Archive - Oct 18, 2010

madhedgefundtrader's picture

Where to buy the Next Dip in Gold





Those who were too clever by half and traded out of the yellow metal early are now trying to buy it back on any dip, driving it relentlessly higher. The gold industry is in a supply/demand sweet spot now, as supplies have been ex-growth for a decade in the face of a rising tide of demand. Peak gold is upon us, and unexploited deposits are getting farther and fewer between. (INIVX), (AEM), (KGC), (GOLD).

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: How Can Everyone Be So Incompetent?





I am what many here (most especially myself) and elsewhere love to make fun of. I am a true blue Digital Dickweed. A Digital Dickweed has been defined by others as someone that is genuinely unemployed, in my case a government pensioner, errr, freeloader (100% disabled veteran), non high school graduate who lives in the basement of their parents home (or the spare bedroom of a family member’s home in my case) blogging. In essence, the old war veteran that sits on his front porch and watches the world go by, aka JAFO (Just Another Fucking Observer). So, let’s take a look see at the talk from off South Main Street. - Miles Kendig

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Lessons From Zimbabwe





Simon Black's Sovereign Man is currently covering a topic that will be near and dear to all Americans' hearts if the Fed gets its way: Zimbabwe. Attached are his most recent thoughts and observations from the (Zimbabwean) field, and a summary of the political, monetary and overal social chaos that currently rules in the latest (but certainly not last) country to succumb to hyperinflation. The lesson to be learned: prepare for anything. Because nobody in Harare expected to wake up one day and see all their wealth gone.

 

Leo Kolivakis's picture

Private Equity -- All Aboard?





Stay tuned – the private equity trend is one to watch carefully.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Here Is The Real Reason Why The Fed Is Delaying The New $100 Bill





A few weeks ago, the Fed announced that the new $100 dollar note has been delayed, and will not make broad circulation by the February 2011 scheduled date. Contrary to prior rumors that either the Fed's printer had finally broken, or that all the ink had been used up, courtesy of William Banzai we now know the true reason. Over the past several months, using the smokescreen of QE 2, the Fed has been secretly contemplating two completely different monetary concepts, both very much appropriate for our Keynesian end-times. Since the Fed will shortly request public commentary on which of the two alternatives should be implemented, we present them to Zero Hedge readers first.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

FX Wars Escalate: Brazil Cancels Participation In Upcoming G20 Meeting





The latest currency war escalation does not come from any of the usual suspects (the Fed-PBoC-BOJ-ECB-SNB hate pentagongram) but from non-axis player Brazil. And it's a doozy - the country's top economic officials have decided to cancel their trip to Seoul in what is likely the first jarring demonstrating of defection from the G-20 cartel. The reason for this last minute defection from the Central Banking proletariat , as given by Finance Minister Guido Mantega and cited by Reuters, is, appropriately enough: "currency issues." Nuff said. And while Mantega has decided to pay a last minute cancellation fee, he is not alone - the president of the central bank Henrique Meirelles has also withdrawn from the list of attendees, due the totally unforeseeable event of monetary policy meetings to be held on Tuesday and Wednesday. Obviously those were unheard of when the G-20 was scheduling the time and date of its location. Next up on defection watch: Hildebrand and Shirakawa. It will go oddly elegant in addition to the (FX) suicide watch they have been on for about a week.

 

Reggie Middleton's picture

Reggie Middleton Wasn’t the ONLY Openly Apple Bear in the Blogoshpere, Was He?





The latest on Apple's earnings that went far in corroborating what I've been preaching for months to a bunch of crazed, excitable Apple fanatics who simply refused to see facts for what they were. Its called compression!

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Brown Brothers Musings On The "Broken Cash Register" And Why Economic Prosperity May Never Again Return





Some essayistic views from Brown Brothers Harriman on the current regime: in what is an elegent symmetry, BBH notes that the current collapse is merely the denouement of the earlier period of success, what the author dubs the Reagan-Thatcher model. "The current crisis is the breakdown of the Reagan-Thatcher cash register. Its own success seems to be the main culprit. It reached some logical conclusion. The leveraging and deregulation, and perhaps the sheer size of the capital stock, overwhelmed the US’s ability to absorb it and, in some quarters, raised Triffin Dilemma-like problems: the magnitude and persistence of the current account itself began undermining the cash register." Where the narrative is less elegant is the policy recommendation that China, which is perceived as the last great hope for the developed world should adopt the same failed Bismarkian model that is now in its death rattles across the entire developed world: "Ultimately the world economy must generate less surplus capital. The surplus countries need to reduce their savings by boosting consumption. One way China could reduce its incredible savings rate would be for the Chinese government to provide some of the basic public goods that most other countries provide their citizens, such as greater social security, unemployment compensation, and, yes, even national health care." In a sense, BBH suggests the US should export communism so that the oligarchy can enjoy a few more years of excess returns, after which, the flood. Yet even they realize it is likely too late to set off on such a course: "It is possible that the Reagan-Thatcher cash register cannot be salvaged. That would suggest a rather foreboding future. Yet, just as in 1971, it was impossible to have anticipated the features of the Reagan-Thatcher cash register, so too we may not be able to envisage a new one. Just like China would still have to confront its massive reserves even if they were to shift of out dollars, so too does the challenge of absorbing the vast world savings transcend national or regional focus of the more common dramatic narratives. While some  semblance of recovery is possible, without a solution to this problem, economic prosperity may not return -- no matter the configuration of  geopolitics." And this will be precisely the final outcome, no matter how hard the Krugmanites push for just another dance with the rotting corpse of John M Keynes.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Daily Oil Market Summary: 10.18.2010





Oil prices rebounded sharply on Monday, just as soon as we thought we had some conclusive technical indications that the oil complex might be headed lower. This has been an ongoing embarrassment for a number of us who have been watching this complex for most of our lives. Every time, we seem to see a fresh statistic or chart that tells us prices now want to move in one direction to the preference of the other direction, we see an immediate move in the opposite direction. On Friday, it looked like prices had made a top in this complex – to our eyes. Of course, by the end of the day’s trading, it looked like prices were back in a trading range - or might be turning higher, again. - Cameron Hanover

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Visualizing A POMO Market: How The Fed Added 400 Points To The S&P





Lately, it appears, it has gotten trendy to bash the New York Fed's Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO), especially by various self-appointed godfathers of the blogosphere. The logic goes, or so we interpret the thinking, that any given POMO is nothing but yet another component of the various signals that enter into the "perfectly efficient market" and the Fed's intervention is something that is perfectly acceptable, should be a tradeable event, and is nothing of real significance (and, of course, the original narrative would come wrapped in 10 paragraphs or so of fluff). Whatever. Below, in collaboration with John Lohman, we show what the market would look like without POMO, versus a market that is predicated exclusively on FRBNY interventions. The bottom line: starting with the first POMO in 2005, when the S&P was at 1,200 and continuing through today, the broader market index would have been at just over 800 if performance from POMO days was excluded. Alternatively, purely POMO days would have had the effect of doubling the stock market in the past 5 years. We hope readers can decide on their own whether Fed intervention in this case implies causation.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

SPY Flash Crashes: NYSE Cancels $500 Million Worth Of Trades





The world's most traded security flash crashes. NYSE forced to unwind $500 million worth of shares. The market is a farce, wrapped in a joke, inside a tragicomedy.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Meet The Top 150 Holders Of Apple Stock





150 funds are responsible for $177 billion worth of Apple's market cap. The question now is who, among the 150 below, in tried and true and neverfailing "game theory" will be the first to defect and bail, starting an avalanche in the price of the fad-focused retailer.

 

RANSquawk Video's picture

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 18/10/10





RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 18/10/10

 

Tyler Durden's picture

iTIMBER





Funny thing about bubbles. They pop. HFTs playing a serious game of pass the hot grenade right now. Everyone please join us in prayer that Waddell and Reed does not decide to sell a block of 10 ES contracts right now, as the world could very well blow up.

 
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