Archive - Feb 2010

• Greece loses EU voting power in blow to sovereignty (Telegraph)
• Goldman Sachs didn't disclose swap, investors "fooled" (Bloomberg)
• BofE rate setters voted 9-0 to halt QE (Telegraph)
• Deja vu: Dubai World said to present restructuring plan in March... 2010 or 2999? (Bloomberg)
• Walgreen to buy Duane Reade for $1 billion (Reuters)
• UK unemployment jumps to highest since 1987 (Bloomberg)

The Spanish 15 year €5 year bonds whose auction all of Europe is watching closely, will price today at a 12 basis point premium to where existing 15 year bonds trade. The book has closed with €12 billion worth of orders. The sale was managed by BBVA, Credit Agricole, HSBC, Banco Santander and Soc Gen. Last week Portugal priced a 10 year issue at 20 bps over existing debt, and 140 bps over midswaps. The issue has since tightened by 17 basis points to 123.

Spain currently has an unemployment rate of nearly 20% and saw its GDP contract 0.1% in Q4, declining 3.1% in 2009.

• Asian stocks, currencies rally on improved earnings, global growth outlook.
• China cuts US Treasury holdings by most (-4.3%) in decade; Japan buys more debt.
• Hong Kong Exchange expects more IPOs from overseas to tap China investors.
• Japan's Service demand fell 0.9% in December, biggest slide in nine months.
• Oil trades above $77 after advancing as Euro strengthens against Dollar.
• Treasuries decline on speculation US Housing, Production rose last month.
• Treasury says new loans by 11 TARP banks rose 13% in December.
• U.K. unemployment claims jump to highest since 1997.

RANsquawk 17th February Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

To be fair, this article could just as easily have been called “Waking a Zombie World”. While various people and governments point to the USA as the bad actor in this mess, in fact it has taken dozens of nations to form this conga line to hell and the rest of the world is far from blameless. Nor is America the sole residence of the world’s zombie population.

RANsquawk 17th February Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse- Toyota is considering yet another recall as it probes Corolla steering problems, amid a myriad or other woes. Oh, and Toyota President, Mr. Toyoda... He's not attending the Congressional hearing to be held in his company's honor on the 24th of the month.

Pending bond maturities due in 2010 are paving the way for the next wave of the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis - Supply, potentially in excess of demand, which portends higher yields and more onerous debt servicing at a time of record fiscal spending!
This is how the crisis will spread through western Europe...

They may resolve Greece, but not Portugal, Spain, or Italy. The US economy is heading for the “square root” scenario. Buy gold against sterling. US stocks are going nowhere. China, Brazil, Canada, Australia, and Indonesia are another story. The early players shorting Treasury bonds could get bled dry. The January crop report is a total game changer. An exclusive Hedge Fund Radio interview with trading legend Dennis Gartman. (CANADIAN DOLLAR), (AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR), (FXI), (EWZ), (EWC), (EWA), (CORN), (IDX), (FCX), (X)

Forget the claims and allegations that false flag terror - governments attacking people and then blaming others in order to create animosity towards those blamed - has been used throughout history.

This essay will solely discuss government ADMISSIONS to the use of false flag terror.

The U.S. economy ceased to function this week after unexpected existential remarks by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke shocked Americans into realizing that money is, in fact, just a meaningless and intangible social construct. What began as a routine report before the Senate Finance Committee Tuesday ended with Bernanke passionately disavowing the entire concept of currency, and negating in an instant the very foundation of the world's largest economy. "Though raising interest rates is unlikely at the moment, the Fed will of course act appropriately if we…if we…" said Bernanke, who then paused for a moment, looked down at his prepared statement, and shook his head in utter disbelief. "You know what? It doesn't matter. None of this—this so-called 'money'—really matters at all." "It's just an illusion," a wide-eyed Bernanke added as he removed bills from his wallet and slowly spread them out before him. "Just look at it: Meaningless pieces of paper with numbers printed on them. Worthless."

The topic that generates by far the greatest disagreement in the investment community, just after whether we will have inflation or deflation, is whether gold is cheap or expensive. And as much as gold is a speculative commodity, it does have roots in fundamental supply and demand. A good source in demystifying the fundamentals in the gold industry, The World Gold Council, has released its summary analysis of investment trends, and market and economic influences in the gold market in Q4 of 2009.

A statistics problem. One I would love to solve. Me and a few thousand other people. A big payoff if you do solve it. The question is, has some already figured this out?

The one index that just refused to correlate to the market, and the UMichigan Index, and the Confidence Board, was released today, and once again hit a 2010 low of -49. The index has been in a -48 to -49 range for the past five weeks. The primary reason for this week's drop was due to a 6 point decline in the personal finance component, from -6 to -12, the lowest reading since December 6, with not much change in the other two readings: National Economy and Buying Conditions. It is somewhat confounding that this index persistently "refuses" to go up with all the other self-reinforcing confidence indices out there.Maybe this is the reason: from the report "Eighty-eight percent think that the economy, despite what economists say to the contrary, is still in a recession."

Love him or hate him, Putin sets the record straight. While the media's attention remains on the Greek fiscal crisis, the bigger debt crisis is in the US, and the world is starting to take notice.