Archive - Aug 4, 2009

One wonders what Linear Algebra and its Applications would have to say about this.

In another case of the Feds proping up zombie banks, sources have reported that an SEC memo has stated that the FDIC will seize Guaranty Bank and it will not be sold as previously rumored.

Ignore the retracement, it is just the 19 year old momo quants "with no financial or business background" who are about to get a rude awakening in what happens when non-linear equations diverge from the stock market.

Next up: SIGMA X and Dark Pools

Poll of the day: Where does Medallion close 2009?

"Most of the forecasters out there can only see what's happening right now. That's why they are always so wrong. They could never connect the dots... Our phony economy is being propped up by the stimulus and artificially low interest rates, and all of that has to come to an end if we want to stop the dollar from collapsing."

Truer words have rarely been spoken.

We are certain that the unprecedented government policy response to avert a depression-era collapse of our financial system will go hand in hand with an unprecedented number of unintended consequences, perhaps manifested by loss of confidence in the dollar, inflation and possibly both.

"In response to recent media stories on High Frequency Trading, we wanted to clarify our position to clients."

The personal saving rate declined by over 1.6% in just a month. This is relevant as the consumer isn't levering up: savings exhaustion is likely coming at the expense of paper profits in Schwab and 401(k) accounts. Unless the Ponzi can be maintained in perpetuity, when the house of cards falls, the doulbe whammy from savings increase will have a dramatic adverse impact on the economy. Bottom line: another one-time plug to Q2 GDP.

For readers curious to Sheila Bair's perspectives that caused Geithner's Tourette's outbursts last Friday, the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs is holding a hearing live now in which the FDIC chairman presents her views.

Insightful commentary from Warren Pollock on how China is quietly getting the hell out of dodge.

The ripfest is unending. Only 6 HY indicative bonds are trading wider of a 1,000, and 6 loans are risky enough to merit 600 bps or more. A combined 4 bonds and loans were wider for the week out of 60. And in the absence of perma yoyo TRW going either 500bps wider or tighter, it was Neiman Marcus' turn to shine in the "ridiculous gyrations" corner.

• Personal spending rose 0.4% in June. Incomes fell 1.3%, biggest drop in four years. Max out those credit cards while you can. (Bloomberg)
• China has become a giant ponzi scheme - Chinese stocks are 50-100% overvalued (Andy Xie, via Ritholtz)
• Must read: from plasma physicist to Citadel's nemesis - profile of Misha Malyshev (Crains)
• Bernanke's exit dilemma (WSJ)
• Federal tax revenues plummeting (AP)

• Asian share markets were higher Tuesday with commodity-related stocks up.
• Construction spending unexpectedly rises on revival in home sales.
• Germany to champion Magna's Opel bid in Berlin talks.
• Dubai real estate prices down 50%from peak: Property Index.
• Anadarko Petroleum swung to a Q2 loss of $216M on lower prices, output up 12%.