Archive - Apr 13, 2010

• Propaganda: Tim Geithner Op-Ed in WaPo - How to prevent the next financial crisis (WaPo) - start by voting me out of office
• The bank bailouts created the crisis (RCM)
• More surprising revalations about Lehman book-cooking which the SEC has and will ignore - Lehman channeled risks through alter ego firm (NYT)
• Hu tells Obama: China to make its own call on yuan (Reuters)
• JPMorgan profit may show decline on consumer lending (Bloomberg)
• UK market may face turmoil as overnight-count campaign fails (Bloomberg)
• Small business confidence hits 8 month low as mirage economic imporvements (i.e. DJIA) have no bearing with reality (Bloomberg)

Greg Peters, and other strategists from Morgan Stanley are out warning anyone who will listen that what is going on in the economy is a fool's rush (we would add predicated by momos who know nothing about reading financial statements but everything about dollowing a trend) and that MS' core advise to clients is to "sell into strength." Here is how Morgan Stanley differs from the consensus. Also discussed are returns before and after the EPS season, and how to hedge surging implied asset correlations.

Greece is giddy about not only placing 3 and 6 month Bills, but also upsizing the issues from €600 to €780 million. Well, when the yield involved is more than double that of just 3 months ago, and an all time records, and the country has the full backing of the EMU, and the IMF just created a $550 billion new bailout credit facility to make sure nobody ever fails, we are shocked it took yields of 4.55% and 4.85% to get these done. To be sure, without the bailout of Germany et al, Greece would have been paying 7% on both, meaning the 2% differential is now implicitly (for now) borne by German and American taxpayers - that amounts to $42 million. Next up: let's see if Greece can price something beyond the immediate near-term horizon, especially past the guaranteed 3 year point.

• Asia stocks, metals decline as Alcoa sales miss estimates; Yen strengthens.
• China may float Yuan by June 30, avoid one-off revaluation, Bloomberg survey.
• China's biggest banks face $70B capital shortfall, ICBC's Yang says.
• Global IT spending expected to rise 5.3% in 2010 - Gartner.
• Hu says China to follow own path on Yuan as Obama pushes for 'market' rate.
• Profits for big banks dimmed by home-equity loan loss seen at $30B
• World oil demand to hit record high this year

RANsquawk 13th April Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

RANsquawk 13th April Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

Yes, we need no bananas ...

The NBER said Monday that it's too soon to call the recession over, although many of its members think it is. Is it over? Is there a flaw in their analysis?