Archive - Oct 2010

Ben's stepping on Tim's turf. Actually he stepping on the Executive Branch. Who cares?

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RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 28/10/10

There are several articles and studies around the finance industry that talk about the value of sell-side analyst ratings or the lack thereof. Most of the studies provide a negative view of the accuracy of ratings from sell-side analysts and bring to light the many potential problems associated with sell-side analysts and their ratings including conflicts of interest with the firms that employ them as well as their tendency to appease management teams who provide them with information not available to the public by providing favorable ratings for those firms. Some other problems associated with sell-side analyst ratings include: 1) Buy recommendations outnumber sell recommendations some speculate for the purpose of making management happy. 2) Analysts often downgrade firms after negative news has already hit public eyes. 3) Unable to purchase the stocks that they cover, no “skin in the game” 4) Analysts often find comfort in being a part of the majority and often times fall victim to groupthink. 5) Compensation analyst’s receive has been found to be tied to the investment banking business the analyst generates.

As Zero Hedge will be unable to post news updates over the next several hours, feel free to use this open thread as a forum for any important developments and observations.

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars. By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar through undisciplined fiscal policy, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention. It’s called debase, default and deny.

Darkness Falls Across Obanksta Land, The Asian Trading Day Is Close At Hand...

Based on the data, it appears that banks, especially the regional and local banks, are starting to solve their nonperforming loan problems. This is a very significant bit of data and is relevant to the credit crunch we are having. Will it translate into increased loan activity and a recovery?

Yesterday we made a big stink over the Fed's reverse inquiry into the PD community over how much QE2 it should launch. Today, we find out what the distribution is: as Merrill's Harley Bassman points out: "Four dealers are predicting a $1+ Trillion buy program." It is good to finally know what the bogey is.

It seems like it was yesterday that Bill Gross was bemoaning the sad American state of a QE2 driven affairs. Oh wait, it was. Yet less than 24 hours later, courtesy of some dealer insight into the market we realize that it is precisely this same Bill Gross who is aggressively anticipating to profit specifically from the launch of QE2 in less than a week. To wit:

In the U.S., PIMCO still crushing the 10yr Volatility selling your amount of strangles, they are now short about 200K TYZ0 strangles, various strikes including and inbetween 124P and 129C.....

Good of Bill to hand out indulgences with one hand, and to wave bonds in (sell vol) with the other.

Make your choice ...

It appears not everything is dead and buried in the Gulf of Mexico. Halliburon shares are now plunging on a Bloomberg report which finds that the cement Halliburton Co. recommended to seal BP Plc’s Macondo well was unstable in tests and may have contributed to the April 20 blowout, the staff of a national commission investigating the accident said. HAL down 3.7% at last check.

Advocates claim that passage of Proposition 19 would solve the state’s budget crisis, as it would bring in tens of billions of dollars of tax revenue while cutting the cost of our prison budget by billions more. Be careful what you wish for. Today, the industry for alcoholic spirits is dominated by a handful of globally integrated marketing giants running volume driven businesses on razor thin margins, like Anheuser Bush (BUD) and Diageo (DEO). State tax revenues from this will be miniscule.

Pimpco has slashed their holding of US Government bonds from 63% of the fund in June to 33% in September and now, finally, Mr. Gross is telling all the suckers he dumped his paper onto over the past 3 months that the party is over in the bond market. Why would he do this? Well, aside from being an evil, manipulative, amoral bastard - it makes good business sense.

Today's $29 billion 7 year auction closed at a high yield of 1.97%, which following suit recent 2 and 5 Year auctions was an increase in the stop out yield. Still, it was the second lowest recorded since the reintroduction of the 7 Year in February 2009. More interestingly, the Bid To Cover came at a record high of 3.06 compared to 3.04 previously and 2.84 average in the prior year. This means the belly of the Treasury curve continues to be very well bid, although with the majority benefit of the Primary Dealers. PDs took down 50.22% of the auction (compared to a 50.34% average), leaving 10.9% to directs, and 38.88% for Indirects. This was an increase in the Indirect take down from 36.4% previously, and ends the decline in Indirect bids seen previously in the 2 and 5 year, confirming that even foreigners continue to seek yield above all. Bottom line: with QE2 around the corner, there is no shortage of demand for paper.