Archive - Oct 2010

Over the last two weeks, I’ve called for a reversal in stocks. It seems I’ve completely underestimated the ability of the Federal Reserve and its Primary Dealers to ramp the market higher on next to no volume.

Indeed, stocks have soared in the last six weeks, posting their best September performance in 71 years and rising roughly 12% from trough to peak. This surpasses even July’s monster rally of 11.1% from trough to peak, stands as the most aggressive rally since the April 2010 top.

RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 11/10/10

Last night on 60 Minutes, Steve Kroft, finally brought mainstream America's attention to the topic that has been the primary scourge of efficient markets over the past 5 years: High Frequency Trading (not to be confused with Signing, aka RoboSigning). In Wall Street: The Speed Traders, Kroft spoke to such advocates of a robot parasite-free as Themis Trading's Joe Saluzzi and (now ex) Senator Ted Kaufman, as well as some other individuals who stand to benefit by computerized feedback loops making a mockery of price discovery, and which have now caused something like ten mini flash crashes in as many days, not counting the Flash Crash itself. Of course, the only defense the HFT lobby continues to use is that it provides liquidity. Which is why, once again falling back to scientific literature, this time a study by Andrei Kirilenko of the CFTC et al (which is also obviously biased as the CFTC, just as the SEC, stand to lose what last credibility they have if it is indeed discovered that it was precisely SEC and CFTC endorsed HFT, and not Waddell and Reed, that was the cause of the Flash Crash, something we refuted flatly last week), which demonstrates just how fallacious any claims that HFTs provide liquidity are. In a word: "HFTs traded over 1,455,000 contracts, accounting for almost a third of total trading volume on that day. Yet, net holdings of HFTs fluctuated around zero so rapidly that they rarely held more than 3,000 contracts long or short on that day." Said otherwise, Liquidity-to-Volume ratio: 0.00206%.

Canada is a strange country. We extol our health and education system but the reality is we do very little to promote lifestyle changes that prevent diseases, starting with educating people on proper diets and exercise programs.

We present another great review of market dynamics from the eyes of a quant, this time coming yet again Barclays' Matt Rothman. With Risk On, Risk Off the dominant regime since QE2 speculation, and likely to last into the end of the year, throw away all fundamental textbooks, and focus on what it is the momo machines are chasing. Which is simple: to outperform in this market, load up on high beta stocks and high short interest names. The rest is noise. Which means a bloodbath for "disciplined stock pickers" - as Rothman says "the investment managers who are suffering are the truly disciplined stock pickers. Those managers who are diligent about having no style tilts or theme tilts or sector biases are finding it nearly impossible to generate returns. There are no investment opportunities returns for these managers to capitalize on. There are no idiosyncratic  returns available in the market for them and the situation has, essentially, never been worse, anytime in the past 60 years." Then again, there are no traditional stock pickers left anymore - everyone now does the same as Pimco - stay one step of the Fed (and just imitate what everyone else is doing), or risk losing your job. In the meantime the biggest groupthink trade ever is getting bigger by the day, as everyone hopes and prays profit taking never occurs.

In this week's update of "insiders selling to idiots", we find that the ratio of shares sold to bought by insiders is once again in the four digit range: 1,169 to 1 to be specific. In the past week, insider buying in S&P 500 companies amounted to only $286,000, the bulk of which was in MEMC (WFR). As for the selling: well, it appears ORCL insiders just can't wait to dump as much as they can as fast as possible. Oracle was promptly followed by such overpriced stalwarts as Google, Marriott, Autozone and Salesforce. We wonder if these insiders provide direct or indirect kickbacks to the HFTs who keep bidding the stock up at incremental penny losses, yet are fully compensated for "providing liquidity" by the exchanges in the good ole' liquidity rebate system. The silver lining: this certainly is an improvement on last week's 2,341-1 ratio. Perhaps even the idiots are getting skittish about owning stocks without having access to the Fed's backstop facilities. Also, keep in mind that the primary dealers have about $60 billion in Bills to repurchase past the End of quarter window dressing. Unfortuantely, for the players in the hot potato game, this capital can only come from stock sales.

You thought you knew everything there is to know about the implications, consequences, and ways to frontrun the government's QE2? You were wrong. For everything you always wanted to know about Quantitative Easing, and about 100 pages more, here is Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron with the definitive presentation deck on everything wicked that this way comes.

Blackrock Q4 outlook summary: "Dear Greater Fools - please come back! We need you, our ETF creation shares need you, our trillions in overrated investments need you!" From Bob Doll: "Equity valuations are attractive: We believe equities are underpriced at current levels. The tricky economic backdrop suggests a continued focus on high-quality equities, but also some allocation to cyclical areas of the market."

Well duh.

Jan Hatzius pretty much slams the door on any possibility for a liquidity moderation (let alone exit): "We found that under our own economic forecasts it might take until 2015 or longer before a rate hike became appropriate." In other words, the US economy will very likely just go down in flames, as the Fed makes sure that each and every American is infinitely "rich" courtesy of zero cost debt denominated in worthless dollars. The only salvation from this outcome is for the rest of the world to stage a Fed intervention before it all burns down.

• Foreclosure Freeze May Slow U.S. Homebuyers on Legal Worry (Bloomberg, WSJ)
• Currency Rift With China Exposes Shifting Clout (NYT)
• Obama has the book thrown at him: Moment a missile narrowly misses U.S. President's head (and what's with the naked man?) (Daily Mail)
• No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error (Hussman)
• Greece to be bankrupt longer than expected as IMF to extend loans (Bloomberg) even despite Germany's ongoing protests (Bloomberg)
• Here comes the $100 porterhouse (Bloomberg)
• Currency wars are necessary if all else fails (Telegraph)
• Even $21 Billion Won't Get You a Greek Island Amid Red Tape (Bloomberg)
• Goldman director's wild parties riles co-op board (NYPost)

Ben Bernanke has privatized the upside of the global stock, bond, currency, commodity, energy, and precious metals markets, and socialized the downside, with his much publicized move towards quantitative easing. While former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulsen spoke about a bazooka in his pocket, Helicopter Ben is hinting that he has a 100 megaton thermo nuclear weapon.

• Asian currency tensions bubble as dollar falls.
• Asian shares rise on QE expectations; Yen hits 15-year high against dollar.
• China fends off pressure on Yuan, keeps gradual gain.
• Euro above $1.40 mark again after poor jobs data.
• Freeze on foreclosures could undermine recovery in housing market.
• Global finance chiefs fail to resolve exchange-rate spat as G-20 splinters.
• IMF can give Greece more time to repay loan if needed, Strauss-Kahn says.

Recent rumors of a hike in the Chinese deposit reserve ratio, were finally proven true, after earlier today China suddenly, and unexpectedly, hiked the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5% for 6 big banks for two months, to a level of 17.5%. As this is a modest liquidity-withdrawal move, it is a substitute to an overall rate hike which has also been rumored to be in the works. Of course, with the US about to embark on a "rate-lowering" equivalent move via more QE 2, it would be silly to believe China would actually follow through with this at this point, and put itself at a disadvantage. As such this modest stop gap overheating-prevention move makes sense. Whether it will be a catalyst to reverse the recent move higher in domestic Chinese stock market remains to be seen.

Although the Federal Reserve and therefore the fixed-income markets are closed for Columbus Day, we have the two Vice Chairmen, of the FOMC and the Board of Governors, both speaking today…

After a bad opening, there is hope for the middle game. After a bad middle game, there is hope for the endgame. But once you are in the endgame, the moment of truth has arrived. - Edmar Mednis (Grandmaster)