Archive - Nov 2010

An independent analysis of the grand slam Q3 earnings performance that was anticipated in full detail by BoomBustBlog, yet (and amazingly enough, as I attempt to wipe the sarcastic smirk off of my face) took the Street by surprise. Let the destructive creation commence!!!

"As the Fed seeks to blow up the global monetary system, I take comfort in the fact that gold cannot fight a currency war because it is not a currency. Gold is money. Currencies used to be backed by money until the global fiat system was introduced under President Nixon. Fiat currency can be printed at will until the economy collapses, as has happened many times in history. Money is impossible to devalue at the whim of politicians because it is naturally scarce. Even in the ruins of Europe after the Second World War, when there was no central authority and chaos reigned, an ounce of gold was worth what it always had been." - Peter Schiff

People like Jennifer Fan and pretty much everyone at JPM have no clue what the impact of $87.50 oil is on their limo drivers and thus they can make idiotic predictions like that AND get paid for it. There simply is not enough money in the World to support $100 oil.

As of 11 am the last QE Lite POMO ended, resulting in a resumption in a sell off in risk right on schedule, as even today's $6.3 billion in monetized notes due between 2016 and 2020 is insufficient to keep stocks higher with a jumping dollar. The submitted to accepted ratio was 4.38, up from 3.49 previously. The market is now looking to November 10 when the brand new, and much larger QE2 POMO schedule is announced by the FRBNY.

Market-neutrals are deleveraging at a rapid pace breaching the 50-ma on Friday. Is this indicative of a market drop in the coming days as market liquidity is disappearing and no one is trading?

Today's fraudclosure (remember that?) court ruling of the day comes once again from Florida, where in the case of Merrill Lynch Credit Corp vs Karin Lenz (Southern Florida case 09-60633) courtesy of yet another massive fumbled mortgage note discovery process, Judge Marcia Cooke has found that Merrill was not allowed to foreclose on a property that had an IRS tax lien on it, that a tax lien is found to have priority over a mortgage, and that in a nutshell the (presumed) mortgage servicer does not have standing to foreclose when the IRS is involved and demands its pound of flesh. This will be the latest cog rammed right up the wheels of the foreclosure process, as another hundred thousand or so mortgage will now likely be derailed as the IRS seeks to recoup tax revenues in a way that implicitly impairs banks, and further delay  foreclosures, now that there is affirmative case law precedent.

The NFL is the nation's premiere sports league by far, but there's room for improvement through better incentives with regard to draft position, team ownership, and the sharing of television/merchandize revenues

There were few surprises in today's commentary by Ron Paul on QE2: the only man in Congress (with Grayson now gone) who is sufficiently intelligent to realize that the primary culprit behind the US economy's boom-bust cycle is the Federal Reserve, continues to press for the termination of Ben Bernanke's public "service" which has resulted in a collapse in American purchasing power in the 100 years since the first Jekyll Island meeting. Yet Paul takes a 'John Lennon' approach to the problem, believing that active intervention may not even be needed, as the Fed ends up cannibalizing itself: "I think the Fed will self-destruct. People will desert the dollar. I think the Chinese are hinting that already. They are not wanting our dollars as much as raw materials. This is a deeply flawed monetary system. Here we have a small group of people who can create $600 billion with the stroke of a pen... I don't know where people are coming from to think that this can work. What really astounds me me is how tolerant the people are, the people in Congress and the financial market, where did this authority come from? Now somebody outside of the government can spend trillions of dollars and not think anything about it. It doesn't work, it's a failure. And next year it will be more. Bernanke is very clear on what he is going to do - he is going to create money until he gets economic growth and there is no evidence to show that just creating money causes economic growth." All logical and expected. Which is why nobody will endorse the Paul stance, it as it means an end to the trillion dollar wealth transfer system from the middle class to the kleptocracy.

In the last segment of the "Conspiracy Theory" TV show, Jesse Ventura, former Minnesota governor, takes on the boys at Goldman Sachs. As he leaves the room, he tells them, "And I'll keep fighting for the little guy and kick your asses." Enough said. Rock on Jesse.

Not even a week has passed since it was disclosed that FrontPoint was one of the main funds benefitting from a biotech insider trading scandal (for another possible beneficiary, see here), and the former Morgan Stanley fund is on the ropes, battling for its survival: the reason, per Reuters, is that LPs have decided to pull half the fund's assets, roughly $750 million. Which means that as the fund struggles to liquidate holdings, many of which in less than liquid names which will likely need to be internalized by investment bank prime brokers, various biotech stocks are about to see some notable selling pressure. One wonders why Morgan Stanley was rushing to spin off the soon to be defunct asset manager...

Given that interest rates are already quite depressed, Bernanke seems to be grasping at straws in justifying QE2 on the basis further slight reductions in yields. As for Bernanke's case for creating wealth effects via the stock market, one might look at this logic and conclude that while it may or may not be valid, the argument is at least the subject of reasonable debate. But that would not be true. Rather, these are undoubtedly among the most ignorant remarks ever made by a central banker. - John Hussman

• Germany Attacks US Economic Policy (FT)
• Forget left and right. The real divide is technocrats versus populists (Reuters)
• China Is `Available' to Support Portugal Through Financial Crisis, Hu Says (Bloomberg), they also better be available to support Ireland, Spain, Italy, Greece, and all those other bankrupt European countries
• Hatzius is now bullish: Goldman Says Bernanke Engineers `Substantial Pickup' (Bloomberg), he will be even more bullish when QE2 is expanded to $4 trillion
• BofA May Pay Bonuses in Stock as Deadline Looms on Capital Gap (Bloomberg), unclear if it will throw in toxic MBS as part of compensation
• Citigroup debt funds probed by SEC (Reuters)
• Andy Xie: To Hell Through QE (China Int'l Business)

• CEOs most optimistic on US profits since 1999 in bull signal for S&P 500: Bloomberg.
• China is 'available' to support Portugal through financial crisis, Hu says.
• China's trade surplus likely rebounded in October after narrowing in September.
• ECB rejects request for files on Greek derivative use, cites 'acute' risks.
• Euro falls as concern over Irish bond sales, Greece damps investor demand.
• G-20 conflict risk eases as US says current-account targets unrealistic.
• Oil extends longest rally since April as US jobs report beats forecasts.
• World Bank Chief: G20 should consider adopting a global reserve currency based on gold as part of structural reforms.
• World Bank’s IFC plans to offer benchmark debt in US dollars.
• AIG hopes to complete its government exit before year end. Posts $2.4B loss in Q3.

Three Fed speeches and the quarterly survey of senior bank lending officers. Last QE-lite POMO closes at 11 am.

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 08/11/10