Archive - Sep 2009

Total Federal Reserve balance sheet assets for the week of September 2 of $2,070 billion

As markets digest the worse, yet somehow better, than expected 9.7% unemployment, the real state of the labor market is much worse, as indicated by the U-6 number, which has hit a recent record of 16.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis. As a reminder, the "U-6 represents total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers." In other words, in reality the U.S. labor market is likely about as bad as Spain in terms of undoctored jobless data.

"This is why the Keynesian central bankers can’t sleep at night: Their eternal demand-stimulation does not work any longer. The pent-up demand is non-existent (by historical standards) and therefore cannot be released, even if rates are aggressively cut. Total bank lending has dropped almost 6% from the top in late October 2008. That has never happened before. The picture is the same in the Eurozone and (of course) in Japan."

• Unemployment rate hits 9.7% (Bloomberg)
• Supertankers may halt oil trading as rates drop on supply glut, Frontline says (Bloomberg)
• HFTs dominate soon to be eliminated DXO ETF (Alphaville, h/t Lizzie)
• Zimbabwe to get $500 million in IMF loans (BBC)
• Milliseconds are focus in algorithmic trades (Reuters, h/t Adam)

• Unemployment rate: 9.7%, higher than the expected 9.5%.
• Asian stock markets were mostly higher Friday, with mining stocks rising.
• Fed’s Fisher says prolonged period of 'sluggish' economy likely.
• Global economy is emerging from its deep slump faster than forecast: OECD.
• ISM non-manufacturing index rises to 48.4, indicating continued contraction.
• Lead surges to 16-month high after China vows to clean up metals industry.
• Mortgage rates for 30-yr fixed US home loans fell this week to 5.08%: Freddie Mac.

"Markets are traded by people, not machines; and a person’s ability to absorb risk and anxiety is limited. This is why ultra volatile markets eventually calm down - traders become exhausted and close out their risky positions. Although it certainly felt as if the world was going to end, the reality was: This too will pass. It is now seeming more and more likely that although Bernanke may not be able to guarantee a good ending, at least he can make the path there less bumpy. As such, both Actual and Realized Volatility should slowly decline."

That gasping sound you hear coming from the commercial real estate market just means it's alive and kicking.

I feel it appropriate to help distribute Karl Denninger's video response to the currently in vogue effort of the government-subsidized media to discredit those AMERICANS who question current government policy and who suspect that the economy will get worse before it gets better.

Like I said at the start of this post, the world is awash with liquidity, so keep buying them dips and pay attention to the hedge fund heave-ho. It looks like things are getting bubbly all over again.

Americans will have to reach into their wallets and buy some Treasuries. POMO is almost over. Someone has to buy this paper. The problem is that at the current yield the adjusted return is less than 1/2 percent per annum. Who's buying that?

The "loan problem" has not gotten any better, in fact, quite the opposite. Also, for an example of how everything will collapse once the unwind begins, look no farther than Wells Fargo.

Spreads were mixed in the US with all but HY marginally tighter (indices saw very small intraday ranges once again and closed well off their best levels unlike equities). Indices typically underperformed single-names (liquidity was minimal in single-names as dealer notched down spreads to encourage some action in low spread names) with skews mostly narrower as IG underperformed but narrowed the skew, HVOL underperformed but narrowed the skew, ExHVOL intrinsics beat and narrowed the skew, XO's skew increased as the index outperformed, and HY's skew widened as it underperformed.

A fitting headline to cap a day in which retail analysts from various investment banks were yapping ceaselessly, trying to convince CNBC's viewers that consumer discretionary is the next REIT space, and that HFT computers are mere minutes away from trading trillions of shares with one another, thereby pumping retail stocks into the ionosphere, is the news out of the WSJ that Liz Claiborne has hired restructuring and turnaround advisor Alvarez & Marsal, best known for advising the wind-down of Lehman's bankrupt estate.

3:30 pm. To the dot. An underfunded SEC is happy to see computerized HFT tulipmania back in charge of the market.

Without doubt the two biggest issues before the US economy are the threat of a double dip recession and what happens when the massive liquidity pump is i) stopped and ii) put in reverse. And of the key macro economic indicators, deflation is by far the biggest bogeyman (and wildcard). Even in the context of so-called better than expected economic data, i.e., the growth in GDP, a more exhaustive dig through the deflator for gross domestic purchases reveals that deflation has still firmly gripped the economy. Yet price perceptions, which have an impact on the consumer saving and spending rate, while critical are merely one of the numerous indicators that one has to keep an eye on. The group of the four horsemen of a depression also includes overall systemic leverage, the availability of credit, and unemployment.