetuity nobody, not even former Carlyle Group senior advisors, have much of an incentive to stay and watch the mushroom cloud.

Talk about the captain staying with the sinking ship.... or not...The man only became CEO a mere 6 months ago. Guess when comp is capped at or around $1 in perpetuity nobody, not even former Carlyle Group senior advisors, have much of an incentive to stay and watch the mushroom cloud.

Talk about the captain staying with the sinking ship.... or not...The man only became CEO a mere 6 months ago. Guess when comp is capped at or around $1 in perpetuity nobody, not even former Carlyle Group senior advisors, have much of an incentive to stay and watch the mushroom cloud.

Largest since 1995. Set to keep growing.