Archive - Apr 2009

And two months ago one would have been almost tempted to believe David Paterson that he "will never increase taxes." Too bad that like every other politician, a little time and a ridiculous budget deficit is all it took for the governor to flip on his promise.

Boston Properties chairman Mort Zuckerman has had enough, and according to Bloomberg has filed lawsuit against Ezra Merkin and Gabriel Captial for Madoff related losses. Mortimer, who owns 2.5 million shares in BXP, likely doesn't have much to worry about as long as BXP stock trades above $40/share keeping him planted nicely in the billionaire club. Whether this Forbes-eligible condition persists, only time will tell.

The Mortimer lawsuit is for a $40 million loss, has claims of fraud and negligent representation and seeks unspecified punitive damages. Mort claims:

Arthur Peponis, a senior GS banker who used to advise PE firms on LBO deals and helped originate over 150 deals while at Goldman, identifying $3 billion in investments, has left the firm to join Angelo Gordon. AG, best known for distressed debt investments, real estate and mortgage securities as well as the big bin of Dramamine in the middle of the trading floor (largest holders of SRS ETF as of December 31) is likely planning on expanding into private equity.

Just made headlines: Bank of England announces swap arrangement to provide liquidity to US Federal Reserve.

We agree - the US will need all the liquidity it can get.

Update: as is usually the case, Headline writers always invert the facts: turns out these are reciprocal swaps with 5 central banks that would provide foreign currencies to U.S. financial institutions for a total amount of roughly $180 billion. Hmm - is the world running out of non-dollars?

It made frontrunning, but I have been re-reading this post by Rortybomb like hypontized.

Explains the government's fascination with acronyms instead of the real names for the different plans: “Forney Perpetual Loop”, “Ricochet”, “Ping Pong”, “Black Widow”, “Red Congo”, “Get Shorty.”

Everyone should read this post.

Trailing multiple on reported S&P 500 earnings is now... 100x!

This is a record, and double where it was during the tech bubble.

More facts: consumer discrtionary P/E multiple have expanded to post-2002 highs after a 40% rally from March lows.

AAII survey shows share of bulls has surged from 18.9% to 42.7%, same as levels in January when last "bull market" rally ended.

If the market's estimate of $70 forward earnings is off a tad, watch out below.

Trailing multiple on reported S&P 500 earnings is now... 100x!

This is a record, and double where it was during the tech bubble.

More facts: consumer discrtionary P/E multiple have expanded to post-2002 highs after a 40% rally from March lows.

AAII survey shows share of bulls has surged from 18.9% to 42.7%, same as levels in January when last "bull market" rally ended.

If the market's estimate of $70 forward earnings is off a tad, watch out below.

Seven Deadly Sins of Banking: take home notes

Higher Structural Risk

Seven Deadly Sins of Banking: take home notes

Higher Structural Risk

Yet another improvement in average loan and bond spreads from a weeks ago, when loans were 839 bps and bonds averaged 1574 bps. The Alliance Imaging negative basis is over, with the -15 bps spread last week flipping to a positive 75 bps basis: a nice pickup of 90 bps in a week.

No other notable movers in the 30 name index. If things change markedly, we will notify you.

Yet another improvement in average loan and bond spreads from a weeks ago, when loans were 839 bps and bonds averaged 1574 bps. The Alliance Imaging negative basis is over, with the -15 bps spread last week flipping to a positive 75 bps basis: a nice pickup of 90 bps in a week.

No other notable movers in the 30 name index. If things change markedly, we will notify you.

• S&P 500 can't see enough money to feed stocks' rally: Must read (Bloomberg)
• Mike Mayo says bank loan losses will exceed great depression levels, slashes bank sector ratings (Bloomberg)
• Deflation in Europe accelerates (HT reader anonymous: Bloomberg)
• Evans-Pritchard: Swiss slide into deflation
  

Tyler and I are thinking of redoing the 4th floor at ZH headquarters and to figure out when to do it, we were looking at copper futures on COMX (which is what normal people do... right?)

Tyler and I are thinking of redoing the 4th floor at ZH headquarters and to figure out when to do it, we were looking at copper futures on COMX (which is what normal people do... right?)