Archive - Apr 1, 2009

Greiner, the CIO at UMB, thinks stocks are finally at the low end of the range on a 5-year range. He's also recommending his clients start getting back into equities. What is his rationale? "From a fundamental standpoint the table has been set for financial markets to stabilize and rebound." And why is that? Because in the face of almost of every single major bearish housing index, (a number released by the NAR, far from a non-partisan group) pending home sales is sitting at 2.1%.

Total Ford, Lincoln and Mercury sales totaled 125,107, down 41% from last year and higher 30% than February (GM's numbers should more than make up for this lack of slack).
Aslo it seems all those stupefying Volvo commercials aren't helping: only 6 thousand of Scandinavia's finest sold in March. The biggest hit by category was SUVs which was down 73.2% (-77.8 drop in Expedition and -69.8% drop in Explorer sales), as compared to cars (-36.6%), CUVs (-35.9%), and trucks and vans (-40.2%).

Bad for Matlin Patterson, but very much as expected. As per a press release from the company, it is formally pulling the plug and shutting down.

Seems people are fascinated with this presumed ISM "bottom". Some thoughts on that phenomenon per the Rosenbergs.

Manufacturing sector remains depressed

The equity-credit dislocation continues unabated. Optimism in equities after a 15 pt run up in S&P, while IG12 breaks 200 for the first time. Someone is wrong.

As CNBC makes fun of the G20 "fair with jesters and jugglers" in London, things are, in reality, getting serious. Just out of Foxnews:

Zero Hedge's feelings about commercial real estate are no secret. Yesterday's sale of the John Hancock Tower to Normandy was an interesting market test, with media reports claiming it implied either nothing much or only good things about CRE and CMBS recoveries. A contrarian (and realistic) analysis on the transaction out of Morgan Stanely implies that based on this deal, not all is good in CRE land. (hat tip to reader David).

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In a sad move for Wall Street news hounds, the creator of the most widely read "market intelligence" update has left the building. Sal Catrini, whose Early Look At The Market was required reading for bankers and hedge funders on their daily commutes, built a reputation for providing unbiased and comprehensive news summaries for many years while at Bear Stearns, and subsequently at white knight acquiror JP Morgan.

The Charlotte Business Journal reports that Sonic Automotive's days may be numbered.

Too bad Mr. Faber did not mention the source for the AIG information. But we love him anyway

In an 8-K filed earlier, MGM Mirage announced its CityCenter lenders have agreed to forbear on certain defaults until April 13. In the meantime the company has to find a comprehensive solution or else CityCenter may be forced to file for bankruptcy, with potentially adverse consequences for MGM Mirage itself.

• Seattle FHLB Had ‘Material Weaknesses’ in Internal Controls (Bloomberg)
• The real cost of the Geithner plan (RGE Monitor)
• The real Geithner plan: a Nuclear option (WSJ)
• Hades screws over the hound of hell: what happens to Cerberus now?
  

ADP Private Job Report worse than consensus (-663k) by almost 100k at -742k, a record absolute drop. Also, the February revision is, unsurprisingly, lower from -697k to -706k. Amusingly, instead of slowing down job cuts are picking up. Also, the ADP is usually seen as a more optimistic version of tomorrow's initial jobless claims report.

As Zero Hedge has noted before, we think the market was underestimating the severity of the crisis in Japan. As we looked at the numbers, we couldn't help but think that some were being a little optimistic in light of the macro factors at play. At month end, the market reacted sharply to almost consistently bad news coming out from Japan; unemployment, production, retail and the Tankan indices all came out below expectations.

As Zero Hedge has noted before, we think the market was underestimating the severity of the crisis in Japan. As we looked at the numbers, we couldn't help but think that some were being a little optimistic in light of the macro factors at play. At month end, the market reacted sharply to almost consistently bad news coming out from Japan; unemployment, production, retail and the Tankan indices all came out below expectations.