Archive - Apr 2009
April 16th
CRE Performance By Property Type
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2009 14:29 -0500
prepared by Lehman bros.
In other CRE news, EuroHypo says GGP press release disclosing it is owed $2.6 billion by the bankrupt mall operator is "not correct". Gotta love when two multibillion enterprises (well, one is not so multibillion any more) publicly accuse each other of lies.
CRE Performance By Property Type
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2009 14:29 -0500
prepared by Lehman bros.
In other CRE news, EuroHypo says GGP press release disclosing it is owed $2.6 billion by the bankrupt mall operator is "not correct". Gotta love when two multibillion enterprises (well, one is not so multibillion any more) publicly accuse each other of lies.
Even Wily Coyote Hits The Ground At Some Point
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2009 13:43 -05001. Whenever the S&P 500 slices to a new low, it’s time to cover shorts. Every new low in the past 18 months was met by a vigorous bounce, especially the last two.
2. Be wary of upward spasms where financials and consumer discretionary lead the way, because they typically go into these bear market rallies with the largest short positions. Also, be skeptical when the rally is led by low-quality stocks.
Housing numbers are starting to come in line
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2009 13:35 -0500Housing numbers were just released and the message seems to be that the market is finally starting to reflect reality (at least with regards to housing starts). As you can see below, the "Authorized but not started" numbers are finally coming down - this reflects the gap between the market's leading demand expectations vs. actual demand and it is a good sign that the number has been decreasing especially in the 5 units or more category.
Housing numbers are starting to come in line
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2009 13:35 -0500Housing numbers were just released and the message seems to be that the market is finally starting to reflect reality (at least with regards to housing starts). As you can see below, the "Authorized but not started" numbers are finally coming down - this reflects the gap between the market's leading demand expectations vs. actual demand and it is a good sign that the number has been decreasing especially in the 5 units or more category.
The Quants' Role In Perpetuating Market Distortions
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2009 12:10 -0500A relevant long-term proxy for the increasing presence and relevance of quant trading in equity markets is the widening volatility (width) in the advances-to-declines band (observed via ADLN in Bloomberg, or TICK for intraday breadth movements).
The Quants' Role In Perpetuating Market Distortions
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2009 12:10 -0500A relevant long-term proxy for the increasing presence and relevance of quant trading in equity markets is the widening volatility (width) in the advances-to-declines band (observed via ADLN in Bloomberg, or TICK for intraday breadth movements).
JP Morgan Earnings And Conf Call Q&A
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2009 11:04 -0500General Growth Properties Files For Bankruptcy
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2009 10:49 -0500The biggest real estate bankruptcy is now a fact. To all those who have been buying equities in REITs in the past two weeks, congratulations. Once the liquidations start, those dreaded "market tests" will become a reality and will reprice the entire CRE market. Additionally, leases that become renegotiated will demonstrate just what are sustainable and viable lease rates, and the GGP weakness will undoubtedly be used by all other tenants to become much more aggressive in their negotiations with landlords.
The Dow's Weight In Gold
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2009 03:39 -0500The chart below represents the relationship of the Dow Jones to an ounce of gold. Things to note...very long uptrend broken (white line), very long support/resistance line broken (light blue), well below average since 1979 lows (green line), we are at a 30% retracement from most recent low (cyan text) which compares well with all previous major retracements in this down-cycle... a fat juicy extrapolated target seems to be waiting for the DOW below 5000 and Gold over $1000?
The Dow's Weight In Gold
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2009 03:39 -0500The chart below represents the relationship of the Dow Jones to an ounce of gold. Things to note...very long uptrend broken (white line), very long support/resistance line broken (light blue), well below average since 1979 lows (green line), we are at a 30% retracement from most recent low (cyan text) which compares well with all previous major retracements in this down-cycle... a fat juicy extrapolated target seems to be waiting for the DOW below 5000 and Gold over $1000?
Scandal: Weil Gotshal Demands $55 Million For 4.5 Months Of Lehman Liquidation Work
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2009 02:57 -0500If this does not blow the lid on the thousands of teaparties held in the U.S., then likely nothing will.
Overallotment: April 15
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2009 02:40 -0500- Must read: NYSE chief cautions over low-volume March rally (FT, hat tip Jonah)
"“The real money investors are still waiting. I think they’re waiting, they’re watching. They want to make sure that what we saw in March is real. And I think once they are convinced you will know it. The market will have a totally different tone to it.”
The Impending Market Reversal
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2009 01:55 -0500A note released yesterday by Barclays Capital continues the topic of quant liquidity disruptions, the upcoming major trend reversal and provides some disturbing observations.
Audio Commentary From RanSquawk:
01-17 18:36: Avon Products to hold an investor day
01-15 18:51: Apple to shut down iAd App Nework as of June 30
01-15 18:18: Novartis receives two new FDA approvals for Cosentyx
01-17 18:24: 10 Stocks Moving On Friday's After-Hours Session
01-17 18:24: More Big Banks In The Earnings Spotlight
01-17 18:24: Earnings Expectations: Will GE And IBM Disappoint?
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