Archive - Apr 27, 2010

Because we all know rumors are always false. Bankingnews.gr admoinishes its readers (courtesy of crude Google translation) to "not be carried by rumors of bankruptcy bank - is completely unfounded." With the entire Greek airforce calling in sick, could Goldman just be a smokescreen to the Persian invasion?

All of Europe is scrambling to issue new debt and refinance in advance of what more and more are seeing as a credit crisis soon to envelop not only the European periphery but its core as well. We all know what is happening in Greece and Portugal. It appears Italy may be next: the country sold €9.5 billion in 6 Month Bills at 0.814%, up dramatically from 0.568% just a month ago, on March 26. What is scariest is that the Bid To Cover on the auction tumbled from 1.56 at the previous auction to a just barely above passing 1.02. At this rate Italy will be unable to find bidders for its next Bill auction. And if it can't sell Bills, it can't roll the easiest part of its curve. Also, unlike Germany, Italy does not have the "flight to safety" appeal. Keep in mind that Italy, just like Greece, dipped freely in the Goldman debt/GDP swap "adjustment" mechanism. We are confident that as contagion fears grip Portugal, Italy is sure to be next. And confirming that the market is seeing Italy as an even greater risk than Spain, the country sold 1.7 billion euros of six-month securities to yield 0.736%, up from 0.482 percent on March 23. On the other hand, Spain has to sell €150 billion in euros in 2010: it has so far only sold 26% of this amount. We wish them best as they scramble to fill the quota.

• Mortgage deals under scrutiny as Goldman faces senators (NYT)
• Stocks drop (not here though, we should go green the second European markets close) on European debt-contagion concerns (Bloomberg)
• Vince Reinhart: The deflation club (The American)
• Volcanic ash crisis cost airlines GBP2.2 billion (Telegraph)
• Senator Dodd's carve out for cronies (Post)
• Ukrainian opposition hurls eggs and smoke bombs in parliament (FT)
• Tim Sykes and Kaja Whitehouse sued by SpongeTech for $43 million (HFN)
• Squids of a feather: Warren Buffett and Prince Alwaleed's secret letters (Telegraph) even as Alwaleed says he'll go on working with Goldman (BLoomberg)

For those wishing to watch the full 10:00am Goldman hearing live and commercial free we suggest the following C-Span link. The witness panel for today's hearing is presented. We will update this post with all Goldman-relevant news as the day progresses.

• Brazilian policy makers poised to raise borrowing costs at the fastest pace since 2003.
• China may use capital requirements for developers as policy tool to cool property market.
• Cost of insuring Greece's debt against default soared to a new record.
• Portugal suffering Greek debt contagion puts pressure on EU's bond markets.
• Republicans joined in the Senate to block Democrats' overhaul of financial regulation.
• Shanghai shares down 2.1%, with real estate stocks down on policy concerns.
• Trend in U.S. home prices may have been positive for first time since 2006

Greece 5y CDS now at a meaningless 762bps, which is the highest non-upfront CDS spread for any sovereign. This alone should be enough for another monster day in the decoupled algo-driven US markets. And Portugal is now where Greece was just a few weeks ago: its own CDS just hit 350 bps (40 wider), as its 10 spread widens by 17 bps to 235 bps. While the Greek negative basis is still about 250 bps, Portugal is still less pronounced. We expect the Portuguese basis to hit negative territory soon. According to CMA the biggest wideners are all Spanishand Portuguese entities: Enel SpA at 137.07(+16.04), Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (SUB) at 215.22 (+23.25), Banco Popolare SC at 164.46 (+15.67), Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA at 122.64 (+10.82). As for Greece, it's too late: Germany says country may have to leave the Eurozone, as we suspected was Germany's intention all along.

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX 27/04/10

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 27/04/10

For those who have forgotten the implications of the highly leveraged and opaque financial holdings (the true value of which rests at the mercy of market sentiment) and can turn blind eye to the highly volatile nature of the trading revenues combined with a literal tsunami of regulatory pressure and potential litigious onslaught (all issues which we have repetitively brought up in the past as what appears to be the sole voice of contrarian reason), Goldman Sachs holds a strong investment proposition. However, if fundamental considerations such as the company’s solvency, true economic profit (not the accounting earnings you hear preached from your brokerage’s sell side marketing propaganda cum research reports) and the sustainability of income are to be considered, GS should NOT appear among the preferred lot.