Archive - Nov 19, 2010

• Asian stocks advance for second day on US economic data, Ireland hopes.
• Bernanke takes defense of monetary stimulus abroad, turns tables on China.
• South Korea to reimpose tax on bonds; first of a possible raft of capital control measures.
• Spain sells €3.7B of bonds yielding less than secondary market.
• Treasuries hold gains as Bernanke says job losses may curb economic growth.
• Air China to buy $4.49B worth of aircraft from Airbus at a discount.
• Arthur J. Gallagher announced acquisition of Behnke & Co. Terms undisclosed.

As we speculated yesterday, China has picked the least impactful of all evils, and instead going thru with a rate hike (or the impossible currency revaluation which will never happen as long as the US keeps calling for it) the PBoC has again opted for a RRR hike, which as of Nov. 29 will be at 18%, and have virtually no impact on anything. But at least in a world of posturing, China now has the ability to respond to criticism that it does nothing about its liquidity situation. At this rate the RRR may hit 25% or higher, before the CNYUSD trading range is further expanded or there is any move on the interest rate. Lastly, as the disclosed inflation number comes straight from the propaganda czar at the politburo, we expect to see a below expectations print next month so that China can claim all is well again.

Once again we are left scratching our heads how a market trading near its year highs can constitute a "market condition" out for an IPO, but that's precisely what happened to mega LBO Harrah's which as of this morning is no longer going private. Of course, the only market condition involved is not having Getco as your DMM, which is willing to bid up all shares below a certain threshold, only to subsequently go ahead and cell to Citadel in dark pools. Where those shares go afterwards, only Brian Sack knows. The biggest loser however in today's fiasco is John Paulson who is now stuck with holding $710 million of equity in a company that may or may not be viable post the tens of dividend recap deals that are sure to follow the failed IPO.

Steve Wozniack, Apple's cofounder, was actually quite accurate in his rather stark admission that Android will overcome Apple in the mobile phone market just as Windows overcame Apple. Lest anyone forget, Bill Gates and crew nearly put Apple out of business due to margin compression and the commoditization of Apple's high end - and eventually overpriced products. Android is doing the same, simply on a very compressed time horizon.

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX – 19/11/10

Retail traders are notoriously wrong at picking market direction/tops and bottoms. Most retail traders very naturally seem to adopt a counter-trend stance and this offers very accurate signals for individuals looking to trade against this group. This daily report is designed to help traders focus their efforts on higher probability pairs.

WARNING: It is strongly recommended that you do not watch this clip after, during or before the consumption of food or beverage!

BOTTOM LINE: Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers a) a strong defense of the Fed’s renewed monetary easing, b) a fairly explicit endorsement of near-term fiscal expansion (coupled with longer-term consolidation) in the United States, and c) a fairly explicit plea to reduce current account imbalances via exchange rate appreciation in emerging market economies.