Archive - Apr 2009

Moody's is back to its wicked stop-the-stupid-rally ways by junking Macy's. Moody's cut the retailer's unsecured debt rating from Baa3 to Ba2.

Or so the Fast Money master claims.

Bloomberg just out, quoting a "person familiar" saying that the U.S. won't repay the $1 billion converts maturing June 1.

And the bottom is in.

Sigh

At this point nobody doubts what the final outcome for GM will be, the only question is how the company will get there, or specifically whether it will occur in court via a prepackaged bankruptcy, or out of court, through a debt-for-equity exchange, and as Obama's flip flopping on the matter over the past 3 days has demonstrated, there is a lot of political capital resting on either outcome. Another question is why did Obama limit the new extension to 60 days.

From David Rosenberg "Turning Bullish"

Some of the point he does not joke about

Savings rate could head back to the 10-12% range

Greiner, the CIO at UMB, thinks stocks are finally at the low end of the range on a 5-year range. He's also recommending his clients start getting back into equities. What is his rationale? "From a fundamental standpoint the table has been set for financial markets to stabilize and rebound." And why is that? Because in the face of almost of every single major bearish housing index, (a number released by the NAR, far from a non-partisan group) pending home sales is sitting at 2.1%.

Total Ford, Lincoln and Mercury sales totaled 125,107, down 41% from last year and higher 30% than February (GM's numbers should more than make up for this lack of slack).
Aslo it seems all those stupefying Volvo commercials aren't helping: only 6 thousand of Scandinavia's finest sold in March. The biggest hit by category was SUVs which was down 73.2% (-77.8 drop in Expedition and -69.8% drop in Explorer sales), as compared to cars (-36.6%), CUVs (-35.9%), and trucks and vans (-40.2%).

Bad for Matlin Patterson, but very much as expected. As per a press release from the company, it is formally pulling the plug and shutting down.

Seems people are fascinated with this presumed ISM "bottom". Some thoughts on that phenomenon per the Rosenbergs.

Manufacturing sector remains depressed

The equity-credit dislocation continues unabated. Optimism in equities after a 15 pt run up in S&P, while IG12 breaks 200 for the first time. Someone is wrong.

As CNBC makes fun of the G20 "fair with jesters and jugglers" in London, things are, in reality, getting serious. Just out of Foxnews:

Zero Hedge's feelings about commercial real estate are no secret. Yesterday's sale of the John Hancock Tower to Normandy was an interesting market test, with media reports claiming it implied either nothing much or only good things about CRE and CMBS recoveries. A contrarian (and realistic) analysis on the transaction out of Morgan Stanely implies that based on this deal, not all is good in CRE land. (hat tip to reader David).

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In a sad move for Wall Street news hounds, the creator of the most widely read "market intelligence" update has left the building. Sal Catrini, whose Early Look At The Market was required reading for bankers and hedge funders on their daily commutes, built a reputation for providing unbiased and comprehensive news summaries for many years while at Bear Stearns, and subsequently at white knight acquiror JP Morgan.

The Charlotte Business Journal reports that Sonic Automotive's days may be numbered.