Archive - Apr 2009

John Williams, who runs the great Shadow Government Statistics site, presents the true numbers behind today's "seriously flawed BLS payroll reporting." The upside bias coming out of the BLS is almost scandalous: one wonders how much "push from above" there is to concoct these numbers.

Steve Liesman corrects him that the sophisticated term is "monetizing the debt" and we have a race to the bottom as the ponzi goes global.

Both are correct.

Everyone in the world prints money and levers up using garbage as collateral, everyone has a massive fail. In the words of Dave Rosenberg "full stop."

Earlier Barney started war on Mark To Market. Now he is expanding to two fronts, crossing the Volga river deep into republican territory. Just want to pointed out that the whole two-front thing did not work out too well for Germany.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the increase in unemployment in the architecture and engineering occuptions has doubled from 2007 to 2008! This is roughly 4 times the average change in unemployment for all people aged 16 and over, which was 26.1% at the end of 2008. This statistic was relevant when total unemployment was 5.8%. With today's reading of 8.5% unemployment, all bets are off as to what on earth is going on in the U.S. labor market.

Nothing like a Friday update from Dave and his recap on why the Kool Aid is flowing freely. Some of the main points presented in the weekly recap. Please read this before you buy even one more stock.

We see a very uncertain future

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnX-D4kkPOQ&hl=en&fs=1]

hat tip reader anonymous

Despite the financial stocks jumping the shark yesterday, and investors gobbling it all up happily, Richard Ramsden of GS says this is just a load of hot air.

Despite the financial stocks jumping the shark yesterday, and investors gobbling it all up happily, Richard Ramsden of GS says this is just a load of hot air.

ISM Non-Manufacturing composite somehow not higher than expectations, at 40.8, down from 41.6 and versus a 42 consensus. Market reaction: could still have been lower, economy must be turning.

A letter sent out by the House Committee on Financial Services. Presented without comment.

Frank Statement on FASB Ruling on Mark-to-Market

Washington, DC – House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) today issued the following statement on the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s ruling on mark-to-market accounting:

If there is one group of companies that has to be ecstatic about the current sucker rally, it has got to be the REITs. First Simon Property Group sold a boatload of stock to naive investors, now Kimco Realty takes center stage with a $623 million follow on offering of 91.5 million shares at $7.1, a 5% discount from yesterday's closing price of $7.49.

• The revision game begins: January non-farm payrolls revised to 741k from 655k
• The CalPERS Apollo story is picking up steam: now on Bloomberg (Bloomberg)
• Must read: Fed struggling to win over investors wary of sharks in TALF aid program (Bloomberg)
• Fixing the
  

When the man in charge of the second largest borrower in the U.S. is willing to lose his job due to his discomfort with the FASB's shift in accounting rules, you can bet that the tragic fallout of all the "market buoying" recent events is only a matter of time.

When the man in charge of the second largest borrower in the U.S. is willing to lose his job due to his discomfort with the FASB's shift in accounting rules, you can bet that the tragic fallout of all the "market buoying" recent events is only a matter of time.

The ridiculous market moves in March have dealt Dan Loeb a tough hand, causing Third Point to lose 3.1%, bringing its YTD performance to -1.5%. The 8.8% run up in the S&P will spare few hedge funds and as the performance letters start rolling in, I expect to see much more pain for managers who did not flip shorts fast enough, or got caught in the Citi arb.