Archive - Feb 2010

• Majority of Germans wants D-Mark back (Frankfurter Allgemeine h/t Paul)
• Fed in talks with money market funds to help drain $1 trillion (Bloomberg)
• Jobless claims in US decrease more than anticipated (Bloomberg)
• Jobless suffer with corporate cash climbing to $1.9 trillion (Bloomberg)
• PIGS in rescue lipstick are uglier than default (Bloomberg)
• Greece: how the bond vigilantes left it in ruins (BusinessWeek)
• Stuyvesant Town ownership hinges on payment of $90 million (Bloomberg)

Time to recalibrate the FX/market correlating robots. Shockingly, the emerging wave of still unknown bailouts is finally starting to be perceived as euro weakness. The onlly logical "euro-strength" outcomeis if the IMF is once again dragged in, which in turn becomes dollar weakness.

Just in case you were mystified what "excess capacity" cheerleader #1 Jim O'Neill thinks of the world, be mystified no more. Spoiler alert: Jim uses the words "remarkable analytical mind" and "Alan Greenspan" in the same sentence. And with that out of the way, read on, and while you are at it, buy buy buy.

• Asian shares were higher Thursday, with China's more benign than feared inflation data.
• Australia job growth surges, unemployment rate falls; Aussie dollar strengthens.
• Bernanke says Federal Reserve may opt to raise discount rate 'before long'.
• China's January loans rises to $203B, property prices surge as banks extend more credit.
• EU to lay groundwork for Greek aid summit package in push to shield Euro.
• Health groups urge U.S. states to increase cigarette taxes by $1 a pack
• U.S. foreclosure filings rose 15% in January from a year earlier

South Korea (EWY) is the “K” that should be in “BRICK.” The country where the classic “V” shaped recovery is real. The international nuclear industry was blown away by Korea Electric Power’s $20.4 billion UAE deal. Speaking volumes about the direction of the global economy. South Korea takes a quantum leap ahead in the race for competitiveness, while the US falls further to the back in the dust. One small problem: the megalomaniac who lives next door with the starving million man army. Time for a visit to the Hermit Kingdom. (EWY)

The non-bailout bailout is here. Or is it? They really should have used Larry Summers. Van Rompuy says "determined and coordinated action if needed" will be provided. Uh, it is needed. But what is the deal? And what are the details? Greek 2s10s 40 bps steeper to +93 bps as 2 Year trades 56 bps lower to 4.97%.

RANsquawk 11th February Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

RANsquawk 11th February Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

Part II of three on Econophile's take on the economy for 2010: Debt, deleveraging, and residential and commercial real estate.

Millions of “pre-retirees” aged between 55 and 64 are being unrealistic about the size of their private pensions and living in a state of denial about their finances, experts say.

In a CNBC interview on Feb. 10, Marc Faber went out on a limb saying ALL governments will eventually default, including the United States. From all indications, this is a fairly plausible scenario.

The only thing in this world worse than Hank Paulson showing up in Congress with his initial 3-page TARP proposal giving him unlimited control over the US printing press? 12 non-Hank Paulsons, all of whom speak different languages, all of whom are hell bent on bailing everyone and everything out (just not on their political or physical dime...or 10 eurocents as the case may be), and all of whom have no idea how to bail out others' (and soon their own) economy... oh, and none of whom have access to Hank's reserve currency printer. In short, more than 24 hours after announcing a "bailout" of Greece, nobody in Europe has any idea what they need to do to actually "bail" Greece out. On the verge of tomorrow's summit during which it is widely expected that EU's new president
Herman Van Rompuy will announce just what the details of [asset guarantee|debt purchase|IMF (aka US Taxpayer) to the rescue] plan will be, the utter cluelessness and confusion is unprecedented.

U.S. lawmakers are toughening their stance on Iran’s energy industry with new economic penalties, but experts doubt the Islamic regime will pay much attention and is more likely to open the doors even wider to other players eager to replace fleeing investors.

January 2010 MKC Global Report

Yesterday we presented our views on why Europe's decision to tip over the first of the bailout dominoes will be inherently a catastrophic one in the long term, and will ultimately transfer the peripheral liquidity risk into funding, and ultimately, solvency (and once again, liquidity) risk to the very core. Today, Niall Ferguson joins in, in this latest Op-Ed in the Financial Times. "It began in Athens. It is spreading to Lisbon and Madrid. But it would be a grave mistake to assume that the sovereign debt crisis that is unfolding will remain confined to the weaker eurozone economies. For this is more than just a Mediterranean problem with a farmyard acronym. It is a fiscal crisis of the western world. Its ramifications are far more profound than most investors currently appreciate." In other words, Marc Faber 1, CNBC talking heads, 0... as usual.