Archive - Jul 20, 2009

Charlie Gasparino's recap of his behind the scenes meeting with Van Praag - apparently Goldman's most recent noble cause: "Providing liquidity" and their "proclivity for electronic trading."Odd... So odd.

The broader market now tracks every (inverted) move in the DXY. Bernanke has achieved his quest - the rest of the world (and America itself) perceiving the US and its market as a commodity. Is anyone stupid enough to be hiring fundamental analysts these days?

Recently, the Congressional Oversight Panel announced that based on the currently accepted process the Treasury has adopted for banks to repurchase TARP warrants, the ultimate "recovery" to taxpayers would be 66 cents on the dollar. In other words, using the top secret, private method that the Treasury has signed off on, taxpayers are impaired once more even though the banks that repurchase their TARP warrants are presumably so healthy, that their EPS ebulience is supposed to drive the market higher and higher each day. How much longer will Joe Q Public have to suffer while Wall Street once again goes back to its habits of hitting the LIE for the 7 pm Southampton dinner date 4 out of 7 days a week. Apparently as long as the 401(k) is still up for the day compliments of "justificatory" drivel pouring from GE subsidiaries, the public is more than happy to be abused day in and day out. So what happens when reality finally sets in?

A comical piece was aired on CNBC this morning, which was similar in composition to horse manure. Take a look at this video right here. Does this guy have any idea what he is talking about?

It almost takes you back.

Andrew Horowitz of the Disciplined Investor conducts a very informative interview with the (in)famous Matt Taibbi, touching on such broad topics as the economy, CIT's bankruptcy, earnings, program trading and of course Goldman Sachs. A much better way to spend 45 minutes instead of watching the high-pitched talkings heads in the octobox.

Interview link (and also check out Andrew's website: he has many other great interviews with the likes of Mish Shedlock, Kevin Depew, Dennis Gartman, Brett Steenbarger and many others).

The only benefit from Sergey's recent brush with Goldman Sachs, a/k/a the FBI, seems to have been an increased curiosity if not awareness in this most nebulous topic by pretty much everyone with an even remote interest in Wall Street... a 500% increase over one month in fact.

It seems Hypo is back asking for more money according to the chairman of the oversight board, Michael Endres, in his interview with Welt am Sonntag. Ed Harrison at Credit Writedowns wrote a smashing post on this venerial disease known as Hypo Real Estate (HRE). It extends on latest analysis done by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, which is highlighting tell-tale signs of serious problems in the Spanish real estate market.

The divergence in loan and bonds trends has picked up marginally, with the bond universe wider by 8 bps to 968 bps and loans tighter by 22 to 471 bps. Mostly noise in the subset of 30 companies, except for the traditional yoyo TRW whose bonds and loans both screamed tighter by 410 bps and 130 bps, respectively. Is there any fundamental reason for this? Of course not.

Abby Joseph Cohen must have threatened with retirement and David Kostin is here to pick up the Olympic torch. Goldman Sachs just raised its 2009 year end S&P target to 1060, "13% above the current level" meaning Goldman prop positions are full and the great offloading to marginal buyers has begun. The justification: "After trading in a 10% band for the past three months, our “Pop, Stall, & Sustained recovery” framework, sequential improvement in ex-Financials EPS, stabilization in profit margins, and higher forward EPS guidance all point to a rising market through 2009." More specifically, 85 Broad is raising its 2009 EPS to $52 from $40, and 2010 EPS to a patently absurd $75 from $63, a 45% increase in bottom line earnings, and almost 100% from the old $40 estimate. And just so it seems more credible, "measured on a pre-provision and pre-write-down basis our estimates are $69 and $81. S&P 500 trades at 12.5x our 2010 operating and 11.6x our pre-provision EPS." In other words, pure rose-colored glasses halcyon.