Archive - Feb 2010

Frequent Zero Hedge readers will, of course, be aware that we take a keen interest in the ongoing state of "financial journalism."  Suffice it to say that the ups and downs of the more mainstream players in the field are indicators that command, if not rabid attention, our regular interest, or even amusement.  In this context, the sort of intuitively obvious relationship between, say, CNBC's Nielsen ratings and a 30 day moving average of the VIX, never disappoints when given visual expression.

A few weeks ago, we noted the potential for an oversold bounce despite what appeared to be a clear shift in the investment landscape. Now that most major equity indices have rallied for two consecutive weeks (with the S&P 500 stalling at a 50 DMA which looks to be rolling over), it is critical to assess the underlying strength of this move. Suffice it to say, that the evidence is mixed at best. Many of our immediate term commodity and commodity currency models have moved back into “buy” territory, but we view Dollar Strength as a BIG RED DEFLATIONARY FLAG.

• Yields 2.229% vs. Exp. 2.195%, bond was trading at 2.164% just before 1 PM auction
• Bid To Cover 2.45 vs. Avg. 1.89 (Prev. 2.27)
• Indirects 42.40% vs. Avg. 45.28% (Prev. 47.45%)
• Indirect Hit Ratio of 88.05%
• Allotted at high 66.57% - large number on the margin
• Direct bidder take down 6.4%

In a speech before the UK Treasury Select Committee the Chairman of Goldman Sachs Bank, Gerald Corrigan, who also happens to be a former New York Fed President (and people still wonder where Tim Geithner will end up) noted that it is not Goldman who is at fault in the whole Greek swap fiasco but Eurostat, "which was consulted on the transaction at the time it was entered into and which offered no objection." What is troubling is Corrigan's revelation that "Goldman Sachs was by no means the only bank involved with countries
in these types of transactions...These transactions were not limited to
Goldman Sachs and Greece." Just whose debt numbers will be put under the microscope next?

Don't look for anything new here: lots of optimism, lots of Okun's law references, and a whole lot of dovishness and "this time we know what we are doing."

Not much commentary possible (or needed) here, really has to be seen to be believed. Surely Mrs. Harbinger must have had some of her husband's business acumen rub off on her (and on her fashion taste) if she invests in such surefire blockbusters as Mariah Carey films. One thing is certain - the former Spanish Harlem resident of "welfare background" certainly has no problem with gravity or with grammar, as witnessed by the following quote "For my life I think my purpose is to actually help children with Leukemia, or whatever my movies are gonna be about, they are pretty much gonna help the children, involved in the same type of situation of, of, of, the based of..." (mic pulled).

RANsquawk 22nd February US Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

Reuters reports that hopes of a Nakheel pay down in whole or in part are getting increasingly illusory. The $980 million Nakheel issue maturing on May 13, which had initially been rumored to be paid off in full (at about the time PIMCO was selling it after buying it up in the sub 50 cent range), then at 60, now seems will not get any consideration at all. Reuters quotes a source as saying "It is very unlikely that the bond will be paid off. Incredibly unlikely." Of course, now that M&A rumors don't exist per se, as it is all really just SEC-endorsed insider trading, the rumor mongering has focused on Dubai and Greece, which leads us to believe that this is simply some Nakheel short talking up (or down, as the case may be) their book.

Full press release from Goldman Sachs giving the company's perspective on the recent topic du jour about its arrangement of numerous Greek currency swaps. One wonders why pour more gas on the pr nightmare fire, if indeed everything was according to the books. One also wonders just how many of the "European member states with foreign debt outstanding" that performed comparable transactions will be presented as a shocker to Eurostat, which at last check was only 7 years behind the curve.

Following the money - taxpayers give money to BofA to keep it alive, BofA pays SEC/shareholders in revised wrist slap. Sure seems like one way to keep keep the velocity of money above 1. One hopes that Cuomo won't follow next and throw in the towel in his civil suit against Ken Lewis. A seemingly unhappy with this outcome Rakoff had this to say: "So should the court approve the proposed settlement as being fair, reasonable, adequate and in the public interest? If the court were deciding that question sole on the merits - de novo, as the lawyers say - the court would reject the settlement as inadequate and misguided. But as both parties never hesitate to remind the court, the law requires the court to give substantial deference to the SEC as a regulatory body having primary responsibility for policing the securities markets, especially with respect to matter of transparency." We have gotten to the point where the SEC's cronyism is even impairing the judicial system.

Dax futures have bounce to our 5,740/5,725 target zone. This corresponds to the 100dma, formerly key support and now resistance, the highs of Jan 22 and Feb 3 and the 50% retracement of the sell-off from the tops. If the Jan 11 highs are indeed a major intermediate top, the market should hold resistance here and trade down to test 5,626/5,600, which if broken will confirm further downside towards 5,300, 5,040, and finally 4,570/4,590 which is next major support. On the upside we would use a daily close above 5,780 as a stop. Major focus will be on 5,626/5,600 in the short-term. - Nic Lenoir

As we noted in Friday’s Comments, some traders thought the surprise Discount Rate hike by the Fed may have been a pre-emptive strike at inflation expectations and the bond vigilantes. The Fed has said over and over again that inflation “expectations” are a primary concern of theirs. By the time actual inflation breaks out, the Fed would be behind the curve, so it is expectations they monitor. Thursday morning the PPI spiked sharply. That, some thought, may have inspired the surprising Discount Rate hike in the late afternoon. If so, the Fed might have fired too soon. Friday morning, the CPI was downright deflationary. The core CPI fell 0.1%. The last time we had a negative reading in the core CPI was way back in 1982. That’s 28 years ago. And, that was when Paul Volcker had interest rates at double digits trying to drive inflation out of the system. Traders speculated that the jump in PPI and the dip in CPI might be a function of management. Companies could be absorbing the higher prices in raw materials (global demand); to keep finished products lower for their clients. It’s an interesting hypothesis. - Art Cashin

The following chart from Stateline will be quite critical to evaluate going forward as states increasingly ponder just how to tweak their revenue formulas in order to not only get away from the precipice of insolvency, but to pay back the tens of billions borrowed from the Federal government to fund unemployment pay.

Thank goodness the SEC doesn't care about pursuing, well, anything, as its 1-man enforcement team would be horribly torn in trying to find just who the leaks, and the various benefactors, in the ongoing barrage of Greek realted, totally unjustified rumor mongering are. Earlier today European Commission spokesperson for economic and monetary affairs
Amadeu Altafaj Tardio stated "there is no Eurozone plan to bail out Greece" refuting a story that appeared over the weekend in Der Spiegel, claiming a €25 billion fund to bailout Greece was in the making. Furthermore, he noted that Eurostat, which has requested details on all swap agreements done by Greece over the past decade or so, has not gotten all the needed information, due to, wait for it, a 4 day strike at the Greek finance ministry.

We’re about to find out who has been swimming without a suit. TALF is expiring, sucking another $1.5 trillion out of the system. One of the steepest yield curves in history is about to become a lot steeper. The face of Half Dome comes to mind. A short in 30 year Treasury bonds will be THE great trade of 2010. Failed Treasury auction here we come.