Archive - Feb 14, 2010

asiablues's picture

Offshore Oil The Warren Buffett Way





While the markets are in a finicky mood from the China and Greek factors, the rising rig count and producer's capital budget suggests that oil service markets are probably in the process of bottoming this year. Current trend of Offshore & subsea bodes well for oil infrastructure services companies that even Warren Buffett will concur.

 

Bruce Krasting's picture

Mankiw on Goldilocks Debt - Phooey!





Greg Mankiw is talking debt again. He tries to say that the Obama budget is over the top. But he defends a "just right" policy of perpetual deficits. The markets are not going to let that fly. Not in 2010. Greg also blows smoke in our direction about how "good" things were when he was running the show.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Muni Time Bomb Is Set As Harrisburg Contemplates A March 1 Chapter 9 Filing





A week ago we asked whether Harrisburg is a "doomed city." Today, the city itself answered the question, after passing a 2010 budget which excludes debt payments. In essence, the city anticipates defaulting. The catalyst will be a $2 million missed interest payment on an incinerator due March 1. As Reuters points out laconically, this is "a rarity for
a municipal bond issuer." The outcome: official muni default. "Asked whether the city may file Chapter 9 bankruptcy as a way
to get its debts under control, [City controller] Miller said that was a
"possibility
."Will this be the catalyst that sets the muni bond market ablaze? Remember that March is when Quantitative Easing officially ends. And everyone knows what is happening in Europe. Will the next 20 days set the preamble for the next major leg down in the ongoing Great Recession?

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Commitment Of Traders Report: Record Euro Shorts





The CFTC's Commitment Of Traders report indicated that a record number of short positions were established in the EUR, confirming the decidedly dour investor mood for Europe. At -57,152 net EUR short positions hit a record, after "increasing" by -13,411 and it appears that the GBP will soon follow in the record negative sentiment category. The cable saw 19,314 net new short positions added, bringing the total to -57,549. The GDP record is at -65,346 reached last October. Furthermore, all other pairs saw a net contract decline, including the AUD, CAD, CHF, MXN and NZD. In the "preferred" camp, only the JPY saw net positive contracts of 22,396, an increase of over 15k from the prior week. As a result aggregate USD positioning in nominal terms increased by $4.14 billion to $8.37 billion. The EUR-hate regime is now decidedly here. On the other hand, the EUR is substantially oversold and a technical bounce is to be expected, absent some horrendous news out of the EMU in the next 24 hours.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

A Former Cephalopod Explains The Transaction Tax





Pointless debate after pointless debate... Let the confusion end. It is very ironic and highly appropriate that a formerly tentacular Davy Jones, currently Bill Nighy, sets the record straight on the 0.05% transaction tax, which just like the AIG debacle, would "surely" lead to the obliteration of intelligent (and banker) life as we know it.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

All You Ever Wanted To Know About The Current Sovereign CDS Market But Were Afraid To Ask: The CDS-Bond Basis, CDS Curve Flattening, Volatility Skews And More





Now that sovereign CDS traders are about to reprise the role of Jason Bourne, and be hunted by international intelligence agencies just because under the not so wise advice of their prime brokers and preferred CDS salespeople, they dared to buy a minimum amount of $5 million in 5 year CDS of [Spain|Portugal|Greece], it is worthwhile to expose this sovereign CDS "thingy" once and for all. The following BofA research report will introduce not only the basics, but get into some of the more arcane concepts for those who feel that the need to roundhouse Spanish intelligence officers is about to reach boiling point (call it 30-bp spread induced synesthesia).

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Suspicious Timing Surrounding The "De-risking" of AIG's Toxic Obligations





Because everything unraveled so quickly, no one scrutinized Standard & Poor's flip-flop on AIG. On Friday, September 12, 2008, S&P said it would, "continue discussions with the company over the coming weeks regarding liquidity and capital plans. Once we have more clarity on these issues, we could affirm the current ratings on the holding company and operating companies or lower them by one to three notches." Of course, that never happened. S&P did not wait, and issued a downgrade the following Monday. It had at least one conversation with AIG that day, when only two things were clear: Nothing at AIG was settled, and the contagion effect from the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy was huge. The discussions could not have been especially detailed, since AIG's financial staff was preoccupied in its negotiations with Hank Paulson's deputy, Dan Jester, Goldman and JPMorgan Chase, who ostensibly were trying to put together a bank deal that would address S&P's concerns.

 

Leo Kolivakis's picture

Greek Fiscal Crisis to Neoliberal Oligarchy?





An informed view on the Greek fiscal crisis and a brilliant interview with Michael Hudson which exposes the reality on the global financial system and explains why we are sinking back into a new feudalism.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Sovereign Default Update: Spanish Intelligence Agency Is Probing CDS/FX Speculators





Spanish National Intelligence Agency (CNI) is investigating whether the Spanish economy and the euro have fallen victim to a concerted attack by speculators and foreign media (El Pais)

Wall Street helped mask debts shaking Europe (NYT)

Γερμανογαλλικ? εγγ?ηση στα ελληνικ? ομ?λογα – Πως θα κινηθε? το ΧΑ - Here's to hope for another €5 billion Greek bond deal - the question: will it be guaranteed by Germany/France (B(T)ankingNews.gr)

Majority of Germans want Greece expelled from the euro zone(Reuters)

Dubai stocks plunge after disclosure Dubai World to pay 60 cents on dollar (Bloomberg)

European finance ministers meet to discuss week ahead (Economist)

Greek FinMin unveils tax reform, wage policy, outlawing of cash: "From 1. Jan. 2011, every transaction above 1,500 euros
between natural persons and businesses, or between businesses,
will not be considered legal if it is done in cash. Transactions
will have to be done through debit or credit cards" (Reuters)

Greek Britain? (BBC)

Greek saga won't kill the euro but the end may begin here (Telegraph)

 

 

 
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