Archive - Feb 2010

As reported earlier, some more CDS trader talk:

I m hearing and being asked from a few sources that the CDS markets in the sovereign (Greece, Dubai. Etc) nations are going to “banned “ from trading to avoid a BSC or LEH like collapse. I personally have no idea if there is any truth to the story  but it seems to be just going around in the last half hour. Obviously Greece is on the forefront of traders minds and I don’t know if a “ban” in trading this stuff is a good or bad for the markets  (trades seem to think would be a huge positive)…. But I would appreciate any insight.

Of course, the fact that the mechanics of this "ban" are so inconceivable as to make the rumor beyond ridiculous, is precisely why everyone is terrified it will be true. After all this is precisely the kind of galactic stupidity/insanity we have grown to expect out of the 3 neurons shared between Bernanke/Bair/Shapiro/Geithner.

"Koo’s theory and his prescriptions for what currently ails the world are as fascinating as they are unconventional. Considering the woeful track record of orthodox economists (across the entire spectrum from liberal to conservative) in
diagnosing, much less treating, the body economic as it has been wracked with credit ills, Koo’s fresh perspectives, grounded in the searing experience of Japan’s Great Recession, demand careful consideration." Kathryn Welling

Pop quiz: you are a Central Bank and everything is slipping out of control. What do you do? Correct answer - whatever you can, better known as market manipulation. The SNB just killed the CHFEUR. Every country is now on its own as it tries to kill its currency first. It puts the currency in the basket or it gets the revolutionary hose again.

For Greece, with on and off balance sheet liabilities at over 800%, it's game over. For the Eurozone, with the same ratio at about 500%, it is also game over. For the US, at 500%+, it is, you guessed it (sorry Joseph Stiglitz), game over, but since we have the printers, it will simply take a little longer. Following up on yesterday's popular post on prevailing delusions as captured by Albert Edwards' colleague Dylan Grice, we present Albert's latest outlook. Please don't read this if you want to keep believing there is any hope left for the (developed) world.

An announcement from European leaders of a commitment to assist Greece boosted the Euro and dinged the dollar. That in today’s Pavlovian world sent gold, oil and stocks higher. It was entertaining to watch pundits on TV trying to invent a stimulus or two for the rally. A couple even tried to attribute the rally in stocks to movement on financial reform.

Duh! What would make the Dow rise 100 points, gold jump $20 and oil to move up nearly a dollar? The answer fairly jumps off the page. It was the pullback in the dollar – er…..more directly, the dollar basket (DXY).

The relationship between the dollar and other assets is clearly evident by looking at the minute by minute charts. We presume the pundits look for other causation simply to fill up air time. - Art Cashin

RANsquawk 12th February US Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

Taubman's Q4 results were as to be expected, despite the rather upbeat spin that was attached to the announcement. This is essentially a barometer for the CRE industry...

Rumor: Nakheel may be going into administration. And an even ghastlier rumor: we are about to see an announcement restrictring all sovereign CDS trading. Time to reevaluate that "Dubai is contained" thesis. Just sayin'... Got Dubai CDS, bitches? Keep them while the government tells you to sell.

• Must read from the master: Lehman justice isn't blind, it's unconscious (Bloomberg)
  

  There’s been much talk the past two years about moral
  hazard, which is the risk that companies and their investors
  will behave more recklessly when they believe the government
  will bail them out. Less has been made of a similar hazard: The
  danger that powerful companies won’t follow the law when their
  executives believe the government won’t hold them to it. The latter risk threatens not only our economy, but our
  democracy. There’s every reason to believe both kinds are
  growing.

• China raises bank reserve requirement to cool economy (Bloomberg, Reuters)
• EU leaders deploy "Bazooka" to repel attack on Greece (Bloomberg)
• Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs, clicking in the votes? (Guardian)
• Evans-Pritchard: Will markets call EU bluff on Greek rescue? (Telegraph)
• Blackstone IPOs show barriers to returning fund cash (Bloomberg)
• Rise in retail sales brightens recovery picture (Reuters)
• Totally not out of leftfield post of the day: Steve "Busted IPO" Schwarzman: Lawmakers rush to punish banks threatens recovery (WaPo)

Brazil's BOVESPA and the Merc entered into a Memorandum of Understanding as Global Preferred Strategic Partners to jointly develop a new multi-asset class electronic trading platform, with capacity to process transactions in less than one millisecond for equities, derivatives, fixed income securities and other exchange-traded or OTC-traded assets. Based on technology derived from the CME Globex® trading system, this new platform will house all BVMF segments under the same infrastructure. [1] Cliffs Notes highlight of the press release in toto ~ [2] Daily & Weekly CME charts

Ready to invest in a country whose leaders have stolen $400 billion in the last decade and have seen 300 foreign workers kidnapped? Another country lost four wars in the last 40 years. Still interested? How about a country that suffers one of the world’s highest AIDs rates, endures regular insurrections where all of the westerners get massacred, and racked up 5 million dead in a continuous civil war? Then Africa is the place for you! (AFK), (GAF)

Perspectives on the the sovereign crisis and bond markets from Roubini, Malpass and some other talking heads. The ever optimistic David Malpass sees no fear of a failed bond auction. Roubini on the other hand, and quite logically, compares the European peripheral crisis with what is happening in California and all the other bankrupt US states. To which Malpass changes the subject to gold and jumps on our bandwagon which sees gold, not the dollar, as the ultimate fiat currency alternative. To be fair Malpass does say: "Europe is actually further down the line to a debt crisis than we are, but we are getting there very fast right now... The Federal government will have to decide how much to bail out California. That creates a lot of social tensions." Ironically, Liesman nails it: "Isn't the difference between Greece and the U.S. that the U.S. has a printing press and Greece doesn't. At some point it is no longer any good for Greece to be part of a union where it can't have any control over its monetary policy." The tide is again turning: isn't it time for Roubini to turn just a little bearish?

Compare and contrast the following headlines:

• Guardian: Angela Merkel dashes Greek hopes of rescue bid

and then,

• Bloomberg: Merkel Rallies EU on Greece, Fails to Convince Allies

Really nothing much to say here.

• Asian stocks rose on Friday, lifting the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to its first weekly gain in four.
• China inflation 'blip' masks price pressures from property, credit surge.
• China orders banks to set aside more deposits to cool the fastest-growing major economy.
• Euro declines for third day on concern Greece measures may not be enough.
• Eurozone economy grows by only 0.1 percent in 4Q 2009.
• Germany, others pledged “determined and coordinated action” to help Greece.

RANsquawk 12th February Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.