Archive - Mar 2010

In light of the the Herald of Scotland's discovery that massive US-originated armaments are headed for the middle east, it is relevant to evaluate the likely scenario of conflict that could and likely will transpire if the Israel-Iran situation were to escalate. For that we confer to an extended analysis prepared one year ago to the dot by the Center For Strategic and International Studies titled "Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities." While the entire presentation is fascinating, we bring your attention to slide 37, which classifies the specific required payloads for assorted tactical strikes focusing on Iranian nuclear infrastructure. And as the presentation concludes, an Iranian strike by Israel would be practically impossible without direct US involvement. Speaking of which, has anyone seen Robert Gates and Michael Mullen recently?

Instead of going into a lengthy analysis about the pros and cons of Chris Dodd's financial reform bill, I'll let the Senator speak for himself ...

Only a few days have passed since its release, and already the Mainstream Media has forgotten all about the Lehman Examiner Report, with barely an occasional mention. As the CJR points out, this unquestionably massive story of corruption and vice, is being covered up by powered interests controlling all the major news outlets, because just like in the Galleon case, the stench goes not only to the top, (in this case the New York Fed and the SEC), but very likely to various corporations that have vested interests in the conglomerates controlling America's key media organizations. One person, however, who refuses to let it go, is Senator Ted Kaufman, whose determined support for an overhaul of market structure we have followed over the past year. The Senator now moves on to yet another pressing issue: the disclosures of unprecedented impropriety conducted by virtually every person of responsibility within the Lehman organization, as well as associated firms like Ernst & Young, and regulators who were asleep at the wheel during the moment of greatest stress for the American financial system. Kaufman calls for a "a thorough investigation, both civil and criminal, to identify every last person who had knowledge that Lehman was misleading the public about its troubled balance sheet – and that means everyone from the Lehman executives, to its board of directors, to its accounting firm, Ernst & Young. Moreover, if the foreign bank counterparties who purchased the now infamous "Repo 105s" were complicit in the scheme, they should be held accountable as well." Zero Hedge sides with Senator Kaufman in this new endeavor (we have yet to see even one other member of Congress or the Senate stand up and voice their opposition to Lehman's criminal conduct). As Kaufman wisely points out: "I’m concerned that the revelations about Lehman Brothers are just the tip of the iceberg. We have no reason to believe that the conduct detailed last week is somehow isolated or unique. Indeed, this sort of behavior is hardly novel." We look forward to obtaining even more raw data on improprieties conducted by other financial firms, and we hold our breath until we can finally get a glimpse at the heart of that most corrupt and secretive organization of all - the US Federal Reserve.

Spreads widened today with breadth notably negative in credit, intraday ranges relatively low, and HY underperforming IG. Even as equity managed a late day surge back to unch (on low volumes), credit (especially FINLs) was unimpressed, managing to end in the middle of its narrow range. European markets closed weak as FINLs underperformed and were the main driver of spread performance. US FINLs (equities and credit) were weaker before Dodd's announcement, legged a little weaker on his actual words, but then diverged in the late day as XLF took off but CDS remained near wides of the day.

By now everyone has undoubtedly been reading reams of primary and secondary opinions based on Krugman's discussion that it is time to play hardball with China on the FX "manipulation" issue. Retaliatory implications aside (and we are confident China will be full of these) it was ironic that one commentator on CNBC today pointed out that since the CNY is pegged to the USD, shouldn't America be looking at itself first when it comes to currency manipulation, before blaming others. In essence, China is merely taking advantage of the exploding US balance sheet, and adding on top of it its own fiat printing largesse, yet offset by its positive trading surplus. Certainly, Bernanke should have thought of that before it set off on the greatest experiment of failed Keynesianism ever. But now that China has served its purpose and was the economic rebound leader for the past year, it may no longer be as needed. No matter the logic though. The people have spoken and they want CNY blood (or the inverse as the case may be -what is that: lymph?). And not just the people. We have just received a copy of a letter signed by 130 Congressmen, and sent to Tim Geithner and Gary Locke, urging the Treasury to immediately address the "growing problems associated with China's continued currency manipulation" and in essence serving as a springboard to the latent protectionism brewing between China and the US, but never really escalating into all out trade war.

In the Department of the Totally Obvious ...

The euro could be in an over-sold situation, says Goldman Sachs and Dr. Feldstein. However, a potential correction can not disguise the elephant in the champagne room - the political and structural weakness in the single currency union.

Is war just around the corner? While in theory it would make perfect sense to distract Americans from the long road to US insolvency, and other more pressing issues such as the endless criminality all around us, in practice we have so far heard merely rumors. The Herald of Scotland, however, may have credible proof that a US-led attack on Iran approaches and could be just days away. The newspaper has procured proof of an arms shipment to Diego Garcia, which consists of "of 195 smart, guided, Blu-110 bombs and 192 massive 2000lb Blu-117 bombs...put in place for an assault on Iran’s controversial nuclear facilities." Additional insight comes from Dan Plesch, director of the Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy at the University of London: “They are gearing up totally for the destruction of Iran. US bombers are ready today to destroy 10,000 targets in Iran in a few hours." Is war imminent? And will Obama repeat Bush's mistake with Iraq, resulting in a huge spike in oil, coupled with a rush to safety in dollars and/or gold? If inflation will not start on its own, its has to be kindled: preferably by a Blu-117 bomb. Is the relatively long period of market stability and low volatility about to come to a sudden end?

The traditional correlation between the S&P and its key leading indicator the EUR-JPY pair just went out of the window, as the market just hit the nitrous with the 3:30pm buying programs.As always, must. close. above. 1,150... or else it is a quadruple top, whatever the hell that is.

The President says "As the bill moves forward, I will take every opportunity to work with Chairman Dodd and his colleagues to strengthen the bill and will fight against efforts to weaken it. I will oppose any loopholes that could harm consumers or investors, or that allow institutions to avoid oversight that is important to financial stability." Concurrently, the market, armed with the Rosetta stone of Presidential BS translation, where it is opposite day all day every day, rips green in a three-fingered gesture of appreciation.

Sometimes I truly wonder if those who make broad proclamations of "the coast is clear", "everybody is safe", and "all is calm on the western (European) front" ever took the time to glean the facts and evidence before makings such a proclamation. Here is HARD evidence that easily shows that the Greek crisis is FAR from over. I welcome anyone and everyone to challenge the evidence and/or prove otherwise.

And so we learn that the Fed will get even bigger, Volcker will get some love, the SEC will be self-funded, the Fed's (lack of) disclosure requirements, Obama will soon likely appoint Blankfein to head the FRBNY, and that there is absolutely no mention of the undoubtedly biggest problem for the US economy - the GSEs - as usual.

We think that China is an indestructible economic juggernaut but its economy is very fragile and it is sitting on a property bubble which will burst. What China does in response has major implications for their economy and the rest of the world. This is the first part of a three-part series on this topic.

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.

Some weeks ago we presented evidence that the sovereign CDS market pales in comparison with cash notionals outstanding, and furthermore, we demonstrated that sovereign spreads have been led by cash selling, which has been followed only subsequently by CDS moves, not the other way around. The fact, however, did not stop the bashers. Today, ISDA, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, has issued the following statement, which along the lines of our observations, refutes claims that CDS speculators are to blame for widening (but not, shockingly, tightening) in sovereign spread moves.