Archive - Jun 5, 2009

Tyler Durden's picture

The (Futile) Task Of Projecting Unemployment





Some realistic downside projections: U3: 17-21%; U6: 30-37%.

Best case scenario: U3: 14-17%; U6: 26-31%

And here is what Bernanke, and everyone else who wonders where we are headed, should be looking at:

 

Tyler Durden's picture

TGI Failure Friday: #37





Bank failure # 37 for the year was Bank of Lincolnwood, Lincolnwood, Illinois. Republic Bank of Chicago, Oak Brook, Illinois will assume all the deposits.

As of May 26, 2009, Bank of Lincolnwood had total assets of approximately $214 million and total deposits of $202 million. Republic Bank of Chicago agreed to purchase approximately $162 million in assets. The FDIC will retain the remaining assets for later disposition.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

FDIC Sold $295 Million Commercial Loans In April At 60 Cents On The Dollar





Looks like even the FDIC is flexing its perfectly inelastic supply curve in Commercial Real Estate Loans. After selling a whopping 1,328 performing and non-performing loans in March for $218 million (a 54% discount), the FDIC sold just 315 loans in April for $177 million, a 40% discount. Presumably the investors who have purchased these loans are ineligible for PPIP or else they would know they could have purchased everything at par and paid less than half in equity, resulting in much better IRRs (to themselves, not taxpayers).

 

Tyler Durden's picture

FDIC Sold $295 Million Commercial Loans In April At 60 Cents On The Dollar





Looks like even the FDIC is flexing its perfectly inelastic supply curve in Commercial Real Estate Loans. After selling a whopping 1,328 performing and non-performing loans in March for $218 million (a 54% discount), the FDIC sold just 315 loans in April for $177 million, a 40% discount. Presumably the investors who have purchased these loans are ineligible for PPIP or else they would know they could have purchased everything at par and paid less than half in equity, resulting in much better IRRs (to themselves, not taxpayers).

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Indiana Pension Funds Lose Appeal





Developing story: Indiana Pension Funds lose second circuit appeal challenge (from Bberg).

Supreme Court appeal pending: SCOTUS has until Monday to decide if it wants to deal with this ungodly mess.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Payroll Data In Perspective





Compliments of a much happier and much less Merrill "Is that the most bullish piece you can come up with" Lynch-supervised David Rosenberg.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Consumer Credit Plunges v2





And I thought last month was bad. Total consumer credit in April dropped by almost $15 billion to just above $2.5 trillion, on expectations of -$6 billion, a 7.4% annual rate reduction. As for the March revision, it just does not compute how manipulated higher that number initially was.

Someone tell that house of dimon SPY permabid that consumer credit down -> savings up -> economy bad.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Proudly Gunning Every Market Upswing Since TARP





Update: Just as the SPY is about to drop, guess who start gobbling up 5-10k blocks of SPY. $10 in TARP money to the first who guesses.

JPM making sure that no Dow dip goes unpunished.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Proudly Gunning Every Market Upswing Since TARP





Update: Just as the SPY is about to drop, guess who start gobbling up 5-10k blocks of SPY. $10 in TARP money to the first who guesses.

JPM making sure that no Dow dip goes unpunished.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Liesman Tries To Be Convincing, Another Epic Fail Ensues





Also, when it seems like Steve is about to crack in "explaining how we live and how the system is set up", Melissa storms to the front, providing that critical second wind of intellectual superstardom. Michael Pento must still be shell-shocked from that episode.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

So How About That Fed Funds Rate Increase?





Since Ben and his CNBC cronies have been ahhing and ooohing about hyperinflation, and the hyperdeflation of debt, both expected to start any minute now, we thought it's time to check out expectations for the fed fund target rate. Turns out the market is really buying into this inflation story.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

So How About That Fed Funds Rate Increase?





Since Ben and his CNBC cronies have been ahhing and ooohing about hyperinflation, and the hyperdeflation of debt, both expected to start any minute now, we thought it's time to check out expectations for the fed fund target rate. Turns out the market is really buying into this inflation story.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

UK Government Crisis Reaches Critical Point





Developing story: As Gordon Brown is currently speaking, more and more labour party members are dropping like flies. Just resigned, British Ministed of State for Europe, Caroline Flint.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Mortgage Refi Trade Is Over





If, like Bob Pisani, you refied a week ago at 4.7%, congrats. If not, tough luck. Vigilantes check to you Mr. Bernanke.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Mortgage Refi Trade Is Over





If, like Bob Pisani, you refied a week ago at 4.7%, congrats. If not, tough luck. Vigilantes check to you Mr. Bernanke.

 
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