Archive - Apr 20, 2009

Tyler Durden's picture

Who Said Logic Pays?





The attached graphs demonstrate the massive rally in Sovereign CDS over the past few weeks, as well the collapse in the divergence in the VIX - Sovereign CDS pair.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Who Said Logic Pays?





The attached graphs demonstrate the massive rally in Sovereign CDS over the past few weeks, as well the collapse in the divergence in the VIX - Sovereign CDS pair.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

"The Risk Of Deleveraging Only Gets Larger"





And just to make sure everyone leaves today's market action even more utterly confused, here is the perspective of GS' Robert Savage.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Daily Credit Market Summary: April 20 - All Skewed Up





Spreads were broadly wider in the US today as all the indices deteriorated. Indices generally outperformed intrinsics with skews widening in general as IG's skew decompressed as the index beat intrinsics, HVOL outperformed but widened the skew, ExHVOL's skew widened as it underperformed, XO's skew increased as the index outperformed, and HY outperformed but narrowed the skew.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Short rates are not due to China, Fed QE





In a continued trend of low short rates, Bloomberg reports that not much has changed since late last year. This time around, they are ascribing it to central banks snapping up bills in anticipation of Fed QE, specifically China, rather than reduced risk sentiment on the part of investors.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Short rates are not due to China, Fed QE





In a continued trend of low short rates, Bloomberg reports that not much has changed since late last year. This time around, they are ascribing it to central banks snapping up bills in anticipation of Fed QE, specifically China, rather than reduced risk sentiment on the part of investors.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Short rates are not due to China, Fed QE





In a continued trend of low short rates, Bloomberg reports that not much has changed since late last year. This time around, they are ascribing it to central banks snapping up bills in anticipation of Fed QE, specifically China, rather than reduced risk sentiment on the part of investors.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Some More Technical Analysis





Some more interesting technical considerations, compliments of John Bougearel, Research Director at Structural Logic.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Circuit Breakers 101





Been a while since people cared about this info. Always good to keep in mind.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

200 DMA vs 52 Week Average





Below you can see the percentage of NYSE stocks trading above their 200 Day Moving Average. For comparison, the 52 week average is also included. It is interesting what happens when the two converge from the downside.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Using Goodwill Impairments To Determine Bank Health





Very interesting analysis from the folks at Disclosure Insight, which takes a different approach: instead of looking at the "hard assets" themselves (which have as much price transparency as a metric ton of pure grade heroin auction on the back door of the Capitol Building), DI looks instead at what non-cash intangible assets (i.e., goodwill) indicate as a proxy for the health of banks. Interesting data and conclusions.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Deteriorating Housing Backdrop, And Why The Wells Rally Won't Last





When thinking about banks, start with housing. The Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan may slow foreclosures, and homebuyer Federal tax credits are stabilizing sales. But what matters more are home prices and defaults on existing loans:

* We expect additional home price declines of 15% at a national level. It has taken 35-40% home price declines in California to get sales moving up.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Deteriorating Housing Backdrop, And Why The Wells Rally Won't Last





When thinking about banks, start with housing. The Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan may slow foreclosures, and homebuyer Federal tax credits are stabilizing sales. But what matters more are home prices and defaults on existing loans:

* We expect additional home price declines of 15% at a national level. It has taken 35-40% home price declines in California to get sales moving up.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Jonathan Finger Balks at BofA Results, Pushes For Lewis Ouster





Ken Lewis' days may be numbered. Despite today's voodoo earnings out of the bank, both investors and analysts have already seen through the non-recurring and one-time benefits, as well as the accounting sleight of hand used to justify the "outrageous" earnings. If Lewis was hoping the results would be greeted with the same Down chromosome smile that accompanied Wells Fargo early rushing of its detail-free earnings preannouncement, he was wrong. In fact, the proxy fight to bounce Lewis seems to have only gotten even more traction.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

JP Morgan Sees $400 Billion More In Bank Losses





A report by JP Morgan analyst Matthew Jozoff is putting the spotlight back on the banks, where lately everything has been seen as rosy to quite rosy. Jozoff disagrees and in fact sees another $400 billion in losses as a result of the continuing credit deterioration, and very likely major new capital infusions needed. Says Jozoff:

 
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