Archive - Feb 2010

(1) ESH10 1-minute at 9:05, (2) ESH10 377-minute, (3) ESH10 1-minute at 9:25 am, into 1st rez at 1078, (4) Market Internals (VOLD, ADD, TICK & VIX) ~ 9:48 am, (5) Market Internals (VOLD, ADD, TICK & VIX) ~ 9:57

The carry trade has run wild. Watching the dollar train wreck. Get ready for chop inside a range. Copper has had it. Buy gold against the euro. The Ags look great, long term. The current federal fund rate is asking for trouble. A Hedge Fund Radio exclusive interview

In a titanic call that the puking Charles Schwab E-Trade baby could probably make with its eyes closed, JP Morgan comes out this morning with the conclusion that investors should buy the market unless things turn bad. Isn't that kinda analogous to an analyst saying if the Dow is at 36,000 on December 31, you should have bought. And vice versa. At least JPM analysts Mislav Matejka and Emmanuel Cau admit that investor confidence is slipping. So in an attempt to prop it up, they present the following puff piece with content which everybody who has the pleasure of watching CNBC now and then, is all too aware of.

• A collosal failure of governance: the reappointment of Ben Bernanke (Baseline Scenario)
• As expected, Swiss National Bank interevened in CHF on Friday (FT)
• Following up on Euro-decline observations from the weekend, Euro proving no reserve asset as central banks shift (Bloomberg)
• $3.8 trillion budget to be released accounts for another $100 billion stimulus, proposes new record deficit (Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ)
• Subpoena the Fed (Cumberland)
• Goldman monopolizing market flow information? No way... Front-running the markets and the sickness unto death (Jesse)
• A growing share of Americans' income comes from the government (Financial Armageddon)

• Annual inflation rate in 16 countries that use the euro rose to an 11-month high of 1%.
• Asian stocks fall as China manufacturing reports spur tightening concerns.
• Australian borrowing for home- buying fell to a five-year low last month on higher lending rates.
• China’s manufacturing expanded at second-fastest pace since 2008 in Jan, helped by exports.
• China's stocks slide to four-month low on tightening concern.
• Dubai world silence on debt standstill evaporates bailout rally.
• Euro proving no reserve alternative as Central Banks lead shift in assets.
• European stock markets started February on a negative note following Friday's US decline.

January 2010 is now over and we have a tightening PBOC, a Greek sovereign debt crisis, a rallying USD, declining risk assets, and risk aversion. Here's some macro insight filtered through some technical analysis for timing precision from your favorite college undergrad market analyst.

RANsquawk 1st February Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

Before I get started, I want all to realize that this is not Goldman bashing piece. I think it is a [relatively] well run company, but its PR machine appears to be from Kindergarten land, and the aura of invincibility that it enjoys(ed?) is highly undeserved, as a consequence its historical "aura-based" premium is absolutely unjustified. Case in point...

The financial crisis of 2007–2010 has been called the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Many causes have been proposed, including one suggested by MIT economist Ricardo Caballero that foreign investment demand was a major contributor to America's monetary mess. So, are foreigners responsible for America's financial crisis?