Archive - Mar 2010

March 29th

Tyler Durden's picture

S&P Validates Worthlessness By Confirming UK AAA Rating (Negative Outlook)





The UK, which many think is quickly becoming the uber-Greece of Europe, just got a pat on the shoulder by S&P.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Is Goldman About To Be Stopped Out For Second Time, Less Than Week After Revised EURUSD Call?





First Goldman was stopped out on the bullish EUR call, now it appears that the firm is about to be stopped out for a second time, less than a week after its revised, bearish call on the EUR currency. This will likely be the second time the newly relocated bank will be massively wrong about the direction of the EURUSD in the span of a month. With the stop out at 1.35, and the euro almost hitting that earlier today, could we see this trade unwinding as early as today? In the meantime, Goldman will have made massive profits on both trades, even as its biggest clients lick their wounds and wonder what the hell just happened.

 

Marla Singer's picture

Endrunning: Catching Up With Europe's Lagging Indicators (29.03.2010)





In the Prose-Laden Land of Labour, One Word Taxes Are King (Or: "Are Sovereigns Too Weak for the Stairs?")

  • The Stamp Tea Bonus Bank Tax gains footing. (Instead of forcing taxpayers- read: everyone- to foot the bill for bank bailouts, we'll force big banks to pay pass the cost down to their customers- read: everyone- to foot the bill). [the wall street journal]
  • Apparently, the House of Commons has decreed that the term "special relationship" (Winston Churchill, 1946) that has referred for decades to the close ties between the US and the UK is no longer to be used.  (Commons see nothing "special" in "special relationship").  [breitbart]
  • Not to be outdone, UK Tories start campaigning on cutting national insurance.  (UK to become health care free market, provide US with cheap generic drugs?) [the financial times]
  • Unconvinced that notorious pack dozen corgis-walker, frequent Buckingham Grand Staircase ascender and sporadic dressage-rider Her Majesty the Queen of England could ascend the 12 foot, 17 step rise, Canada forbade the Queen an opportunity to make the trek.  The Queen is displeased.  ("Not only will I climb those stairs, your heads will roll down them after a quick application of Her Majesty's Royal Axe by Her Majesty's Own Royal Hand.") [times online]
 

Tyler Durden's picture

Personal Savings Rate Drops To Year Lows As Expenditures Once Again Outpace Incomes





The BEA released its February Personal Income and Outlays data: continuing the trend of PI outpacing or same as Expenditures, the sequential change in February Personal Income came in at 0.0%, lower than the 0.1% consensus. On the other side, expenditures increased by 0.3%. Previous revisions indicated that January PI has been an increase of 0.3%, while PCE was greater by 0.4%. Most troubling, this implies that the Personal Savings Rate declined by 0.3% from 3.4% to 3.1%, the lowest this metric has been in over a year. Keep in mind, the primary reason why Goldman sees that 10 Year at 3.25% (as opposed to Morgan Stanley's 5.5% call) is because of the "increased" savings by US consumers. Now that these same consumers have decided to put their money in iMaxiPad pre-orders, maybe Goldman will consider reevaluating their Treasury forecast.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: March 29





  • Fannie and Freddie: the biggest income (Post)
  • Paulson's $32 billion funds prompt too-big-to-succeed concerns (Bloomberg)
  • China jails Rio Tinto staff to 7-14 years (Reuters)
  • Dubai World said to offer shortfall guarantee in debt proposal (Bloomberg)
  • Suicide bombers kill at least 37 in Moscow metro (Moscow Times, Reuters)
  • China knows the time for laying low has ended (FT)
  • Stocks soar but many analysts ask why (NYT)
 

Tyler Durden's picture

Daily Highlights: 3.29.10





  • American shoppers emerging with Best Buy's sales signaling retail revival
  • Asian stock markets traded mostly higher Monday, amid renewed confidence in the region.
  • China gold demand may double within decade, WGC says.
  • Euro rises against Dollar as Greece aid plan boosts confidence in Europe.
  • European banks face a $209B shortfall on property debt refinancing
  • Greece's Papandreou faces $21B bond burden after securing EU's support.
 

Tyler Durden's picture

South Korea Says North Korea May Have Intentionally Floated Mine To Damage, Sink Ship





The story that disappeared quicker than it came, with a flock of seagulls getting the blame, may be coming back again - now AP is saying that South Korea is shifting the attention back to North Korea, saying the communist country may have intentionally floated a mine to damage the sunk ship. More as we get it.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

RANsquawk 29th March Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.





RANsquawk 29th March Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

 

RANSquawk Video's picture

RANsquawk 29th March Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.





RANsquawk 29th March Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

 

naufalsanaullah's picture

The US-China-Australia love triangle





AUD/USD is all you need to watch.

 

Fibozachi's picture

Boeing & Continental: In the Event of an Emergency Landing ....





One of our daily scans returned an oddball pattern at the end of last week that is extremely rare and extremely interesting from a technical perspective; 4 consecutive "filled white" candles. The culprit: none other than Boeing, the big BA, who just yesterday completed an "ultimate-load wing up-bending test on the 787 Dreamliner" with "positive initial results." Though analysis of the data for the long-delayed Dreamliner will take several weeks to sift through, we took a few snapshots and present a technical profile for the big BA and Continental Airlines (CAL), which stood out as another utterly fugly issue ripe for reversal.

 

madhedgefundtrader's picture

Former Secretary of State, James Baker III, Tells Iran to Fold Its Nuclear Program, Or Else





The “tough guy” approach to Iran. Taking on the “America Bashers”. The spectacular growth of China and India is largely the result of open American trade policies. The biggest threats to American dominance are runaway borrowing and entitlements. “Even our power has its limits.” An exclusive interview with former Secretary of State and Secretary of the Treasury, James Baker III.

 

March 28th

Tyler Durden's picture

Capitulation: Biggest Weekly Spike In S&P Large Contracts On The CFTC In History - $19 Billion In Index Shorts Covered





This is what capitulation looks like:

The chart is an indication of the net speculative contracts on the CFTC as disclosed by the weekly COT report. In particular, this tracks the S&P Large contracts (x 250). Last week saw the single biggest weekly short cover in the history of this data set, indicating one of several things: 1) some large fund(s) capitulated and covered a major short position, 2) the ongoing forced short buy-ins by the State Streets of the world have finally yielded results, 3) someone is positioning for a massive move higher in the market by going net short to neutral. The net weekly change in contracts of 66,043 is a record, and involves a staggering amount of capital: the money involved is 1,150x250x66,000 or roughly $19 billion. A weekly move of this magnitude was only ever seen once before, on March 24, 2009, when the government had to cement the bottom of the market following the 666 low. As the Large uses Open Outcry, it explains why we were getting numerous emails from pit traders indicating that Goldman was buying up billions worth of S&P Large.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Day Trading Wizards? Or Just Newton's First Law





One of the most amusing side effects of the recent non-stop, free-liquidity, forced-covering rally, is a deja vu flash back to a decade ago: a surge in day traders. The New York Times presents a romantic look at this rare breed of traders which emerges every time the market is in melt-up mode, be it in the dot.com days, during the credit bubble, or now. And, just like so many times before, as soon as the market peaks, and subsequently crashes, these various "traders" evaporate, and the assorted business models associated with catering to the day trading clientele, be it heatmapping services by every discount broker, or assorted Twitter services, go the way of the dodo. Until the next bubble re-emerges. As for the fabled secrets behind day trading technique, the NYT is laconic: nothing more than Newton's First Law of Motion. Alas, this is recipe for unmitigated disaster, when one considers that day traders are at the bottom of the information and transaction latency pyramid. And when one factors in transaction costs (sorry day traders, soft dollars work for hedge funds when the trading is with other people's money; in your case money talks and BS walks). Of course, in the meantime, this strategy, just like any other concoction to suit the times, could very well be profitable. Until it isn't. Then again, profitability instills a false sense of security. and the conviction that one will pull the plug on winning trades ahead of everyone else. Good luck.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Greece [Will/Will Not] Issue 6%+ Debt This Week, Even As Evans-Pritchard Summarizes It Best: "Greece Is Drowning"





Something funny happened on the road to a Greek bailout: nothing. Well, a few exceptions: Germany and the ECB are now enemies, nobody knows what the hell the Maastricht rules really are, the ratings agencies are discredited beyond repair as even the ECB says its own internal bureaucrats can do a better job at modelling the Greek AAA rating... Yet Greek debt is still yielding 6%+. If anyone will recall, the primary concern that various administration George Pap[...]'s had, was that Greek debt was "unfairly" yielding double where German debt is. So yeah, lots of talk, more non-bailout bailouts, and in meantime, Greek default risk is pretty much where it was two months ago. Which is why speculation that emerged toward the end of last week that Greece will promptly issue new debt, is now being squashed by G-Pap (fin min or FM, not to be confused with the prime min or PM). In the end, it is all irrelevant: as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says, the end is close for Greece.

 
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