Archive - Apr 30, 2009

Looks like Bloomberg is treating the Swine Flu... pardon, the H1N1 issue a little more seriously than our green shooting friends at CNBC. For your convenience, presenting the H1N1TOTC (and H1N1TOTD) index - your friendly tracker of global infections as disclosed by the WHO.

Looks like Bloomberg is treating the Swine Flu... pardon, the H1N1 issue a little more seriously than our green shooting friends at CNBC. For your convenience, presenting the H1N1TOTC (and H1N1TOTD) index - your friendly tracker of global infections as disclosed by the WHO.

As the chart below shows, quant funds attempted to leverage five times in the month of April only to fail every single time. In the meantime the higher trading volume on both the leveraging and deleveraging phase was welcome to brokers like JPM and UBS (and maybe MS?).

As the chart below shows, quant funds attempted to leverage five times in the month of April only to fail every single time. In the meantime the higher trading volume on both the leveraging and deleveraging phase was welcome to brokers like JPM and UBS (and maybe MS?).

In a replay of yesterday, Morgan Stanley advertised 30 million SPY shares traded at 6:42 pm. Curiously UBS also posted a significant accumulation block, larger than yesterday's, and indicative of some serious Prime Broker activity.

In a replay of yesterday, Morgan Stanley advertised 30 million SPY shares traded at 6:42 pm. Curiously UBS also posted a significant accumulation block, larger than yesterday's, and indicative of some serious Prime Broker activity.

In what is becoming a daily anti-Wall Street litany from the administration, there was more blasting of banks, this time courtesy of Rhode Island Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse who called banks "greedy, stubborn and unreasonable." His Obamaesque remarks came on the heels of the defeat of the cramdown amendment in the senate after a 51-45 vote, which curiously had 12 Democrats voting against the proposal.

Spreads were tighter in the US today as all the indices improved (although the early capitulation rally gave way to OWICs and derisking as the afternoon wore on). Indices typically underperformed single-names with skews mostly narrower as IG underperformed but narrowed the skew, HVOL underperformed but narrowed the skew (but remains the richest index), ExHVOL outperformed pushing the skew wider (after getting to zero intraday), XO underperformed but compressed the skew, and HY's skew widened as it underperformed.

But better late than never, especially when you have the REIT dilution powerhouse behind you. CLI just announced it will issue a total of 7,475,000 shares with Merrill as lead underwriter. Use of proceeds: "To repay borrowings under its unsecured revolving credit facility" which has as syndication agent...pause... Bank Of America. Unfortunately the $180 million of max proceeds will not really help BofA with their total bank exposure...

Somehow the boat did not keel over today, despite concerted efforts. Licking our chops in anticipation of the imminent RIEF update.

Somehow the boat did not keel over today, despite concerted efforts. Licking our chops in anticipation of the imminent RIEF update.

Somehow the boat did not keel over today, despite concerted efforts. Licking our chops in anticipation of the imminent RIEF update.

An interesting correlation between 10 Yr US protection and the steepness of the 2s10s curve. The tight correlation completely broke in November and after reaching massive wides in March is now almost back to flat. Overshoot on either side likely? Alternatively Black Swan out of Moody's and a U.S. outlook negative? That U.S. CDS looking kinda cheap with $72 trillion (oops, Freudian slip - billion is the actual number, trillion is 10 year inflation adjusted) of debt coming up next week.

An interesting correlation between 10 Yr US protection and the steepness of the 2s10s curve. The tight correlation completely broke in November and after reaching massive wides in March is now almost back to flat. Overshoot on either side likely? Alternatively Black Swan out of Moody's and a U.S. outlook negative? That U.S. CDS looking kinda cheap with $72 trillion (oops, Freudian slip - billion is the actual number, trillion is 10 year inflation adjusted) of debt coming up next week.

An interesting correlation between 10 Yr US protection and the steepness of the 2s10s curve. The tight correlation completely broke in November and after reaching massive wides in March is now almost back to flat. Overshoot on either side likely? Alternatively Black Swan out of Moody's and a U.S. outlook negative? That U.S. CDS looking kinda cheap with $72 trillion (oops, Freudian slip - billion is the actual number, trillion is 10 year inflation adjusted) of debt coming up next week.