Archive - May 8, 2009

Just like yet another posthumous multi-platinum Tupac record, David Rosenberg resurfaces on Zero Hedge... Although, unlike Tupac, this is almost guaranteed the last incarnation of Rosie while a Merrill employee, doing what he does best - talking about employment trends and the consumer.

This is a boom compared to the post-Lehman collapse

Spreads were mixed in the US with IG tighter, HVOL improving, ExHVOL weaker, XO wider, and HY rallying (although IG decompressed most of the day). Indices generally outperformed intrinsics with skews widening in general as IG's skew decompressed as the index beat intrinsics, HVOL outperformed but widened the skew (seems like single-name shorts being placed with HVOL hedge), ExHVOL's skew widened as it underperformed, XO's skew increased as the index outperformed, and HY outperformed but narrowed the skew.

Every now and then the general public gets a chance to see just how valid the green shoots theory really is. Next Friday may prove to be just such a case. On this date, 20 of some of the gnarliest and most troubled stressed and distressed high yield credits have a simultaneous IOU due to their respective lenders, either in the form of an interest payment or outright maturity. Zero Hedge has compiled the list of the 20 most interesting suspects to watch carefully.

At the end of the day fund flows talk and TV propaganda walks (and both have a 30 day grace period).

Every now and then the general public gets a chance to see just how valid the green shoots theory really is. Next Friday may prove to be just such a case. On this date, 20 of some of the gnarliest and most troubled stressed and distressed high yield credits have a simultaneous IOU due to their respective lenders, either in the form of an interest payment or outright maturity. Zero Hedge has compiled the list of the 20 most interesting suspects to watch carefully.

At the end of the day fund flows talk and TV propaganda walks (and both have a 30 day grace period).

Every now and then the general public gets a chance to see just how valid the green shoots theory really is. Next Friday may prove to be just such a case. On this date, 20 of some of the gnarliest and most troubled stressed and distressed high yield credits have a simultaneous IOU due to their respective lenders, either in the form of an interest payment or outright maturity. Zero Hedge has compiled the list of the 20 most interesting suspects to watch carefully.

At the end of the day fund flows talk and TV propaganda walks (and both have a 30 day grace period).

Dealbook has announced that the Chrysler dissident group will likely disband after Stairway Capital and Oppenheimer Funds folded under pressure.

A group of Chrysler creditors opposing the carmaker’s reorganization is likely to disband after two more investment firms withdrew from its membership, a person briefed on the matter told DealBook on Friday.

This is the chart they don't want you to see: the purchasing power of the dollar over the past 76 years has declined by 94%. And based on current monetary and fiscal policy, we have at least another 94% to go. The only question is whether this will be achieved in 76 months this time.

Hat tip Teddy

This is the chart they don't want you to see: the purchasing power of the dollar over the past 76 years has declined by 94%. And based on current monetary and fiscal policy, we have at least another 94% to go. The only question is whether this will be achieved in 76 months this time.

Hat tip Teddy

Textron private-jet competitor Hawker Beechcraft was the latest casualty of S&P's ongoing foray into subjective default proclamations, when the rating agency decided to monkeyhammer the company from a B- to a CC rating as a result of Hawker's recent tender offer for its own debt at distressed prices.

Stress Tests are over, loan loss provisions will be spread over years, accounting treatment has been relaxed, and nationalization will be left to the Swedes. While Bank of America and Wells Fargo capital needs are larger than expected, they fit within the Treasury's paradigm: earnings, asset sales, private sector capital raises and convertible TARP preferred stock will re-capitalize U.S.

Stress Tests are over, loan loss provisions will be spread over years, accounting treatment has been relaxed, and nationalization will be left to the Swedes. While Bank of America and Wells Fargo capital needs are larger than expected, they fit within the Treasury's paradigm: earnings, asset sales, private sector capital raises and convertible TARP preferred stock will re-capitalize U.S.

"We're leveling off! We're leveling off!"—so is the hope of TTT, Helicopter Ben, Larry the Wall Street Lackey and the rest of Team Obama. "This recession is leveling off!"

No it's not: The unemployment figures just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are totally cosmetic: We lost a whole lot more than 531,000 unemployed.

First, the "seasonal adjustment", which is a black box that can tweek me into looking like Dumbo the flying elephant. They're knocking off ±65,000 workers for no clearly discernible reason.

• Morgan Stanley raises $7.5 billion through stock and bond sale (Bloomberg)
• Fannie Mae requests $19 billion from treasury after $23 biollion loss (Yahoo)
• Fannie loss swells as government support doulbes to $200 billion (WSJ)
• Cooking the +226K death rate adjusted non-farm number after major prior
  

Ken Lewis is on CNBC touting the "BoA story", sees the market bottoming out and is generally sunny across most business lines. When asked about the Merrill business lines, apparently "trading is fine" and "investment banking is doing ok... some equity underwritings!"

According to the most recent data out of the NYSE, Goldman's principal program trading dropped an astonishing 25%, hitting a many week low absolute number. Not only that, but the portion of Goldman's principal PT trades as a percentage of total, and as a multiple of agency and customer facilitation also dropped substantially. Now, if Goldman is indeed, in the words of Ed Canaday, merely providing market liquidity under the guise of the SLP program, did the NYSE all of a sudden just feel the need for much less liquidity last week?