Archive - Oct 29, 2010

MoneyMcbags's picture

GDP is the trick for Bernanke's QE2 treat





The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (the uglier, less douchey stepsister to the B(L)S) released their first take on Q3 GDP this morning and it was unsurprisingly relatively more benign than a testicular mole or even Henry the IV of France.

 

williambanzai7's picture

Banzai7 Goes to the Rally (I only wish)





If you are sick and tired and need somewhere to go, here is the place...

 

Leo Kolivakis's picture

Squeezed and Opting Out of Pensions?





Hundreds of thousands of Britons have taken a holiday from their personal pension contributions, in further proof of the severity with which household budgets have been squeezed by the economic downturn.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Obama Statement On Rampant And "Credible" UPS Package Terrorism





I hereby would like to announce the appointment of the False Fl.., er, Terrorism Czar...

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Commitment Of Traders: The Speculative Treasury Bubble Pops As Dollar Longs Continue Rising





Today's CFTC Commitment of Trader data confirms that the dollar strengthening trend from last week continues: net spec commercial positions in the USD are now well off their lows from three weeks ago and are up to 5,850, after hitting a 2010 low of -1,580. At the same time, both JPY and EUR spec positions declined (by -2,727 and -6,243 positions, respectively) as the rotation into the dollar, as brief as it may end up being, accelerated. Whether this was merely momentum chasing or an expectation of a less efficient QE2 can be answered by looking at select commodity positions. A quick glance at wheat, soybeans, coffee, corn and oats shows that pretty much all 5 representative commodities saw their net long spec positions increase again. So QE2 is definitely going to manifest itself in more inflation, or so at least claim the speculators. Yet not is as it seems: a look at Treasury specs shows a combined drop across the 2, 5 and 10Y space of 123,835 contracts to 186,892, only the second largest drop in 2010, which occurred after the cumulative total hit a 2010 record of 310,727 the week prior! In other words, even as specs were discounting an increase in inflation and a potential increase in the value of the dollar, the bond bubble officially popped.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Presenting October Total Stock Market Volume





Oh yeah, those banks sure are making a killing on the sudden and dramatic resurgence in trading. If one looks carefully, one can almost, but not quite, see that crazy DeMarkian formation that predicts that in 10 years someone may actually trade stocks again.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Trigger Points, Black Swans, And Other Unpleasant Realities





An avalanche is not an “event”, it is an epic; a series of smaller events drifting and compacting one after another until the contained potential energy reaches an apex, a point at which it can no longer be managed or inhibited. A single tremor, an inopportune echo, an unexpected shift in the winds, and the entire icy edifice, the product of countless layered storms, is sent crashing down the valley like a great and terrible hand. In this way, avalanches in nature are quite similar to avalanches in economies; both events accumulate over the long span of seasons, and finally end in the bewildering flash of a single moment. The problem that most people have today is being unable to tell the difference between a smaller storm in our economy, and an avalanche. Very few Americans have ever personally witnessed a financial collapse, and so, when confronted with an initiating event, like the stock market plunge of 2008, they have no point of reference with which to compare the experience. They misinterpret the crash as a finale. Untouched, they breathe a sigh of relief, unaware that this is merely the beginning of something much more complex and threatening. So, without personal experience on our side to help us recognize a trigger point incident; the catalyst that brings down our meticulously constructed house of cards, how will we stand watch? Will we miss the danger parading right in front of our faces? Will we be caught completely off-guard?

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Dollar-Yen Closes At All Time Low





Technically, the USDJPY still has about an hour left of trading, but we will call it early: the dollar yen has closed at the all time lowest level in history. Next week the USDJPY will likely be well beneath 80, especially after the QE2 announcement on Wednesday. At least Japanese exporters are happy that in FX adjusted terms US importers now have the least incentive to buy Japanese TVs and other irrelevant stuff soon to be found all over US landfills.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Will The $426 Billion "Second Lien Monster" Require A New Marshall Plan For Housing? Reuters Special Report On Fraudclosure





Reuters' Matt Goldstein has completed a special report on foreclosure fraud, asking rhetorically: "foreclosures are rising; lawsuits are flying; banks are beleaguered; there has to be a better way?" Goldstein looks at fraudclosure from the perspective of the fight between junior and senior liens, a topic Zero Hedge discussed a month ago (The Foreclosure Mess MBS Hate Triangle Emerges: Junior Versus Senior Bondholders Versus Servicers) highlighting that $426 billion in loans are second lien, and, as highlighted previously, sit on the balance sheets of BofA, JPM, Wells and Citi in the biggest circle jerk in this whole mortgage crisis fiasco (always remember: one TBTF's mismarked assets always end up being another TBTF's unfudgeable liabilities). As the chart below shows, the banks have no choice but to come up with a compromise: obstinately keeping their heads in the sand is a guaranteed way for the entire financial system to blow up.

 

RANSquawk Video's picture

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 29/10/10





RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 29/10/10

 

williambanzai7's picture

SYMPATHY FOR THE SHORTS (Banzai7 Halloween Countdown Friday Edition)





Please allow me to introduce myself--
I'm a man of wealth and taste--
Ive been around for a long, long year--
Stole many a man's nest egg and faith...

 

Tyler Durden's picture

John Taylor: "November Will See The Flash Point That Begins The Market's Reversal"





John Taylor, who has not made any friends at the administration with his recent comparison of Ben Bernanke to Hitler, has released his latest letter whose purpose is to disabuse what Traxis flip flopper extraordinaire Barton Biggs (or rather is praying, due to his high single digit negative YTD P&L), as well as many others believe, will be a 10% boom in stocks prices following November 3. Wrong. As this whole rally has been liquidity driven, all that will take to reverse it, is for someone to step between the Chairman and his favorite Hewlett Packard. That someone: anti-Fed crusader Ron Paul, who will see this as his last mandate (and chance) to leave a memorable mark on the Fed's modus operandi: "After the Republican victory things will change. The Fed will be
hamstrung, as Ron Paul, a conservative standard-bearer and harsh critic
of the Fed, will head the sub-committee overseeing its actions.
Liquidity expansion or new programs will probably drop sharply under his
watch.
Paul would argue that the Fed’s unfettered ability to “debase” the currency is about to come to an end" Which is why all those who believe "more of the same" will continue indefinitely, may be wise to hedge their bets. Taylor also looks at the game theory between the Fed and the ECB: "As the US authorities turn to a tighter monetary and fiscal policy,
driving the country into a recession, causing the US and its banking
system to withdraw liquidity forcing the dollar higher, the ECB will be
forced to be more accommodative. Our analysis argues that the month of
November will see the flash point that begins to reverse the markets’
optimistic course."

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Fear And Greed's Chris Wood Discounts The Fed Fetish





Somehow, CLSA's Chris Wood is always correct in the end. The only prediction where he has been wrong, for now, is in his $3,400 gold price target by the end of 2010 (which was set back in 2002). But have no fear: as he explains "There is some surprise here that gold has not already gone higher given
everything that has been going on and given Billyboy’s evident
willingness to keep interest rates at zero for a long period. That gold
is not higher shows that the consensus has not yet appreciated that the
real reason to own gold is not “inflation” but rather the growing risk
that the endgame of the present policy response is the collapse of the
Western fiat paper system.
" And considering that there is a trader meme going around that every fake bomb is equal to $100 billion in QE, and we are up to something like 8 or 9, not to mention that the T(eleprompter)OTUS is about to make a speech post market close, the dollar is almost certainly about to get the Friendo treatment by the chairman.

 

Reggie Middleton's picture

The Trillion Dollar LIE? Housing Activity and Prices, Lending, Credit and Charge-offs Are All Getting Worse SINCE the Bailout!





It looks like we've lost nearly trillion dollars in housing value and credit since the recession ended. With recoveries like this, who needs a depression?!

 
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