Archive - Jan 2010

The SPX is going to plunge 10-20%, Treasury bond interest rates are going to soar (TBT), and gold (GLD) has peaked out. Then brace yourself for the Big One in 2013. (SPX), (TBT), (GLD), (FXA), (UNG), (WHEAT), (CORN), (SOYBEANS)

• Samuelson: China's $2.4 trillion global grip (RCM)
• Game over Tishman Speyer: look for CRE CMBS numbers to plunge next month (Bloomberg, WSJ)
• More Bernanke-fail threats for the peasantry: fire and brimstone, Geithner edition (Politico)
• Obama's bank plan could level high-frequency field (Reuters)
• UBS tax ruling by Swiss court may prompt new U.S. legal battle (Bloomberg)
• Goldman to cap London partners' compensation at 1 million pounds (Bloomberg)

• Asian stocks fall for sixth day on Obama plan to curb banks, Yen weakens.
• Bank of Japan said to be open to expanding Emergency loans, bond purchases.
• China property data may 'under-represent’ bubble risks, World Bank says.
• German consumer confidence declined for a fourth month in a row.
• Gold futures climbed as much as $10/oz on weak USD.
• Nymex crude oil futures slightly higher at $74/bbl helped by a weaker U.S. dollar.

Update: The book has now closed for European Orders at €23 Billion in orders

• Greece 5yr €uro Benchmark – Books > €11bn/Spread revised
• Issuer: The Hellenic Republic A2 neg/ BBB+ neg/ BBB+ neg RegS / 144A
• Amount: €uro Benchmark Cpn: tbc % ann, act/act
• Settlement: t+5 (tbc) Maturity: 20 August 2015 (5 years)
• PriceGuide: MidSwaps + 350/365bps ****
• Leads: CS, DB, Eurobank EFG, GS, MS & NBG + coleads B&D: DB (duration manager) Timing:
• Books open, pricing no later than mid week

The difference between the world when Volcker was Fed chairman and today is the end of Glass Steagall. Instead of bailing out simple lenders, the Fed now faces the task of managing and saving giant securities and securitization platforms that are too big to manage in a rational fashion. Don't fool yourself into thinking that JPM chief Jamie Dimon or any CEO of a TBTF bank has the slightest idea what is really happening within their enterprise.

RANsquawk 25th January Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

The timing and haste of the newly proposed Volcker Rule by Obama has drawn criticism that this is simply a transparent attempt at populism in light of the Dems Massachusetts defeat. Moreover, it certainly does not address the more dire issue of the Middle America – jobs.

We are often accused of being paranoid here at Zero Hedge, generally by our many detractors. Occupational hazard, we suppose. So when we pen missives wondering about the use of "National Security" exceptions to SEC disclosure and filing requirements for public companies, we tend to get a lot of smug "you're crazy" correspondence. Then a little time passes, and someone like Reuters writes an article.

Bankers are destroying Capitalism. Unfortunately, most Westerners won’t realize this until five years from now, when the middle class has been forcibly relegated to the ranks of the poor. And this isn’t just a situation that will afflict America but it will likely afflict Japan and many countries in the EU such as the UK, Spain, and Greece just to name a few.

Whenever I read that pension fund consultants are "being inundated with requests," my antennas go up, as does the hair behind my neck!

In response to the earlier post on Treasury's supply/demand imbalance, a keen reader shares the following insight:"if there are ~16t usd assets in banking per the article and ~1% are in treasuries today that means 9% conversion of assets to treasuries remains....the banks are woefully undercapitalized. 9% of 16t is 1.44t so the banks can't meet the 10% requirement although some will get close....my concern is that the 1t usd sitting in the fed may already be in treasuries and that it is not truly cash - frn...." That would be very ungood.

Make no mistake about it, investors remain poorly positioned to weather a sell off.

A milestone in Bernanke’s nomination was reached this morning …. the Sunday political talk shows. John McCain came out this morning against Bernanke. So here’s what we know. As of this morning (noon CT, January 24) … Bernanke needs 60 votes to end a filibuster of his nomination (known as cloture). After cloture, he then needs 51 to be reappointed. So, the bogey is 60 for cloture.

Rentech's RIEF investors can't be too happy. After underperforming the S&P by about 30%, and seeing AUM in the once fabled quant fund evaporate, they now have to contend with disclosure that there is "no assurance that trading of the Medallion Funds may will not have a negative effect on the trading of RIEF." Luckily for a now-retired Jim Simons (speaking of, what non-extradition countries has the billionaire code-breaker taken to vacationing in these days?), those same RIEF investors sure do seem to have a lot of patience.

I have never voted Against the Democrats in my life, BUT I WILL THIS TIME just like the people of Mass. did last week.

Its your time to stick up for the people of New York State and this country we call home. I will be watching to see what you do for us.

The people of America are to the breaking point and if we snap how long do you think Citi, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo will last if everybody stops paying ther Morgages and Credit Cards.