Archive - Apr 16, 2009

Buy commercial insurers companies now, as they are likely to be in big trouble soon (isn't that how the market works these days?). Moody's has come out with a report lowering its outlook on P&C commercial insurers:

prepared by Lehman bros.

In other CRE news, EuroHypo says GGP press release disclosing it is owed $2.6 billion by the bankrupt mall operator is "not correct". Gotta love when two multibillion enterprises (well, one is not so multibillion any more) publicly accuse each other of lies.

prepared by Lehman bros.

In other CRE news, EuroHypo says GGP press release disclosing it is owed $2.6 billion by the bankrupt mall operator is "not correct". Gotta love when two multibillion enterprises (well, one is not so multibillion any more) publicly accuse each other of lies.

1. Whenever the S&P 500 slices to a new low, it’s time to cover shorts. Every new low in the past 18 months was met by a vigorous bounce, especially the last two.

2. Be wary of upward spasms where financials and consumer discretionary lead the way, because they typically go into these bear market rallies with the largest short positions. Also, be skeptical when the rally is led by low-quality stocks.

Housing numbers were just released and the message seems to be that the market is finally starting to reflect reality (at least with regards to housing starts). As you can see below, the "Authorized but not started" numbers are finally coming down - this reflects the gap between the market's leading demand expectations vs. actual demand and it is a good sign that the number has been decreasing especially in the 5 units or more category. 

Housing numbers were just released and the message seems to be that the market is finally starting to reflect reality (at least with regards to housing starts). As you can see below, the "Authorized but not started" numbers are finally coming down - this reflects the gap between the market's leading demand expectations vs. actual demand and it is a good sign that the number has been decreasing especially in the 5 units or more category. 

A relevant long-term proxy for the increasing presence and relevance of quant trading in equity markets is the widening volatility (width) in the advances-to-declines band (observed via ADLN in Bloomberg, or TICK for intraday breadth movements).

A relevant long-term proxy for the increasing presence and relevance of quant trading in equity markets is the widening volatility (width) in the advances-to-declines band (observed via ADLN in Bloomberg, or TICK for intraday breadth movements).

• The same old same old: Dick Bove upgrades GS to Buy from Hold
• The vanishing employment map (Mish)
• Steve Schwarzman worried about future of capitalism (Fortune)
• Fixed income group (yes, CDS is fixed income) lifts JP Morgan net (Bloomberg)
• Nouriel Roubini The