Archive - Nov 2010

November 30th

Without Much Fanfare, The HSKAX Is Back To August 2007 "Quant Implosion" Levels

While everyone knows that it was two and a half decades of imbecilic monetary policy courtesy of the Monstro [sic] that caused the credit bubble, few things were as much of a direct proximal cause of the market crash as the August 2007 quant collapse. And few indices tracked the obliteration of the M/N quant landscape that followed as well as the HSKAX (below). Well, after two years of painful grinding (for the market neutrals), the HSKAX is back to the same level to which it plunged in that week in early August 2007. What does it mean? Who knows, suffice to say that the market not only stopped working when the quants were all briefly destroyed back in 2007, but it marked the all time high in the S&P. We are now back to those same levels.Only this time instead ot the Market Neutrals providing the traditional market liquidity it is the HFTs, the NYSE DMMs, and the New York Fed. What happens next is anyone's guess.

Following Wikileaks Revelations, The Tricky Dick Rushes To The Rescue, Sees Bank of America Worth $21 In Bankruptcy

This is certifiably one of those days when the insanity refuses to end. The latest laugh out loud episode come from the lunatic who has outstayed his "analytic" welcome by about 2 years following his Buy recommendation on a soon to be bankrupt Lehman Brothers (sorry Dick, nobody will ever let it go): The Rochdale analyst, continues to reprise the role of the evil grandpa-in-law who just. refuses. to. leave. even though it is about 12 hours past his credibility-time, now sees Bank of America as worth $21 in bankruptcy. You really can't make this shit up. To wit: from a very funny Dick: "In death, this company would be worth 91% more than it is worth in life." You may laugh now.

Interpol Issues International Arrest Warrant For Julian Assange For "Sex Crimes"

Per, Interpol has just issued an international arrest warrant for Julian Assange. The offense listed: SEX CRIMES. And somehow Interpol does not have access to the Internet and is unable to pull an image of the wanted criminal. Unclear if Ben Bernanke will follow suit in the same Sex Crime category for repeated involuntary fornication with the world's middle class. In other news, we are now taking odds on a dramatic, globally televized slow speed chase on a California highway in Julian Assange's future?

A Perfectly Stable Market? 18,209 "Mini Crashes" In The Past 5 Years Claim Otherwise

There was a time when the SEC at least tried to pretend the market is safe and efficient for investors. That was before Reg NMS, ATS and who knows what other mandated changes to market structure made a once stable marketplace into a labyrinth of fragmented sub-markets, exchanges, ATS, OTC venues and dark pools, where flash crashes, sub-pennying, HFT scalper algos, feedback loop generating synthetic CDOs aka ETFs, bank internalization and rampant outright fraud made the market into a sad and pale imitation of what it used to be. Of all this, May 6 was merely the culminating point. It is no wonder that since the first of many Flash Crashes investors have pulled money in 29 consecutive weeks: the message is all too clear - the retail participant has left the building...and the market. And to put the final nail in the coffin of investor confidence, we present the following detailed analysis from Nanex, which proves that in the past 5 years trading is nothing short of a travesty. The market analysis firm has conducted the definitive exchaustive analysis of "mini crashes" and has found a whopping 18,209 events of either mini melt downs ot melt ups. We hope Mary Schapiro reads this report and provides us with a refutation of either the analysis or the conclusion. We will gladly provide her the venue she so desperately needs to address an infinitely skeptical public that she has anything under control at this point.

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Earlier this year, I noted that the European debt crisis was mimicking the US’s 2008 banking crisis almost to a T. Greece was the “Bear Stearns” issue: a minor player that was swallowed up in the drive to maintain the appearance of stability.

Then came the $1 trillion bailout, the equivalent of the Fannie/ Freddie “blank check”: a massive sum of money thrown at a problem meant to convey the illusion that the powers that be have everything under control and that systemic risk is non-existent.

US Mint Sells Record 4.2 Million American Eagle Silver Coins In November

In what is becoming a very sad development, the more money (pardon, monetary base) Bernanke prints, the more silver coins Americans buy. According to the US Mint, November sales of silver just hit 4.16 million ounces or coins, an all time record, since the introduction of the coin in 1986, and that does not even include the last day of the month. The number is roughly a 30% increase to the 3.15 million one-ounce Eagles sold in October, and well above the previous 2010 record of 3.6 million sold in May. So far in 2010, the mint has sold 32.8 million ounces of silver, higher than the previous full year record of 29 million coins set in 2009.

Vitaliy Katsenelson's picture

There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen. … the bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil.

Frederic Bastiat (1801-1850)

S&P Places Portugal On Watch Negative, May Cut A- Rating

This is getting ridonculous: "On Nov. 30, 2010, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services placed its 'A-' long-term and 'A-2' short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Portugal on CreditWatch with negative implications. The transfer and convertibility assessment remains 'AAA'." The only that matters: what does Dagong say. Our clown rating agencies are way overdue for retirement watch imminent. If the market is totally retarded, we guess the EURUSD may be whacked on this news.

China Approves Fund That Will Invest In Foreign Gold ETFs, Opening Avenue For Millions Of Mainland Investors

And here is the catalyst: China has approved a fund that will invest in gold exchange-traded funds outside the country, opening the door to mainland China investors who face negative real interest rates on their bank deposits and want to hedge against inflation. Beijing-based Lion Fund Management Co. said they received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on Monday to proceed with the fund. Next stop: gold much higher as the bubble mania is really unleased in such ETFs as GLD, UGL and PHYS.

S&P Relishes In Its Irrelevance, Says "At The Current Time, France Deserves Its AAA Rating"

The escalating series of simply tragicomic news out of Europe continues. Per Reuters, "France deserves its "AAA" credit rating at the current time, the president of Standard & Poor's credit agency told a French business daily on Tuesday. "At the current time, France deserves its AAA rating," newspaper Les Echos quoted Deven Sharma as saying in an advance edition due for publication on Wednesday." As we suggested earlier, France will not be downgraded by Moody's before 2014. That means S&P will last until  France is rebranded the German Vassal Kingdom of Gaul before it notches the country even one rating lower.