Archive - Jun 17, 2009

A moral test of statistical significance. When the stakes are higher than Chrysler dealers, do we have cause to ignore arbitrary definitions of statistical significance?

From: Note on the presidential election in Iran, June 2009 Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

A coup in Iran would take a lot more than the departure of President Re-Probably-Not-Elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from the country. And, lest we let optimism get away with us, it is not entirely clear who exactly would end up in control of a newly emergent Iranian government. Or, in the words of a colleague:

The more important principle these days, especially in those ersatz democracies is that it is not the first election that counts but the second...

An election means nothing until, upon the next cycle, the elected permit themselves to be removed from power.