Archive - Jan 17, 2010

From the MSM I was getting a sense that the Census hiring might be a factor in the employment story. I don't think it adds up to a hill of beans.

An extended analysis of TIC, FMS, DTS and TreasuryDirect data confirms that while Indirect bidders (aka Foreign Investors) continue to bid up US Government securities, their interest in the short end of the curve has not only declined, but accelerated redemptions have left Indirects with a heavily weighted long bond exposure. This raises the following questions: are inflation expectations once again vastly premature, who keeps buying the short-end at record low yields, and what kind of event will be responsible for the unwind of the groupthink idea of the day: the curve steepener?

What will happen when the 26-mile long tanker convoy carrying 127 million barrels starts offloading since the oil storage trade is no longer as profitable?

I am so tired of the absolute nonsensical and foolish approach in regards to Banker Bonuses taken by both the Obama administration as well as the bankers themselves. Here's what is really going on and what should should be going on if we lived in a world that was dependent on telling the truth, prudent financial management, reduction of systemic risk, and if a cure to our banking system malady is genuinely being sought.

Again, if you’re hung-up on the markets and making money, and think we’re profiting from such little plugs, don’t click here. Read-on if you think you’re cooler than the next guy (in a James Dean kind of way), like to spend money, like cars and hope to re-kindle the magic of a true, open air roadster in the purest, more expensive sense.

While banks would be the last entities to reveal disclosure on bonuses during the current time filled with populist agita and froth (it certainly would "destabilize" the financial system if Joe Sixpack was aware that XYZ's main bond trader made $50 million simply by buying short and lending long), none other than Tim Geithner's treasury department provides a convenient way to track aggregate bonus dissemination data in the form of daily tax withholding data from the Financial Management Service. A historical analysis indicates that December and January are traditionally the high outlier months when it comes to tax withholdings, for the simple reason that these two months is when the majority of bonuses payments are disbursed, and being defined as "supplemental income" and taxed at a flat Federal rate per IRS publication 15, they provide the double whammy of increased income tax withholdings and a higher withholding rate. Zero Hedge has compiled daily data from the past three years' bonus seasons to determine whether there is any secular shift to bonus outlays, not just on Wall Street but Main Street as well (surprisingly for the Obama administration, the bulk of withholdings does not come from Wall Street). Our observations were somewhat unexpected.

1) Data Stream Waves, from Jim Sogi ~ 2) How Music 'Moves' Us: Listeners' Brains Second-Guess the Composer ~ 3) Scientists Map Brain Pathway for Vocal Learning ~ 4) New Computer Vision System for the Analysis of Human Behavior ~ 5) Neural Thermostat Keeps Brain Running Efficiently