Archive - Jun 2009

WSJ reporting that William von Mueffling's (who in 2007 allegedly made about $300 million) Cantillon Capital Management is shutting down.

As if anyone needed more confirmation just how bad commercial real estate is. Also includes a brief survey on the collapse of the SoCal regional market.

hat tip Alex

Watch as programs protect the 200 DMA in the SPY.

Intraday below: bounce right off the 200 DMA (white line)

S&P continues to restore some semblance of credibility (at the zero sum expense of its Warren Buffett controlled peer), after it downgraded 22 banks earlier today, some of which rather viciously, and all for good cause. This is how the McGraw Hill company justified its action today:

The actions reflect our belief that operating conditions for the industry will become less favorable than they were in the past, characterized by greater volatility in financial markets during credit cycles, and tighter regulatory supervision.

In addition to presenting the case for/against interest rate changes, the report below is a great compendium of all recent trends in monetary markets, compliments of the St. Louis Fed. A casual skimming the charts in this report should render moot any speculation about the validity of green shoot propaganda: there is no real economic improvement anywhere in sight.

In addition to presenting the case for/against interest rate changes, the report below is a great compendium of all recent trends in monetary markets, compliments of the St. Louis Fed. A casual skimming the charts in this report should render moot any speculation about the validity of green shoot propaganda: there is no real economic improvement anywhere in sight.

After three very volatile weeks, it seems the CDS world tapered off modestly. While action was rather subdued, the bulk of activity was focused on insurance buying, with over $63 billion in net notional being purchased in over 3,400 contracts. Total cumulative CDS action since the beginning of April grew to over $400 billion, and virtually all sectors are now net derisked over the past 2 months, with the consumer leading the risk parade.

It is good that Goldman at least acknowledges the issue of perceived "dark pool"/Sigma X impropriety. I hope Mr. Ed Canaday can now respond in a comparable fashion to the Zero Hedge queries about Program Trading/SLP issues presented here over the past 2 months: after all such disclosures would go a long way toward increasing "transparency, confidence in our industry, and the understanding of our complex market structure."

• Asian Development Bank to double clean energy investment in Asia to $2 billion yearly.
• Asian markets mostly lower as global rally continues to lose steam; European shares weaken.
• ECB: Write-Downs by banks will increase.
• Euro rises against US dollar to 1.3880 in wake of Russian comments on diversifying.
• Home construction climbed 17.2% in May; single-family starts rose for the 3rd month.
• New Zealand central bank says economy to grow again but recovery will be slow, erratic.
• Obama vows tougher Wall Street regulation, says Unemployment toreac
  

• William Pesek: Suitcase with $134 billion puts dollar on edge (Bloomberg, hat tip Mike)
• No inflation: CPI rises less than forecast in May (Bloomberg)
• Mortgage applications fell 16% last week (Bloomberg)
  

A moral test of statistical significance. When the stakes are higher than Chrysler dealers, do we have cause to ignore arbitrary definitions of statistical significance?

From: Note on the presidential election in Iran, June 2009 Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

A coup in Iran would take a lot more than the departure of President Re-Probably-Not-Elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from the country. And, lest we let optimism get away with us, it is not entirely clear who exactly would end up in control of a newly emergent Iranian government. Or, in the words of a colleague:

The more important principle these days, especially in those ersatz democracies is that it is not the first election that counts but the second...

An election means nothing until, upon the next cycle, the elected permit themselves to be removed from power.

A blast from the manipulated past (via Bloomberg). When will domestic regulators demonstrate they are at least on par with their Japanese colleagues.

Nikko Salomon Banned From Japan Trading for 20 Days

Straight from the CIO of TCW

Gundlach June 15 -

hat tip Stephen

Straight from the horse's mouth, viewers can gleen the most "unbiased" perspective on the strength of the REIT market, who the investors are who are so happy to throw their money on the REIT equity offering bandwagon, and just how many more waves (after waves) of follow ons can be expected.

Compliments of Ron Sturzenegger, MD and Global Head of Real Estate, Gaming and Lodging and Jeff Horowitz, Managing Director & Head of Americas Real Estate And Loding, both at Merrill/BofA.