Archive - Jan 13, 2010

Another day to mark down. How many times have we seen this happen? Where key "leading" sectors are shanked one day then cranked the next day during expiration week? Fear and greed is now oscillating between extremes on a daily basis, as bewildered and confused fund managers are getting whipsawed by the Prop Desk traders.

OUTLOOK: The negative outlook reflects our concerns about the large structural projected budget deficits facing the state and their implications for the state's cash position. Following a year in which the state grappled with a more than $60 billion deficit, we think the current deficit of approximately $19 billion could be more difficult to resolve given the state's extensive reliance on nonrecurring measures in the prior budget cycle. We believe indications of economic stabilization suggest that a recovery, if underway, remains precarious. Furthermore, if economic or revenue trends substantially falter, we could lower the state rating during the next six to 12 months.

The December budget numbers are out and they are ugly. December was the record 15th straight budget deficit in a row with -$91.9 billion more in outflows than inflows, compared to a $51.8 billion deficit in December of 2008. Fiscal 2010 budget deficit so far is -$388.5 billion, and $1.47 trillion for the trailing twelve months.

CRE is still the biggest wildcard: "Commercial real estate was still weak in nearly all Districts with rising vacancy rates and falling rents. Since the last report, loan demand continued to decline or remained weak in most Districts, while credit quality continued to deteriorate." - Beige Book

If the government isn't doing anything to fix this dangerous situation, we'll have to do it ourselves ...

“I am very pleased that the Commission is ready to ask serious questions and drill down beneath the standard-issue ‘provides liquidity’ defense of high frequency trading. The SEC needs to understand and control technology and its benefits, not permit technology to operate without regulatory understanding or access to needed data, and in doing so outrace the regulators’ ability to ensure market fairness for long-term investors. I am hopeful that a variety of independent parties will provide the Commission with the empirical studies needed to assess the price impacts of these trades on long term investors, though I worry that the data needed to undertake those studies is still not available,” - Senator Ted Kaufman

Yields 3.754% vs. Exp. 3.763%

Bid To Cover 3.00 vs. Avg. 2.86 (Prev. 2.62)

Indirects take down 29.0% vs. Avg. 43.05% (Prev. 34.76%)

Indirect Bid To Cover 1.89

Alloted at high 49.95%

Direct bid take down surges again to 17%from 8.9%

- New Study Analyzes The Bill’s 200-Plus Pages Covering Derivatives, Outlines Potential Industry Impact And Gives A Timeline Leading To US Senate Passage
- Says New Competition Lies Ahead For Dominant Major Dealers From New Group Of Smaller, Nimble Tech-Savvy Dealers

With Greece imploding, the last thing we need is for the US market to do what it did when Dubai faced a near-death experience in November. Whether or not that is the reason, we don't know, but someone just purchased a massive order of ES futures contracts in the open market, causing a dramatic spike in the market, and breaking the dollar's trendline.

Low policy rates don’t impact speculative grade debt so much. Mortality rates for lower-rated debt are much higher than investment-grade debt; the three year mark is where defaults really start to bite. Three years ago (2007), 51% of HY issuance was rated B or below. Mortalities have been accelerated by economic factors, but cumulative default rates will still be high. A buy-and-hold strategy with a broad index of HY debt consistently outperforms the Treasury benchmark. Trading strategies benefit from treasury positioning.

RANsquawk 13th January US Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

The latest indication of the exuberance in high yield was today's announcement from oil-tanker owner Teekay. The firm is offering $300 million of debt to finance a tender offer of the firm's 8.875% 2011 senior notes. Nothing has changed from the frothy days of 2007: tender short, provide sweetener, price longer maturity deal, wait out the next crash, repeat. In the meantime, the company's products are used as glorified warehouses to store ever greater amounts of oil for that day when Goldman's $1,000,000/barrel price prediction finally comes through. In the mean time, EIA reported another 3.7 million crude inventory build to 331 million barrels. Of course, massive supply will bring its own demand... Eventually.

Dubai - meet Greece. Apparently credit traders appreciate biblical allusions, as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou "promised" for the third time today that all is good in the debt-stricken country, claiming there is "no way" the country would leave the euro or seek aid from the IMF. Credit's response: Greek CDS surges to an all time high of 327 bps, and the country now represents 24% of SovX risk.

So... Timmy... Who's lying here?

First flash, now naked access. While we are certain those whole livelihood depends on scalping and manipulating markets and finding loopholes from regulation will scream bloody murder (look at the industry response to suggestions that HFT is "evil") will provide some very vocal public comments, at least the SEC implicitly acknowledges that naked access is not quite the boon to investors that Goldman et al would like to make it seem.

It should come as no surprise that Zero Hedge has long been warning against the dangers of sponsored access. Some broad background on the topic can be found here and here.

For once we applaud the SEC in this endeavor. Of course, once the SEC ends the public comment solicitation period with "no action", or a ruling that does nothing at all to change the actual naked access process, we will resume our daily calls for Mary Schapiro's immediate resignation.