Archive - 2009

15:00 *U.S. TREASURY ANNOUNCES QUARTERLY BORROWING NEEDS
15:00 *U.S. BORROWED $569 BLN IN OCT.-DEC. QTR VS $550 BLN FORECAST
15:00 *TREASURY CASH BALANCE WAS $367 BLN DEC. 31, $259 BLN FROM FED
15:00 *TREASURY SEES $225 BLN CASH BALANCE MARCH 31, $45 BLN JUNE 30
15:00 *U.S. TREASURY SEES BORROWING OF $165 BLN IN APRIL-JUNE QUARTER
15:00 *HIGHER U.S. BORROWING THIS QTR LARGELY DUE TO FED BILL PROGRAM
15:00 *TREASURY TO BORROW $493 BLN THIS QTR VS $368 BLN NOV. FORECAST

As we have pointed out before, one of the best artistic investments in this depression is possibly the artwork of Geoffrey Raymond.

14:00 *FED RELEASES QUARTERLY SENIOR LOAN OFFICERS SURVEY
14:00 *FED SAYS BANKS REDUCED LIMITS ON LINES OF CREDIT
14:00 *FED SAYS NEARLY 60% OF BANKS TIGHTENED CONSUMER-LOAN TERMS
14:00 *NET 80% OF BANKS TIGHTENED COMMERCIAL REAL-ESTATE LOAN TERMS
14:00 *FED SAYS NET 60% OF BANKS SAW REDUCED BUSINESS-LOAN DEMAND
14:00 *BANKS CITED DETERIORATING ECONOMY IN TIGHTENING LOAN TERMS
14:00 *FED SAYS 90% OF U.S. BANKS INCREASED BUSINESS-LOAN MARGINS
14:00 *FED SAYS 65% OF BANKS MADE IT HARDER TO GET BUSINESS LOANS

A report released earlier by Goldman thinkers Krag Gregory and John Marshall discussing volatility and options strategy, is recommending loading up the boat on S&P puts. The GS "portfolio strategy" team (we assume this is not the guys on the prop side who usually execute the opposite of whatever the sellside guys preach) expects the market to retest the 750 low in Q1, pretty much what Lehman said over the weekend.

The stress of the "biggest bankruptcy in history" and all those fee applications must really be getting to him.

Barclays/Lehman chief market strategist Barry Knapp came out with a report this weekend predicting a 10% drop for the S&P in this quarter, with a low of 750 to come soon. Why the pessimism? As Barry succinctly puts it "We were recently asked - Isn't all the bad news out? Unfortunately, we believe the answer is - No."

According to CNBC. And this includes the previously mentioned moratorium on state tax refunds. Then again, in December people were saying Cali would be out of cash right now, so the governator seems to have eeked out at least one more month of life for his state.

Apparently Vermont has also joined the Death Watch fray.

Tomorrow the D(istreesed)-3 post their January sales numbers. It will come as no surprise as GM, Ford and Chrysler "shock" the market with the latest batch of horrendous news which may likely serve as a preamble to more Detroit-to-DC panhandling daytrips.

Is anyone else getting tired of all these headlines about how Obama and his learned senators will only give aid to banks (and bail out the Western financial system) if the latter increase lending to consumers and companies? With all due respect, this is really dumb for two reasons: consumers actually don't want debt (kinda goes against the whole increasing savings concept) and companies actually have easy access to credit.

Is anyone else getting tired of all these headlines about how Obama and his learned senators will only give aid to banks (and bail out the Western financial system) if the latter increase lending to consumers and companies? With all due respect, this is really dumb for two reasons: consumers actually don't want debt (kinda goes against the whole increasing savings concept) and companies actually have easy access to credit.

• First aggregator bank plan, now Stimulus bill potentially in tatters (FT)
• Bidding war for future CDS clearinghouse (Bloomberg)
• Violent anti-government rallies all over Russia (

• More on Alvarez & Marsal's intrepid raking in of Lehman billable hours (WSJ)
• Charter Communications to file for bankruptcy any minute (NY Post)
• South Carolina penitentiary inmate No.
  

Restructuring consultancy firm Alvarez & Marsal has decided to take the easy way out, and simply give creditors in the Lehman's bankruptcy equity instead of trying to maximize cash recoveries. The bulk of Lehman's residual value (or lack thereof) is contained in its hard to value real estate and private equity assets.

When you have the House Agriculture Committee getting involved in the regulation of the CDS market, it is only a matter of time before it is game over. When both conventional wisdom, and economists-turned-philosophers like Soros claim that credit default swaps are responsible for the downfall of western civilization, presenting any type of factual information is pretty much useless.