Archive - Feb 2010

Yes, slowly but surely it is happening. In a federal notice filed earlier, the DOL and Treasury are soliciting a response on what has been on many investors' mind, namely the process of converting 401(k)s into annuity-like products. To wit:

The Department of Labor and the Department of the Treasury (the "Agencies") are currently reviewing the rules under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) and the plan qualification rules under the Internal Revenue Code (Code) to determine whether, and, if so, how, the Agencies could or should enhance, by regulation or otherwise, the retirement security of participants in employer-sponsored retirement plans and in individual retirement arrangements (IRAs) by facilitating access to, and use of, lifetime income or other arrangements designed to provide a lifetime stream of income after retirement.

Just when you thought you were going to miss the Geithner grilling we saw last week, and would need to fill the vacuum with YouTube reruns of Brady asking Geithner when he would finally quit, here comes Congress with some more just announced political soap operas. Tim Geithner is now scheduled to testify a whopping three times this week, mostly relating to the just announced budget, before the Senate Finance Committee (10am on Tuesday), before the House Ways and Means Committee (10am on Wednesday) and before the Senate Budget Committee (10am on Thursday). More importantly, Paul Volcker will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on his proposal to ban prop trading, which according to many is already dead in its tracks, courtesy of a substantial push by those most likely to be impacted by such a ban. Lastly, on the political calendar, Congress will vote on the Senate proposed bill to increase the debt ceiling by $1.9 trillion to $14.294 trillion. Nothing like ongoing political theater to mask for the complete lack of any actual reformative actions yet to be undertaken by this administration, which has so far proved good in only two things: spending and borrowing.

Zero Hedge recently highlighted the ever increasing Federal outlays on unemployment insurance, leading to questions on whether the true unemployment rate, as indicated by actual cash outlays, may be materially higher than indicated in increasingly dubious governmental reports. One proposed alternative has been that the Federal government is directly subsidizing standalone states' depleted unemployment insurance trust funds. Using data provided by ProPublica we have been able to confirm that indeed standalone states are for the most part now bankrupt and have no reserves left in their coffers when it comes to funding ever increasing insurance benefits. As ProPublica indicates, there are now 26 states which have depleted their trust funds, among these are the usual suspects including California, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio, which now rely exclusively on borrowings from the Federal government to prevent the cessation of insurance payments to recently unemployed workers. Currently all states collectively posses $10.7 billion in trust fund assets(with the bulk held by less impacted states such as Washington ($2.6 billion), Louisiana ($1.1 billion) and Oregon ($1.1 billion). On the other hand, 26 states currently rely exclusively on the Federal Government, and have borrowed a combined $30 billion through December to fund payments. ProPublica estimates that another 8 states will be insolvent within 6 months, as their trust funds also approach 0.

In response to several reader inquiries into the Bank Of America report behind the post highlighting the potential outcomes for the Greek nation, we present this simplified summary matrix from BofA that rates the probability of each possible scenario and the implications that would follow as a result. A useful cheat sheet for those sovereign default situations.

Rosie already shared some insights on last week's blockbuster GDP number. Today, he refuses to leave the topic alone, and warns investors to "expect big-time [downward] revisions." Additionally, and more relevantly, the entire validity of the economic reporting segment of the administration is put into ever greater question, and with good reason: "if you believe that GDP result, then you de facto are of the view that all of a sudden, with no capital deepening or major technological change in the past half decade to speak of, the potential growth rate in the United States has reached an epic scale of 7%." And this key reading into the divergence between pumped-up and real revenue growth "When one weighs in a zero Fed funds rate, $862 billion in “stimulus” (and counting) and $700 billion in bank and auto sector bailouts, sales should be running at a 10% clip by now — not 1.7%." With economic data increasingly unreliable (to keep it politically correct), and China having the ability to make or break the U.S., what is the point of continuing the charade that the U.S. is nothing more than an extension of the Chinese experiment across the Pacific.

Stripped of its fancy terminology and confusing mechanics, modern central banking boils down to a legalized counterfeiting operation. If there were suddenly a widespread public outcry to "punt the press," we can bet our hypothetical monarch would mobilize all his allies in the media to discredit the people threatening his source of revenue. In that light, we can understand the reaction today to people calling to "end the Fed." - Robert Murphy

Millions are buying Kindles. But what are they reading? Judging by AMZN's current price and valuations, we predicted more Jim Cramer than Charles Mackay. Amazon's site proved that much for us.

In response to The Times' article on Lloyd's alleged $100 million bonus, Goldman has sent out an email early Monday in which it refutes the number and claims the whole story is "speculative nonsense." As the Dow Jones reports, Goldman's email appeals to everyone's heartstrings in realizing just what a generous, competitor-friendly, bailout-free and, in a word, godly organization it truly is:

"Everything Goldman Sachs has said and done in terms of compensation this year gives the lie to The Times story," the spokesman said. He added that Blankfein received no bonus in 2008, and that Goldman's ratio of compensation and benefits to net revenue in 2009 was the lowest in its
history as a public company.

Goldman has yet to state if the actual bonus number is lower or higher.

At last check Amazon stock was preparing to finally fill that gap down to $100. The reason: investor concern over what the settlement with Macmillan will mean for the company's top and bottom line, and how AMZN's weakness could transfer over to negotiations with other publishing houses. Goldman, always one to jump in the fray, and still sticking with its $160 price target (or a cheap 34x the firm's 2011 EPS estimate) provides the following color.

Tracy Alloway at FT Alphaville has caught what has got to be a glitch in the Bernanke matrix. The Federal Reserve, in what one can assume is likely a very critical resource for bank directors, says that while newly appointed Bank Directors may have such mission critical skills as "basic management experience and skills, an inquisitive attitude, and a willingness to commit time and energy to bank matters" they likely miss "a basic knowledge of banking and what to consider in overseeing a bank." Well thank goodness the Fed is there with this critical 5-minute guide in providing bank directors with all the information they need on how to to run a bank. And they wonder why some are skeptical about the soundness of the bank system.

Correction: due to a data compilation error, the ratio of buys to sell was actually lower: 3.8x. Still, The big bulk buys pushed the ratio to a favorable buying balance. Absent the three big block buys, the balance of the buys accounted for only$10 million.

In one of the more dramatic comebacks seen in the past year, insider buying has finally surpassed insider selling, and that by a wide margin. In the prior week insiders bought $390 million worth of stock while selling just $103 million. Yet the bulk of the buying was concentrated in 3 bulk purchases: MatlinPatterson's acquisition of $300 million worth of FlagStar Bancorp (which judging by its stock price isn't doing all that hot to date - may be worth a second look), Orbitz Worldwide Director Paul Schorr's purchase of $50 million in OWW stock and Intermune direct Jonathan Leff's purchase of $30 million worth of intermune. Aside from these transactions there were no major notable buys or sells: the largest sale was a $6 million sale of DeVry stock by 10% owner Dennis Kellner.

The January Manufacturing ISM follows on the heels of the red-hot GDP number, and blows out all expectations, coming in at 58.4, higher than even the higher end of the range, which was between 53.5 and 58.0. As is well known, a reading above 50 indicates expansion. December Mfg ISM was revised down from 55.9 to 54.9 due to a index rebalancing. Every index in the January ISM report came out at a better reading than December.

The wild west days of social networking as a platform for stock tips and under the radar information exchange may be coming to an end. Or at least FINRA is finally realizing that there is more to stock manipulation than meets the eye, and in a radical change in policy (which up to now had been non-existent on the matter), FINRA will start policing and pouring through tweets, after announcing that "securities firms must keep copies of all business-related communications on social networks, whether those communications are official or from associated persons." Yet indicating just how woefully behind the times the SEC's much-feebler cousin is, FINRA has admitted that "the technology to grab those messages might not exist." The reason why FINRA should be concerned, as Securities Industry News highlights is that "Every Wall Street company – except possibly the smallest ones – have employees using social networks, creating potential liability problems for their employers, for whom they might not be speaking. However, many firms are also actively using these new platforms themselves, to reach out to customers, the general public, and potential new recruits."

RANsquawk 1st February US Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

As we highlighted previously, any investors who had gone long the Brazilian Real (BRL) in January, funding this position with either USD or JPY shorts, had their face ripped off after a loss of anywhere between 7 and 9% in one month (don't annualize that). But instead of covering, here is Goldman with advice on why Einstein's definition of idiocy is for chums. The firm has just come out with a trading call (remember all that huddle stuff?) telling investors to go short $/BRL "on better macro data and hawkish BACEN February 1, 2010." Who knows, maybe mean reversion will work this month. Goldman's target: 1.75 and a stop above 1.94.