Archive - 2009

New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg testified before the state assembly ways and means committee about what the proposed NY State budget would mean for NYC. In a nutshell, NYC is on the verge of 1970's Taxi Driver status.

BofA estimates that the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve combined, now are responsible for directly supporting about 70% of the banking system liabilities and 20% of shareholders' equity. Presuming there is virtually no equity value in U.S. banking, which would of course be the case without systemic support, then liabilities equal assets. In that case, in a government mediated vicious circle, U.S. taxpayers have indirectly paid off 70% of the loans that the US banking system has underwritten to U.S. taxpayers...

BofA estimates that the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve combined, now are responsible for directly supporting about 70% of the banking system liabilities and 20% of shareholders' equity. Presuming there is virtually no equity value in U.S. banking, which would of course be the case without systemic support, then liabilities equal assets. In that case, in a government mediated vicious circle, U.S. taxpayers have indirectly paid off 70% of the loans that the US banking system has underwritten to U.S. taxpayers...

The drama in U.K. financials this week highlighted the systemic division as to how different governments approach the "bail out" problem absent of an outright nationalization. The current two main options on the table, which Obama's administration will have to pick and choose from unless he decides to nationalize Citi, BofA, and others outright, are the "aggregator bank" and the "bad bank" models, as seen in the U.K. and in Switzerland, respectively.

• The Mattress Savings plan (OptionARM via FT Alphaville)
• Russia reserves lost $30.3 billion last week in ongoing failed attempt to prop ruble (Bloomberg)
• Gold from the British Pound perspective (FT Alphaville)

GDP at 6.8% was not a surprise: it was Right on top of expectations. This is compared to 9.0% for the same period last year.
PPI came out at -1.1%, a whole 100 bps lower than consensus, and much lower from the 2% last year.
CPI was 1.2% versus an expectation of 1.6%. The decline in CPI indicates deflation is picking up; the more notable decline in the PPI is more troubling as it is a leading indicator for much lower CPI numbers down the line.

After yesterday's bungled swearing in ceremony, Obama was sworn in repeatedly in the privacy of the White House today at 7:35 pm due to a misplaced adverb. At yesterday’s inauguration ceremony Roberts misstated the oath as “execute the office of president of the United States faithfully” and Obama followed suit.

After yesterday's bungled swearing in ceremony, Obama was sworn in repeatedly in the privacy of the White House today at 7:35 pm due to a misplaced adverb. At yesterday’s inauguration ceremony Roberts misstated the oath as “execute the office of president of the United States faithfully” and Obama followed suit.

In what will likely be tomorrow's #1 scandal on CNBC, FT reports that Merrill had decided to pay bonuses in December ahead of their usual payout time in February, and just three days before the merger with Bank of America closed.

In what will likely be tomorrow's #1 scandal on CNBC, FT reports that Merrill had decided to pay bonuses in December ahead of their usual payout time in February, and just three days before the merger with Bank of America closed.

Most interestingly among the negative covenants listed:

• Creating liens on any properties
• Incur additional debt prior to March 2010, if pro forma leverage is higher than 2.75x
• Engage in sale/leaseback transactions, with up to $225 million carveout for NYT HQ building
• Merge or consolidate with other assets
• Transfer or sell assets, with any sales over $10 million have to be used to pay down debt

There is also a 101% change of control put.

As investment banking is now dead and sell side research is even more useless than it ever was, people are stumped over how and where to get their investing ideas.