Archive - May 2009

"Buy CDS" - that was the overarching theme from last week as $141 billion of rerisking occurred across all major sectors. Absent some nominal CDS derisking in Oil & Gas and Tech/Telecom, every single space saw credit traders betting that risk will increase. Of course, absent some swooning on Monday of this week, irrational exuberance 2.0 still dominates the equity markets, once again implying that credit is either generally more pessimistic than equities, or that CDS traders are much faster to bail at the first whiff of the squeeze ending.

As Zero Hedge's all time favorite investment bank Merrill Lynch is all too happy to attest, the REITs have proven to be a phenomenal source of underwriting revenue.

As Zero Hedge's all time favorite investment bank Merrill Lynch is all too happy to attest, the REITs have proven to be a phenomenal source of underwriting revenue.

For all who claim that rampant inflation is up next, and home price deflation is over, I present the following charts for readers to ruminate on just how much higher existing home sales inventories are relative to some semblance of a trendline, in addition to a long-term chart comparing CPI with the median home price.

For all who claim that rampant inflation is up next, and home price deflation is over, I present the following charts for readers to ruminate on just how much higher existing home sales inventories are relative to some semblance of a trendline, in addition to a long-term chart comparing CPI with the median home price.

The U.S. reported the first April budget deficit in over 25 years, specifically $21 billion on a significant drop in individual and corporate tax receipts. April, which is traditionally the strongest budget revenue month due to the peak in individual tax revenue collection was unable to buck the trend in second derivatives and green shoots and is likely an indication of just how much worse the economy will get with traditional Treasury revenue sources rapidly disappearing. The Congressional Budget Office, which forecasts a $1.75 trillion budget shortfall for the Sept.

The U.S. reported the first April budget deficit in over 25 years, specifically $21 billion on a significant drop in individual and corporate tax receipts. April, which is traditionally the strongest budget revenue month due to the peak in individual tax revenue collection was unable to buck the trend in second derivatives and green shoots and is likely an indication of just how much worse the economy will get with traditional Treasury revenue sources rapidly disappearing. The Congressional Budget Office, which forecasts a $1.75 trillion budget shortfall for the Sept.

Now that Merrill Lynch has upgraded every single REIT and has a price target of +/- infinity, (conveniently pocketing over $100 million in the process), the company can focus on more pressing issues at hand (and no, not redecorating Thain's legacy office in the neo-uber-criminal style). Instead, the bank has sent not one, not two, but a whopping six cease and desist orders to Zero Hedge.

Submitted By Distressed Lookout

When even Moody's chimes in and notes that the Fed's "Adverse Case" assumptions are in line with their "Base Case" assumptions, one can't help but wonder in what parallel universe the Federal Reserve is expecting to see its optimistic outcome realized, especially since many of its macro worst case parameters have already been trampled by real economic data.

When even Moody's chimes in and notes that the Fed's "Adverse Case" assumptions are in line with their "Base Case" assumptions, one can't help but wonder in what parallel universe the Federal Reserve is expecting to see its optimistic outcome realized, especially since many of its macro worst case parameters have already been trampled by real economic data.

When even Moody's chimes in and notes that the Fed's "Adverse Case" assumptions are in line with their "Base Case" assumptions, one can't help but wonder in what parallel universe the Federal Reserve is expecting to see its optimistic outcome realized, especially since many of its macro worst case parameters have already been trampled by real economic data.

Loans have officially entered the twilight zone.

source: LoanConnector.com

To: Sheila Bair, FDIC

Earlier this evening Advanta, which through its FDIC-insured bank Advanta Banc Corp makes credit card loans, declared its intentions to allow its securitization trust to go into early amortization, while concurrently launching a coercive tender offer for the securities issued by the trust. This marks the first intentional amortization event, which if unpunished, could jeopardize the stability of securitization markets, the government’s special programs to aid the market such as TALF, the bank’s depositors, and the legal rights of Advanta’s ABS investors.

• Was it a sucker's rally? (WSJ)
• Stress testing Obama's facts (WSJ)
• U.K.