Archive - May 2009

Treasuries tumble (but wait, there was nothing to fear in the rating agency posturing we thought... or maybe there was)

Gold takes off (this is not the hedge fund driven wholesale plundering you are looking for)

As of 1 am last night, the petition in support of the Ron Paul /Alan Grayson / HR1207 initiative had over 2,500 signatories and climbing fast.

The link to endorse the petition is here.

• Jobless claims fell 12,000 last week, more than expected.
• Aeropostale's Q1 net rises 81% to $31.7M led by a 21.3% rise in revs at $408M.
• Autodesk swung to a Q1 loss of $32.1M as revs fell 29% to $425.8M.
• Barnes & Noble posts Q1 loss but boosts Y09 EPS from $1.10 to $1.40.
• Brocade Comm swung to a Q2 loss of $63.1M on write-downs, acquisition and stock-compensation related costs.
• Campbell Soup raised Y09 f'cast, reported Q3 profit that exceeded cons.
  

• CRE green shoot data point of the day: Recession turning malls into ghost towns (WSJ)
• Geithner calls for "very, very substantial" change to Wall Street pay (Bloomberg)
• Europe's worsening crisis (WaPo)
• Roger Altman leaves Evercore, BlackRock's Scholsstein takes over (

In what is sure to prove a disappointment to EMT and SLP purists, Goldman this week managed to trade a mere 859 million principal PT shares, or just under 6x its combined facilitiation and agency volume. What is this - amateur hour at the New York Plaza? What is more peculiar is the dramatic drop in overall NYSE Program trading: from 3,741 million shares in the prior week to 3,265 million in the most recent week.

In what is sure to prove a disappointment to EMT and SLP purists, Goldman this week managed to trade a mere 859 million principal PT shares, or just under 6x its combined facilitiation and agency volume. What is this - amateur hour at the New York Plaza? What is more peculiar is the dramatic drop in overall NYSE Program trading: from 3,741 million shares in the prior week to 3,265 million in the most recent week.

In what is sure to prove a disappointment to EMT and SLP purists, Goldman this week managed to trade a mere 859 million principal PT shares, or just under 6x its combined facilitiation and agency volume. What is this - amateur hour at the New York Plaza? What is more peculiar is the dramatic drop in overall NYSE Program trading: from 3,741 million shares in the prior week to 3,265 million in the most recent week.

• US will steer GM into bankruptcy next week (WaPo)
• BankUnited fails in year's biggest bust (WSJ)
• Treasuries rise as Fed's Rosengren says recovery will be slow (Bloomberg)
• Tech rally in full force: Lenovo shares dive after second straight qtrly loss (

"And with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back."

- Hunter S. Thompson

The Kondratieff Wave chart below, prepared by the Long Wave Group, gives some food for thought.

"And with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back."

- Hunter S. Thompson

The Kondratieff Wave chart below, prepared by the Long Wave Group, gives some food for thought.

"And with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back."

- Hunter S. Thompson

The Kondratieff Wave chart below, prepared by the Long Wave Group, gives some food for thought.

Spreads were broadly wider in the US as all the indices deteriorated (despite modest tightening all day from gap wider opening levels). Indices generally outperformed intrinsics with skews mostly narrower as IG underperformed but narrowed the skew, HVOL underperformed but narrowed the skew, ExHVOL outperformed pushing the skew wider, XO's skew increased as the index outperformed, and HY outperformed but narrowed the skew.

In an early precedent of Bank Failure Friday (and a LOT of work for the CNBC green shoot spin doctors for early Friday am consumption) BankUnited just expired, in the largest blow up of a bank to date in 2009. The bank will be "sold" to Carlyle, Blackstone and WL Ross. But why should Carlyle et al "pay up" for the asset when they can get Sheila Bair to use taxpayer money to backstop the entire sale for them. And when we are talking $12.8 billion in assets, it surely is much better to get Joe Q. Sixpack to make sure you (Wilbur Ross et al) don't have any risk exposure.

Some volumetric observations: the chart below demonstrates a "cumulative volume divergence from average" histogram. Recently, on up days, the volume has been significantly below average, and yet accelerates above average on down days. Another observation: on down days, the VWAP for the SPY is the magical barrier that simply refuses to be breached. Today for example, the ramp into the close occurred despite that the volume pushing the SPY higher was again below average toward the end of the day.

Some volumetric observations: the chart below demonstrates a "cumulative volume divergence from average" histogram. Recently, on up days, the volume has been significantly below average, and yet accelerates above average on down days. Another observation: on down days, the VWAP for the SPY is the magical barrier that simply refuses to be breached. Today for example, the ramp into the close occurred despite that the volume pushing the SPY higher was again below average toward the end of the day.