Archive - Jan 6, 2010

"Longer-term, I still think we are in a lot of trouble, a heap of trouble...I am still on the bearish bent. End of the year I think we will be here or a little lower. I am sorry." - Peter Costa

"The New York Fed continuously reviews the stress value estimates and recently identified and corrected a methodological error. The New York Fed has determined that as a result of this error, one legacy CMBS — CUSIP 059497AX5 — was accepted as collateral that would not have been accepted using the current methodology. However, the New York Fed continues to expect no losses on the loans backed by this CMBS because the stress value is based on extremely unlikely economic circumstances, and because the market value of this CMBS is well above the TALF loan amounts." - New York Fed

When you have your back against the wall, and the only thing at your disposal is the Fed's money printer on loan, what do you do? Well, if you are the Treasury, you let money rain. Literally. In December, according to the Financial Management Service, the US Treasury dispensed a stunning 69.5% more in Social Security Outlays and Unemployment Insurance on a year over year basis: the administration knew all too well it could not afford to let this holiday season go to waste. So, after averaging at $43.6 billion in monthly outlays, Social Security withdrawals from the UST surged by a unprecedented 48.6% in December to a whopping $69.5 billion. This is not a volatile or seasonal series.

• ECB Board member Juergen Stark says buck stops here, EU will not bail out Greece "The markets are deluding themselves when they think at a
  certain point the other member states will put their hands on
  their wallets to save Greece", comments whack euro (Bloomberg, FT)
• In the meantime, Greece, its head stuck deep up its...sand, says bailout not needed contrary to every indication to the opposite (Bloomberg)
• Iceland, and Iceman Mishkin, also thought so once, now country promises it won't default either, Dubai deja vu (Bloomberg)
• If Fed missed this bubble, will it see a new one (NYT)
• The rats are fleeing the global excess liquidity titanic en masse: first Dodd, now Japan Finance Minister - Naoto Kan named new fin minister (Bloomberg)
• Report from the "move your money" front (HuffPo and IRR)

Ontario Teachers' buys AIG's Canadian mortgage business and CPPIB makes some internal shifts in management.

RANsquawk 6th January Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

2009 was an incredibly interesting year both politically and financially, as both arenas are inextricably intertwined, though on the surface, the leaders from these respective industries often bicker and admonish one another for public show, while smiling and shaking hands behind closed doors. Uncovering this complex and hidden connection almost always requires much deeper digging than is ever executed by mass media financial journalists, who often seem more intent on fawning to banking interests rather than revealing the smallest speck of truth to the public.

Not pretty ...

This article addresses a recent study done by a couple of hedge fund managers regarding the performance of various asset classes during the inflationary 1970s. What performed best on an inflation adjusted basis during the 1970s? Stocks? Gold? Oil? Bonds?

Developing....

Chatting about the greatest security breach in US history. Food and oil are now national security issues. And for that matter, so is our foreign borrowing.