Archive - Aug 20, 2009

Tyler Durden's picture

Global Trade Collapsing, China Now Japan's Top Trade Partner





The Japan External Trade Organization has released its latest trade figures, which paint a grim picture for foreign trade by the world's second largest economy. Year to date imports have dropped by 31.9% to $252.9 billion, while exports have plunged 36.8% to $252.2 billion. Most stunning is the disclosure on trade flows with the United States: exports to the US have dropped by 43.5% to $40.5 billion, resulting in Japan's largest positive trade balance. Another development is that China has now replaced USA as Japan's primary trade destination. However that is not saying much: trade with China has declined for the 8th consecutive month. The last fact is among the primary reasons why the Chinese Central Bank has blown a credit bubble of epic proportions in order to mitigate the unprecedented collapse in Chinese trade with its traditional trade partners.

 

Bruce Krasting's picture

Rumors of Deals - Freddie POOPS





Wall Street and FRE come up with another bright idea. A nothing for nothing swap. The folks at FHFA should be congratulated.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

US Railroad Carload Traffic Down 19%





The Association of American Railroads released its latest traffic data, and both the weekly and cumulative traffic originations are down significantly, however this is likely another data point that would be cheered by the wildly optimistic Philadelphia Fed as yet another piece of information that can only go up from here. Total carloads originated was down -17.1% for the week ending August 15, while the cumulative decline was -18.9%. Also the number of ton-miles has declined by 18% from 1,094 billion to 898 billion. This is probably as good a proxy for the real collapse of the US manufacturing complex and implicitly why any inventory bounce, outside of direct government subsidies, will be very slow in coming (and likely delayed due to increasingly artifical capacity added by the central planners).

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Here Come The Credit Peak LBO IPOs: KKR's Dollar General Files S-1





Discount retailer Dollar General, which KKR acquired in March 2007 for $7 billion is about to be sold to a new batch of investors who believe in top ticking the market.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

After Hours Is The New 3:30 PM Volume Spike





No volume all day? No problem - luckily there is after hours to trade. The entire cumulative volume below average caught up to the normal in less than 30 minutes of AH trading. And guess what - all the volume to the downside. But no big surprise there.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Some Additional OpEx Observations





A listing of the most active SPY options by open interest indicates 3 Calls... and 29 Puts.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

SPY Option Skew Steepening Significantly Ahead Of OpEx





With At The Money vol dropping markedly over the past 4 days, and the VIX plunging, the green light to buy stocks ahead of OpEx was given by those who traded 25% of the market volume in just 5 financial stocks purely as a result of yet another massive squeeze, dragging the balance of the market. Yet observing the wings indicates a significant steepening of the skew, especially in the last day. On the other hand, it could be simply churn moving away from stocks and into options. However, with today's bleak jobs data, offset by optimism out of Philadelphia, at this point there is no question that fundamentals have no bearing whatsoever in this market and momentum drives all. Every trade is merely a coin toss.

 

RobotTrader's picture

Rushing Back to the Gambling Tables





Once again, the lure of easy money lured the Riverboaters back into the casino for more action. Old timers like Art Cashin, who has been warning of a correction, are woefully inept at gauging the gambling fever which now grips so many fast buck hustlers these days.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The New Flight To Safety Normal?





Treasuries and equities now being bought together, the only driving factor is the continued crashing of the dollar. Apparently every asset class is now a safe haven from the continued pillaging of the US currency.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

When In Doubt, Pummel The Dollar





With option expiration tomorrow, the market could be set for some peculiar action over the next 48 hours. But first, your scheduled afternoon market ramp.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Dennis Gartman Seeking To Raise $200 Million For Hedge Fund





Commodity bull Dennis Gartman has decided it is time to collect a little 2 and 20 luvin' presumably a more lucrative venture than reaping the benefits of newsletter subscriptions. Hopefully the fund, if it ever launches will be a little more diversified than just a couple of thousand BOEs. To observe the effects of a lack of diversification, one only needs to observe the performance of Ackman's Target fund.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Russell's Ever Increasing Beta





The attached chart demonstrates just how much of a ramp the Russell 2000 has experienced in terms of its market beta since the March lows. A pretty convincing demonstration of just how many junk stocks have been purchased, most of them on forced short squeezes, which have in turn pushed the marginal buyer to be much lessdiscriminate in lifting any and all offers, thus driving the overall market.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Porsche Headquarters Raided For Stock Manipulation Investigation





The world's formerly largest hedge fund, which had a luxury car maker subsidiary is about to meet its regulator maker, the BaFIN . Only took them about a year. Which is still one tenth the lag demonstrated by their US counterparts.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Notable Discrepancy In Goldman Equity And Credit Trends





While over the past several weeks Goldman's stock price has been steady as a rock (except to precipitate an occasional headfake in a volumeless and directionless market), its CDS has spiked wider by about 50% since its lows (from low 90s to mid 140s). Either some arb desk is currently collecting all its possessions in banker boxes as it is escorted out of the building, or look for a convergence of these two trades soon.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

$109 Billion In Treasury Bonds, $88 Billion In Bills On Deck





Tim Geithner just can't get enough of testing the indirect bidders' desire (the directs', not so much) for soaking up rapidly deflating US Sovereign debt: next up on deck $109 Billion in Treasury Bonds, as well as 88 Billion in Treasury Bills.

 
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